361
FXUS61 KRNK 072332
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
732 PM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front extends from the northern Mid-Atlantic to
the southern Plains. Waves of low pressure rippling east along
the front will result in scattered showers and thunderstorms
across the region through Tuesday. It will remain seasonably
warm and humid with near to slightly above normal temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 730 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Message:

1) Light showers and fog overnight, additional showers and
thunderstorms Sunday.

Convection is ending across the area with the loss of daytime
heating. The next short wave arrives after midnight, and expect
additional showers due to a dying MCS moving into the area.
After a break towards morning, additional convection will
develop in afternoon and evening. There is a slight risk for the
eastern section of the forecast area, with damaging winds being
the biggest threat.

Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 60s for most.


As of 300 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Message:

1) Scattered showers and thunderstorms through Sunday with
marginal risk of severe in the mountains and slight risk for
severe storms in the piedmont.

Impulses of low pressure will continue to ripple east along a
nearly stationary frontal boundary that runs from the northern
Mid-Atlantic coast to the Red River Valley of TX/OK. This will
maintain daily threat for showers and thunderstorms. The
forecast area is on the south side of this front, so
temperatures will remain warm, and the air will remain moist
with dewpoints in the 60s to near 70.

The Impulse that came through earlier in the day Saturday brought
considerable cloudiness to the area...CAPE slowly recovering
Saturday afternoon. Models suggest modest recovery for the
remainder of the day with CAPE across southside VA and Piedmont
of NC climbing to around 1500 J/KG before sunset...and 500-1000
j/kg elsewhere. This should support scattered showers areawide
through the evening with potential for some stronger storms
across Southside VA and the Piedmont of NC.

Next impulse is crossing the TN valley and may bring another
round of showers with embedded thunderstorms to the area late
tonight. Similar to what happened this morning, clouds from this
second impulse may muddle the CAPE for Sunday, leaving us with
another day of clouds and morning showers, followed by some
storms for the afternoon if we muster enough solar insolation.
Attm, convective allowing models (CAMS) are focusing the best
chance for thunderstorms Sunday afternoon over the piedmont...so
will maintain the highest pops there for Sunday`s forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for more showers and thunderstorms by late
Monday into Tuesday.

2) Temperatures will remain at near to above normal values for this
time of year.

An upper level shortwave trough will exit by Sunday night, which
should bring a reduction in convective activity. Drier weather
appears to last through Monday morning. However, a more potent
upper level trough will arrive from the Great Lakes and push a
cold front towards the Appalachian Mountains by late Monday
into Tuesday. This front combined with heat and moisture should
yield another chance of showers and thunderstorms, and there is
a marginal risk of severe weather as some of the stronger storms
might produce large hail and damaging winds. Convective
activity will eventually move eastward later on Tuesday, and
drier air should arrive by Tuesday night. Temperatures
throughout this whole forecast period should stay at near to
above normal values for this time of year.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is increasing for drier conditions during Wednesday
and Thursday.

2) Showers and thunderstorms may return by Friday and Saturday.

The models are coming into better agreement with high pressure
settling across the Appalachian Mountains during Wednesday and
Thursday. A frontal boundary should stall across the Southeast,
but it will begin to lift back northward as a warm front
towards Friday and Saturday as high pressure weakens and another
cold front forms in the Plains. With the return in moisture and
synoptic lift by the end of the week, chances of showers and
thunderstorms will rise again. Temperatures should trend warmer
towards the latter half of the week with values running about
five to ten degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 730 PM EDT Saturday...

Stationary front over the region will result in highly variable
flight conditions through the remainder of the weekend.
Scattered showers and storms along the front will produced
periods of sub-VFR conditions. Shower activity lacks any
organization, so confidence low with respect to timing within
the TAFs. Greatest TS chance this evening appears is south and
east of Danville VA (DAN).

Winds generally west to NW under 10 kts through this
evening (could have gusts with any TSRA) and light to calm in
the overnight. Fog chances tonight appear limited due to the
extensive cloud cover, but there will likely be some ridge
obscurations due to some of the lower cloud bases over the
mountains.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Daily chances of morning rain showers from lingering
thunderstorm activity pushing into the area combined with
daily chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms will lead
to high chances for sub-VFR conditions on Sunday, Monday and
Tuesday before a much stronger cold front pushes into the area
and high pressure returns by Wednesday. This will bring the
return of VFR conditions at nearly all terminals. With moisture
lingering in the area through the end of the weekend and into
the beginning of the work week, valley fog and low CIGs look
possible as well each morning.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM/SH
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...PM/SH