980
FXUS61 KRNK 251021
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
621 AM EDT Fri Jul 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Heat and humidity builds into the weekend lasting through next
Wednesday along with an increasing chance for afternoon and
evening thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 100 AM EDT Friday...

Key Message:

1) Hot weather returns today.

Any fog in the valleys this morning will scour out by 9am.

Overall, expecting dry conditions through early Friday before
winds turn west-southwesterly drawing heat and humidity from the
Mississippi Valley up and over the mountains. Temperatures
should respond quickly once mixing begins on Friday with
temperatures reaching the lower to mid 90s for the foothills and
piedmont, and well into the 80s for the mountains. Dewpoints
will also trend up, suggesting heat indices in the piedmont
should eclipse 100 for mid-late afternoon. We issue heat
advisories when the heat index reaches 105, something that will
likely be entertained for the weekend.

Any storm activity Friday is expected to be isolated. Enough
CAPE may become available for the NC High Country and for areas
north of I-64 in WV/VA. Aside from that, no significant hazards
expected from thunderstorms Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Hot.

2) Chance of precipitation this weekend.

An upper level ridge will continue to move westward across the Deep
South through the weekend. The ridge will be large and strong enough
to continue a heat wave over the Mid-Atlantic as well as most of
eastern CONUS. Dew points are expected to be in upper 60s to mid 70s
for most of the region while high temperatures will be in the 80s
and 90s. With these temperatures, heat index is forecast to be
between 90-105 degrees with the hottest temperatures areas east of
the Blue Ridge. Heat Advisories may be considered depending on how
intense this heat trend becomes.

500mb winds will become more northwesterly as a result of the
ridge`s movement and will provide transport of perturbations
for storm initiation this weekend. The signal for widespread
thunderstorms and showers is stronger for Sunday than Saturday
as model guidance depicts a stronger shortwave and vorticity
passage. Shear, as usual, will be limited and will struggle to
get above 20 knots. Even so, isolated strong wind gusts may be
possible and with PWATs between 1.5-2.0 inches, heavy rainfall
will likely accompany these storms.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 130 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Hot trend continues.

2) Daily shower and thunderstorm chances.

An upper level ridge will continue to move westward, but hot and
moist conditions will persist for the first half of next week. High
temperatures will be from the mid-80s to mid-90s and dew points will
be in the 60s and 70s regionwide. As a result, heat index values are
likely to remain mostly in the 90s but with values reaching up to
105 for areas east of the Blue Ridge.

The northwest flow aloft will permit additional shortwaves through
the area and, combined with the moist and hot conditions, provide
daily chances of showers and thunderstorms. This weather pattern
will continue until late next week when a cold front from a large
upper level low over Canada looks to pass through. While this will
be monitored in the coming days, this front may be the first best
chance for some decent reprieve from the hot and moist conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 619 AM EDT Friday...

LIFR to IFR fog at LWB/BCB will lift 12-14z. VFR through the
majority of the period with some cu forming in the 4-6kft range
this afternoon. Any storms look to stay away from terminals.

More fog late tonight possible at LWB.

Confidence in the above aviation scenario is high.

OUTLOOK...

Anticipating mainly VFR through early next week outside any
late night/early morning fog and scattered thunderstorms.
Flight hazards from thunderstorms will primarily be limited to
the peak heating part of the day and early evening 18Z-01Z time.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PM/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...DS/WP