753
FXUS61 KRNK 081923
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
223 PM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds into the region tonight into Saturday,
allowing for cooler and drier weather conditions. A storm
system moving in from the southwest will bring shower chances
for Sunday into Monday. High pressure returns for Tuesday into
Wednesday, with another push of cooler air dropping temperatures
down for the last half of the week. Additional rainfall is
possible Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 200 PM EST Friday...

Key Message:

1) Much cooler tonight into Saturday.

A cold front had pushed south of the area this morning, but
denser high pressure to the NW was only making a slow
progression into our area so far, with no good SE push until
tonight. Stratocumulus resulting from residual moisture had
bubbled up over much of the southern Blue Ridge and was drifting
southeast. WNW winds were gusting up to 25 mph at times.
Temperatures had warmed into the 60s and 70s today with partly
to mostly sunny skies and the lack of CAA penetrating this far
south.

Mid level troughing over the northeast shifts SW into the
Atlantic tonight, allowing a ridge to expand across the eastern
half of the United States. In response, surface high pressure
over the Great Lakes will build south with time, with the center
shifting east to Lake Erie by Saturday night. Tonight into
Saturday morning, winds will be northwesterly before a more
easterly flow develops Saturday as the high shifts east.

The high pressure`s influence will result in light winds
and mostly clear skies overnight, except for passing cirrus
clouds. PW values drop to a third or less across the region
overnight, and taking these factors into account as well as the
arrival of weak cold air advection, we should see much cooler
lows tonight, especially for the mountains. Look for mid to
upper 30s for the mountains, with a few of our colder valleys
dipping into the low 30s. Areas east of the Blue Ridge will see
temperatures in the 40s. Large dew point depressions should help
prevent fog.

Saturday will be cool under the wedge of high pressure, with
highs in the upper 50s to low 60s areawide. We will get some
upper level moisture with bands of cirrus arriving, but surface
dew points remain low and will yield afternoon RH values in the
30 to 40 percent range.

Confidence in the near term forecast is high.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 145 PM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

1: Rain in the forecast this weekend

A ridge begins to break down in advance of a front making its way
east overnight Saturday into Sunday. As the front enters our
forecast area, it becomes more zonally oriented throughout the day
Sunday while the system becomes occluded well to our north.
Atmospheric moisture will be near the high end of climatology (>1"
PWAT), though instability will be almost nil. As a result, expecting
rain showers without any thunder on Sunday and into Monday. Rain
will taper off from north to south on Monday.

It only took into the second week of November for temperatures to
settle down close to normal and get out of the 70s. Expect highs in
the low 60s and upper 50s this weekend and Monday. With all the
moisture however, not looking for temperatures to drop significantly
in the overnight hours, so lows will stay in the 40s with few
exceptions.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 215 PM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

1: Dry weather back in the lineup most of the weak

2: Late week front with uncertain timing

Surface high pressure will take hold over most of the Mid-Atlantic
again by Tuesday. This will take us back to the familiar dry weather
of late, but it doesn`t seem that it will be as prolonged as before.
There is agreement amongst most deterministic models that there will
b a late week front, but it is quite progressive and fast moving in
many solutions, and timing is hard to pin down. For now highlighting
Thursday with greatest PoPs. Little change to temps next week,
mostly around normal, lows in the 30s/40s, highs in the 50s/60s.
Unlikely to see any freezing temperatures next week.


&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 205 PM EST Friday...

All terminals will continue to have VFR flight conditions
through this evening as skies continue to clear out, with only
scattered clouds overhead at times. Winds will remain elevated
out of the northwest around 5-10 knots gusting to near 20 knots
at times due to the flow behind the front that passed through
earlier. Winds reduce between 20z and 00z tonight to under 5
knots for BLF, LYH, BCB and LWB, but continue to remain elevated
through 06z for ROA and DAN. VFR conditions are expected to
continue through the overnight and for tomorrow as well. Winds
will range from northeast to southeast for all sites by tomorrow
morning but will remain light, except for LYH and DAN, with
winds near 10 knots gusting to over 15 knots after 12z.

Overall confidence is high.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK

Rain chances return for Sunday afternoon, likely reducing flight
conditions to MVFR or below as a front pushes through the area.
The front clears out by midday Monday, with VFR conditions
returning for the rest of the period.

&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 215 PM EST Friday...

Lynchburg, Roanoke, and Danville could or have already tied or
broken records today.


Record Highs For Today 11/08:
SITE              Record/Year         So Far
Roanoke               79/1975            78
Lynchburg             78/2020            79
Danville              79/1934            79

&&

 .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SH
NEAR TERM...SH
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...VFJ
AVIATION...JCB
CLIMATE...SH