985
FXUS61 KRNK 181312
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
912 AM EDT Fri Oct 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure, both surface and aloft, will build over the area
and intensify through the weekend and into early next week. This
will result in mostly clear skies and slowly warming
temperatures. No precipitation is expected through at least the
first half of next week. Look for low temperatures in the 30s
and 40s through early next week with high temperatures gradually
warming into the 60s and 70s over the weekend.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 910 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1. Temperatures have risen above freezing in the west, and the
threat for frost has ended in the east. Therefore, the Freeze
Warning and Frost Advisory have expired.

2. Warmer today as upper level ridging builds overhead.

West of the Blue Ridge, temperatures have climbed a few degrees
above freezing, though a few locations are still right around 30
to 32 degrees. Temperatures will continue to climb this morning
and through the afternoon with high pressure and plenty of
sunshine overhead. Some patchy river fog was observed in the
river valleys mainly west of the Blue Ridge, but any fog still
lingering should dissipate quickly as the morning progresses.


Previous discussion below...

As of 200 AM EDT Friday...


Calm winds and clear skies have lead to a quick drop in
temperatures this morning. Expecting plenty of below freezing
readings by daybreak and perhaps a few locations in the upper
20s in the more sheltered higher elevation valleys.

Temperatures quickly warm and should see 60s across the area
today and perhaps a few low 70s across the Virginia/North
Carolina Piedmont.

Another chilly night tonight, but not expected to be quite as
cold as this morning. However, should still should have plenty
of 30s again tonight.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 430 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1). Continued mostly clear with zero precipitation through the
period.

2). Morning low temperatures rising a couple of degrees on
average each day. More noticeable warming during the afternoons.

A strong ridge of high pressure aloft will continue to build
across the region through the weekend. 500mb heights will rise
from the 550-560dm range to around 592dm by Sunday and hover in
the 580-590 range well into next week. The ridge of high
pressure will become vertically stacked with Canadian high
pressure evident at the surface anchored over the Mid-
Atlantic/northeast through the period. Large scale subsidence
will promote a very dry air mass with 10-20% mean RH. Despite
the unusually high 500mb heights, the location of the surface
high to our northeast will temper the warmup with surface
temperatures only creeping up a few degrees each day from their
current levels. 850mb temperatures do rise from the current
single digit positive values toward the +12C to perhaps +14C
range, but any air mass closer to +20C remains in the south
central/southwestern U.S. Maximum temperatures will warm the
quickest and trend toward 10 degrees above normal by Sunday.
Minimum temperatures will be slower to warm with 30s to lower
40s still common throughout the CWA through Saturday gradually
rising mostly into the 40s by the early to mid part of next
week. Precipitation probabilities remain zero throughout this
forecast period with high pressure and very stable dry air in
place throughout the atmospheric column.

/Confidence Levels in Forecast Parameters/
- Moderate to High Confidence in Temperatures,
- Very High Confidence in Zero Precipitation Probabilities,
- Moderate Confidence in Wind Direction,
- High Confidence in Wind Speed.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 430 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1). Continued mostly clear with zero precipitation through the
period.

2). Morning low temperatures rising a couple of degrees on
average each day. More noticeable warming during the afternoons.

A strong ridge of high pressure aloft will continue to build
across the region through the weekend. 500mb heights will rise
from the 550-560dm range to around 592dm by Sunday and hover in
the 580-590 range well into next week. The ridge of high
pressure will become vertically stacked with Canadian high
pressure evident at the surface anchored over the Mid-
Atlantic/northeast through the period. Large scale subsidence
will promote a very dry air mass with 10-20% mean RH. Despite
the unusually high 500mb heights, the location of the surface
high to our northeast will temper the warmup with surface
temperatures only creeping up a few degrees each day from their
current levels. 850mb temperatures do rise from the current
single digit positive values toward the +12C to perhaps +14C
range, but any air mass closer to +20C remains in the south
central/southwestern U.S. Maximum temperatures will warm the
quickest and trend toward 10 degrees above normal by Sunday.
Minimum temperatures will be slower to warm with 30s to lower
40s still common throughout the CWA through Saturday gradually
rising mostly into the 40s by the early to mid part of next
week. Precipitation probabilities remain zero throughout this
forecast period with high pressure and very stable dry air in
place throughout the atmospheric column.

/Confidence Levels in Forecast Parameters/
- Moderate to High Confidence in Temperatures,
- Very High Confidence in Zero Precipitation Probabilities,
- Moderate Confidence in Wind Direction,
- High Confidence in Wind Speed.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 500 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Stretch of Zero Precipitation Probabilities likely continues
through at least the first half of next week, potentially
creeping upward to 10-15% by late Tuesday, mainly far
west/northwest parts of the CWA.

2). Morning low temperatures finally warming up closer to
normal levels.a bit to slightly above normal levels. High
temperatures reaching 5-10 degree above normal levels through
the first half of next week.

The strong subtropical ridge will reach its maximum strength and
influence over the region Sunday around 591-592dm, Thereafter,
it will slowly break down and be shunted southward as a short
wave skirts the northwestern part of the area late Tuesday into
Wednesday. Today this short wave/frontal boundary looks weaker
than yesterday and starved for moisture. Latest guidance
supports removing the mention of any rain, even across the
northwest part of the CWA for Tuesday-Wednesday, with any chance
of precipitation confined mainly to areas along and west of the
Alleghany front. Overall, even beyond the first part of the
week, all of the models have trended drier with the MEXMOS and
loops of simulated radar reflectivity from the GFS showing
little if any chance for precipitation perhaps through the end
of October?

850mb temperatures only warm to around +12C and remain in that
range through the entire period. Any really warm air closer to
+20C remains in the Midwest/Southern Plains or Mid-South. Thus,
little change in temperatures through the period is expected.
Afternoon high temperatures will hover in the 10-degree above
normal level, with mostly 60s mountains and 70s elsewhere. Low
temperatures will be mostly in the 40s, except the usually
favored spots will continue to see lows in the mid to upper 30s
for a couple more days. Elsewhere lows will be mostly in the 40s
with even some areas in the 50s by Tue/Wed as a result of
increased nighttime cloud cover.

/Confidence Levels in Forecast Parameters/
- Moderate to High Confidence in Temperatures,
- Moderate to High Confidence in Precipitation Probabilities,
- Moderate Confidence in Wind Direction and Speed.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 645 AM EDT Friday...

Strong high pressure will continue to bring widespread VFR
conditions. No restrictions throughout the valid 24 hour TAF
period.

Winds remain light and variable throughout the period as
well.

Extended Aviation Outlook...

High pressure will keep VFR conditions through early next week.
Dry weather and light winds should persist throughout this
time, and a warming trend will also take place.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...AS/BMG
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...BMG