220
FXUS61 KRNK 212338
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
738 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A much cooler and drier airmass will enter the region tonight
thanks to a surface high pressure settling into the Northeast.
This will lead to several days without rain chances for most of
the area through the end of the work week before a moist airmass
out of the southeast surges back into the Mid-Atlantic states on
Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 730 PM EDT Monday...

Key Message:

1) Isolated shower and thunderstorms along the southern Blue
Ridge on Tuesday. The rest of the region will remain cooler and
drier with mostly cloudy conditions.

Just a few pockets of showers out there this evening, mainly
along a boundary from southeast KY into northwest NC. Rainfall
rates are not quite as high as the past few nights as convection
is not as strong. Still some training of showers over Smyth
county and portions of western Tazewell may cause some low lying
flooding.

High-res models keep widely scattered showers around into this
evening, one area along/south of the VA/NC border and another
across the central Piedmont. Any thunder should be limited.

Previous discussion...


The backdoor front that is pushing through the region today will
be south of the area on Tuesday, and will predominantly be
draped across Georgia and South Carolina. In the wake of this
front, a much cooler and drier airmass will wedge its way into
the region. This will keep rain chances out of most of the area,
with the exception of those in NW North Carolina and the
southern Blue Ridge in Virginia, where easterly/northeasterly
flow will cause some upslope showers and thunderstorms to
develop. This activity will predominantly remain isolated in
nature, with only minor impacts possible given antecedent
conditions over the last week or so. Outside of isolated showers
and thunderstorms across the southern Blue Ridge, the area will
remain cooler and drier, with mostly cloudy skies early giving
way to partly cloudy skies by the afternoon and evening.
Temperatures will generally climb into the low to mid 80s across
the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1230 PM EDT Monday...

Key Message:

1. Warming trend begins Wednesday

2. Dry weather through Thursday.

High pressure wedges south over the area Tuesday night into
Wednesday night. Residual low level moisture and an easterly fetch
off the Atlantic will likely keep a low stratus deck in the area.
Some breaks in the clouds may occur in the afternoon Wednesday, but
will fill back in overnight. These clouds along with an easterly
flow will help keep Wednesday`s high temperatures in the upper 70s
to lower 80s across the mountains and low to mid 80s in the
foothills and Piedmont. These temperatures are 3F cooler than normal.

The surface wedge will break Thursday as high pressure aloft tracks
over the region. Temperatures will moderate into the 80s west of the
Blue Ridge to the upper 80s to lower 90s east. A stray shower may
pop-up over the mountains late in the afternoon, but will fade
through the evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1245 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

1. Above normal temperatures and humidity returns to the area.

2. Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase into the weekend.

An upper level ridge will move overhead Friday then wobbles along
the southeast coast over the weekend. This ridge will bring heat and
humidity back into the region along with daily chances of afternoon
and evening showers and thunderstorms starting Friday. Over next
weekend into early next week, waves tracking around this ridge will
bring a higher chance and areal coverage of storms. Convection is
expected to start over the mountains in the afternoon, then drift
east into the foothills and piedmont in the evening. If this upper
level ridge breaks down or travels southward, a cold front may move
across the region Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.

Temperatures will run 5F to 10F warmer than normal through the
period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 730 PM EDT Monday...

VFR conditions are expected for most of the taf period, but some
showers may skirt by LYH between 00z-01z, possibly DAN.

Lower cigs appear possible later tonight as flow turns easterly.
Most sites look to drop to MVFR possibly IFR with fog as well. These
restrictions should lift by the 13-14 UTC timeframe on Tuesday
as dry air continues to make its way into the area as high
pressure continues to wedge itself down the southeast. Some
isolated storms will be possible for BLF on Tuesday; however,
chances remain low and will likely remain south of BLF/BCB into
the NC mountains.


OUTLOOK...

Anticipate VFR Wed - Fri outside any late night fog with the
frontal boundary mainly south of the region into Georgia and
South Carolina. Sub-VFR conditions look to return by the weekend
as chances for shower and thunderstorm activity increases once
again.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EB
NEAR TERM...EB/WP
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...BMG/EB/WP