Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
734 FXUS61 KRNK 121037 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 637 AM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025 .SYNOPSIS... The weather pattern will generally remain unchanged through the weekend. With a warm and moist airmass lingering across the region, expect isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms each day will be capable of producing strong gusty winds and localized flash flooding. During the overnight hours, patchy to areas of fog and low clouds will be possible, especially for river valleys and areas that saw rain the previous day. Temperatures across the area will generally run around or just above normal values for this time of year. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 230 AM EDT Saturday... Key Message: 1) Coverage of thunderstorms increases for today, with locally heavy downpours that may lead to localized flash flooding and strong gusty winds. Mid and upper level forcing for ascent looks to be lacking once again today; however, some weak upper level divergence is forecast to develop across the 250mb level where a 30-40 knot southwesterly jet streak settles across the Ohio river valley. This may provide the area slightly more upper level forcing compared to Friday, but it will remain weak. With overall less subsidence across the area as the surface high pressure and upper level ridge push east of the region, there should more scattered shower and thunderstorm development today. Shower and thunderstorms are expected to develop along mountain locations from orographic lift, and then become outflow dominant through the remainder of the evening. A few of these storms will be capable of producing strong downburst winds as DCAPE values look to be around 1000 J/Kg across the area. Along with strong winds, the potential for localized flash flooding will also be possible, with PWATs still lingering in the 1.7-1.8 inch range. Temperatures look to remain in the low 90s east of the Blue Ridge, and low to mid 80s west of the Blue Ridge. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 215 AM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: 1) Afternoon storms remain possible each day of the period. 2) Near-normal temperatures persist. Zonal flow continues across the Eastern US, with upper-level shortwaves propagating eastward north of a ridge across the Deep South. One of these shortwaves, along with a cold front draped across the Ohio Valley will move towards the area on Sunday. A leeside surface trough will set up east of the Appalachians, which will aid in afternoon thunderstorm development, along with the aforementioned synoptic setup. Surface dewpoints in the 60s/70s along with diurnal heating will allow for widespread storms. The best chance will be north of I-64, nearest to the upper-level support. Areas to the south will still likely see storms, but the upper-trough flattens out into the Northeast US as it moves into our area, which will limit the support farther south into NC. Due to this, the severe weather risk is limited to the Virginia Piedmont, with a Marginal Risk for Sunday afternoon. Isolated damaging wind gusts will be the threat. Monday will once again see typical afternoon thunderstorms, but drier air aloft will limit the convection west of the Blue Ridge, though scattered storms will remain possible. The Piedmont will be closer to the surface trough, which moves towards the coast, with a more widespread coverage of storms. Tuesday will see the main cold front move into the area, but begin to lose strength. Best chance of storms will be along the NC/VA line and south along the front. Storms each day last into the evening before dissipating overnight. Flash flooding continues to be a risk during the period, though it will be more isolated due to the more scattered nature of the storms expected. Total QPF through the period varies, with around 0.25" area-wide, and 0.50-1.00"+ under the heavier thunderstorms that occur, mainly east of the Blue Ridge. Locally higher amounts will be possible. Temperatures remain near normal through the period, with highs in the 80s to low 90s for Sunday and Monday, before falling into the 80s area-wide on Tuesday as the cold front moves through. Lows will be in the 60s to low 70s each morning. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 215 AM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: 1) A stagnant pattern keeps daily storm chances through the period. 2) Temperatures continue to remain near normal through the end of the week. The cold front that moves through on Tuesday will stall and become a stationary front across our area on Wednesday before fizzling out late week. Pattern-wise, little change means warm and humid weather, with afternoon pulse like storms each day and PoPs around 40-50%. Storms will fire during the heating of the day and dissipate overnight, repeating each day. The Bermuda High stays in place, keeping a southerly flow of moisture into the area at the surface, where a trough continues to sit. A weak upper ridge forms across the Southeastern US, with the clockwise flow bringing moisture at the mid-levels into our area. The typical summertime pattern persists into the weekend, when a strong cold front moves in and finally clears the area out. Due to the stagnant pattern persisting, temperatures remain virtually unchanged, with highs in the 80s to around 90 each day, and lows in the 60s to low 70s each morning. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 630 AM EDT Saturday... VFR conditions are expected to prevail through much of the TAF period; however, some fog and low stratus has developed at DAN, LYH, and LWB this morning. Restrictions from any fog and low stratus this morning lift within 1-2 hours at all terminals. More scattered shower and thunderstorm activity is anticipated today as widespread subsidence pushes east of the area. This will bring in chances for thunder at nearly all terminals, with BCB, ROA, LYH, and DAN likely seeing the best chances today. Showers and thunderstorms may bring periods of restrictions; however, these restrictions should remain brief. Overall, expect light southerly winds today at around 5 knots or less. Additional fog may develop tonight into Sunday morning, but will likely develop after 06 UTC. .EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... The weather pattern will change very little through early next week, remaining conducive for isolated to scattered afternoon & evening storms, with higher coverage on some days more than others. Outside of storms, expect VFR conditions but with the potential for locally dense fog and MVFR/IFR stratus developing overnight, especially for locations that received significant rainfall during the evening prior. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EB NEAR TERM...EB SHORT TERM...JCB LONG TERM...JCB AVIATION...EB