Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
501 FXUS61 KRNK 110705 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 305 AM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Marginal Risk for thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts along and east of the Blue Ridge this afternoon. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showery and stormy pattern continues through Saturday night. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Showery and stormy pattern continues through Saturday night. A quasi-stationary cold front will stretch across the region, anchoring itself from northern Texas through Kentucky into central West Virginia and northern Virginia. Early this morning, an initial wave riding along this boundary will push showers through northern West Virginia and into Maryland. Once this lead wave and its rain clear to the east, the front will sink slightly further south, allowing showers to drift over Greenbrier and the Allegheny Highlands around sunrise. Meanwhile, a second wave lingering over Memphis, Tennessee, will begin tracking just north of the local area. This system will push the frontal boundary even further south while interacting with intense afternoon heat in the upper 80s to mid-90s and oppressive dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s. This destabilization will trigger showers and scattered thunderstorms throughout the afternoon and evening. The Storm Prediction Center has placed areas along and east of the Blue Ridge under a Marginal Risk for severe weather today. Although the storms will lack organization, they will remain capable of producing locally damaging wind gusts. Looking ahead, a third and final wave will arrive on Saturday, bringing widespread rainfall. While severe potential will persist into Saturday, its exact placement will depend on whether the boundary sinks fully south of the area or stalls overhead. Flash flooding will pose a localized threat with each passing wave, with the risk peaking during Saturday`s rain as the ground becomes thoroughly saturated. Sunday through Tuesday look quieter with mostly dry weather, and this quiet stretch may even last longer than that. We will see a similar set up with a slow-moving, strung out front to our north for mid week into the end of next week. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A cold front will slowly approach the region today, bringing an increase in high clouds throughout the morning hours. These thick clouds will suppress widespread fog formation, though KLWB will remain the sole exception. Rain showers linked to the incoming front will move across KLWB beginning around sunrise. As the afternoon unfolds under light southwest to west winds, strong atmospheric instability will trigger strong storms at KBCB and KROA, with the severe activity shifting toward KLYH and KDAN by late afternoon into the evening, though confidence in the exact timing remains low. Overnight, the frontal boundary will stall over portions of the area, creating a distinct ceiling split. Locations north of the stalled front will fall into IFR or lower cloud coverage, while areas to the south will hover between MVFR and low-end VFR conditions. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Rain and thunderstorm activity will redevelop on Saturday and persist through late Saturday night, finally tapering off during the early hours of Sunday morning. This system will bring widespread sub- VFR conditions marked by periods of moderate to heavy rainfall, reduced ceilings, localized fog, and gusty, erratic winds near any active thunderstorms. Once the system exits, drier conditions and widespread VFR weather will return on Monday and Tuesday. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...RCS AVIATION...RCS