141
FXUS61 KRNK 052329
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
729 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A front will approach from the west on Friday and stall over
the region through the weekend. This will result in unsettled
weather into early next week with a daily chance of showers and
thunderstorms. A stronger front will arrive during the middle of
next week, followed by a drier airmass.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 700 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) Widely scattered showers/few storms in WV fade this evening.

2) Scattered shower and thunderstorm chances increase for areas
west of the Blue Ridge tomorrow.

Made some adjustments to account for radar trends which favors
the convection in WV to drift slowly west while the high level
clouds move southeast. Should see a weakening trend through this
evening. Cannot rule out a rogue shower over the Piedmont of NC
but most of this activity looks to stay southeast of our area.

Did make some upward adjustments to clouds Friday afternoon with
more storms expected, should see more clouds than forecast.

Previous discussion...

An approaching frontal boundary Friday afternoon will provide
forcing for scattered showers and thunderstorms for much of the
area west of the Blue Ridge, with isolated thunderstorms east of
the Blue Ridge. Instability looks to be around 1000 J/Kg of
SBCAPE, which combined with around 700-800 J/Kg of DCAPE will
provide a potential for strong to severe wind gusts with
stronger thunderstorms that develop. Deep layer shear in the
0-6km layer of around 30 knots will provide enough support for
multicellular storm clusters to develop as they push into the
area from the west during the afternoon and evening hours. With
freezing levels around 10000ft on Friday, the hail threat will
be minimal given the low instability levels. A few of the
stronger storms may produce pea to dime size hail, but the
forecast environment does not look to support larger hail at
this time.

Low clouds and patchy fog will likely be present for most across
the area Friday morning; however, this should quickly lift
through the mid morning hours as temperatures increase quickly
due to daytime heating. Some scattered clouds will likely
develop across the area through the afternoon before showers and
thunderstorms push in from the west. Temperatures overnight
should drop into the low 60s to upper 50s again across the area,
with highs climbing into the mid to upper 80s east of the Blue
Ridge, and upper 70s to low 80s west of the Blue Ridge.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1200 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Message:

1) Rounds of showers and thunderstorms through the weekend.

Active pattern expected through the fcst period as a series of upper
impulses look to traverse eastward across the mainly zonal flow
aloft. This combined with marginal deep layer shear near 30 kts and
diurnally enhanced CAPE near 1000 J/kg should allow for rounds of
scattered convection with possible more organized storm modes of
multicells or MCSs. Some strong to isolated severe storms will be
possible with damaging winds as the main threat. SPC does have most
of the area with a Marginal Risk on Saturday and a Slight Risk in
the SW CWA and wouldn`t be surprised if a portion of the area was
outlooked in future updates for Sunday. QPF looks manageable and
with mainly dry antecedent conditions the overall flooding threat
looks quite low to very isolated. Progged PWATs are pretty high
though near 1.75 inches so any training storms could bring the
isolated threat from hydrometeor loading.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1200 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Message:

1) Precipitation chances continue daily.

While in the wake of an upper wave from Sunday, another axis of
moisture and boundary looks to stall near the NW for Monday so have
the greater chance pops mainly along and west of the Blue Ridge.
Stronger dynamics look to be in play however for late Monday
overnight into Tuesday as a higher amplitude shortwave swings in
from the TN Valley and pushes the front SEWD. Will need to monitor
updates for any potential of stronger more organized storm potential
with this feature. For Wednesday some guidance is in pretty good
consensus with how far south the boundary and moisture extends
behind the disturbance. For now have chance pops for development
across the southern majority and slight pops north.

Temps generally a bit above climo with highs in the 70s for the
mountains and low to mid 80s for the Piedmont. Warmest day looks to
be Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 720 PM EDT Thursday...

Should be mainly VFR this evening though starting with some
broken MVFR cigs at DAN which should scatter out by 03z.

Overnight, fog and low clouds are possible, especially where it
rained this afternoon, namely LWB/BLF, but even DAN could sink
to IFR cigs/vsbys. Have kept vsby above 1sm for now at
LWB/BLF/LYH/DAN, VFR at ROA/BCB.

Any sub-VFR to lift to VFR by 13-14z. Showers/storms will be
concentrated more over WV Fri afternoon, so have VCTS at BLF/LWB
at the moment, as some models have activity being more
scattered. Overall winds stay under 5kts most of the period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Daily chance of showers and thunderstorms through Tuesday could
bring periods of sub-vfr, along with patchy valley fog each
morning.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...Air Quality Alert until 10 PM EDT this evening for WVZ042>044-
     507-508.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BMG/EB
NEAR TERM...EB/WP
SHORT TERM...AB
LONG TERM...AB
AVIATION...EB/WP