858
FXUS61 KRNK 220255
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
955 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A prolonged period of very gusty northwest winds are expected
through Saturday, accompanied by accumulating snow showers across
the mountains, especially the area between southeast West Virginia
and northwest North Carolina. Less windy, drier and milder weather
is expected by Sunday into Monday. Our next potential weather system
arrives for the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 945 PM EST Thursday...

PoPs were adjusted upward slightly this evening to account for
snow flurries that have progressed further east into the New
River valley. These flurries have remained light, and will
likely not total to much more than a trace overnight. Outside of
adjusting the PoPs, no other changes were made to the forecast
this evening.


Previous Discussion:

Key Points:

1. Winter Warnings/Advisories remain in place through Saturday for
portions of the area.
2. Wind Advisory in effect from noon Friday through 6am Saturday.

A slow moving area of low pressure will be situated north of the
area through Saturday. Counter-clockwise flow around this low will
place our region within a prolonged period of northwest flow.
Upstream of our region, flow around this low is tapping moisture off
the Great Lakes. This pattern is conducive for the production of
rain/snow showers across western parts of the region where the
moisture is carried up the slopes of the higher terrain.
Additionally within this northwest flow will be distinct weaker
troughs of low pressure. Each has the potential to enhance the
precipitation amounts as it passes, and also allow for an increase in
wind speed behind it. One such feature is crossing the area
currently. Another will cross on Friday.  Behind the one on Friday,
winds are expected to gust even stronger such that a Wind Advisory
has been issued for the mountains from noon on Friday through 600 AM
EST on Saturday. The 40kt Wind Advisory wind gusts threshold is only
expected to be reached at the highest elevations within the advisory
area. However, with the potential for there still to be weakened
trees and limbs as a result of the passage of the remnants of
Hurricane Helene, these trees and limbs will be more susceptible to
being brought down by these winds. Therefore, the advisory has been
issued for all areas along and west of the crest of the Blue Ridge.

The effects of gusty winds and temperatures trending downward will
also yield some of the coldest wind chills for far this season.
Values late tonight into early Friday morning will be in the teens
across the mountains and low to mid 20s across the Piedmont region.

Confidence in the above weather scenario is moderate to high.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Points:

1) Rain/snow showers continue through Saturday afternoon before
tapering off.

2) Strong winds persist through late Saturday/early Sunday morning.

3) Temperatures remain below average Saturday but rebound to
slightly above normal on Sunday.

Snow showers will continue in the higher elevations Friday night as
the low pressure system over the northern Mid-Atlantic continues to
drive upslope flow across the western areas of the RNK CWA. A
shortwave will move over the area, increasing winds and bringing
additional forcing for another round of snow. Additional snowfall of
up to an inch will be possible Friday night in the mountains, with 2-
3" for western Greenbrier County. Outside of the higher elevations,
a rain/snow mix will be possible anywhere west of the Blue Ridge,
but no snow accumulation is expected as temperatures will remain in
the mid 30s as 500mb heights begin to rise behind the shortwave.
Winds will remain strong, gusting to 45+ mph in the highest
elevations, and over 35 mph west of the Blue Ridge. On Saturday, the
low moves off to the east, which will lower the moisture levels and
reduce the northwest flow by Saturday night. Wind gusts reduce to
under 20 mph, which will also end any upslope precipitation.
Overnight into Sunday, high pressure builds back into the region,
keeping quiet weather through the rest of the period.

The storm total snowfall forecast has slightly increased for the
NC/VA mountains, with totals of 1-4", with the highest elevations
possibly seeing over 6.0". A winter Weather Advisory remains in
effect through Saturday morning. West Virginia will have a sharp
gradient with snow totals, with the eastern Greenbrier and Monroe
counties seeing around 1.0", increasing to 2-4" for Summers and
Mercer counties. Western Greenbrier will see the highest totals,
with widespread 6-10", and some areas in the northwest part of the
county possibly seeing over a foot. A Winter Storm Warning Will
remain in effect there through Saturday evening.

Friday night, lows will be in the 30s, and with strong winds gusting
35-45+ mph, wind chills will again be in the teens and 20s west of
the Blue Ridge. High temperatures will remain below average on
Saturday, with highs in the 40s and 50s. A more southerly flow
returns on Sunday, increasing highs into the 50s and 60s. Low
temperatures remain consistent, mainly in the 30s for Saturday and
Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Points:

1) Rain chances return Monday night into Tuesday ahead of the next
cold front.

2) Above average temperatures early in the week return to around
normal midweek.

3) A better chance of rain arrives Thursday with yet another cold
front moving into the region.

High pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern for most
of Monday ahead of the next system that will approach the area late
Monday into Tuesday. Models disagree on the timing of the front,
ranging from Monday night to Tuesday morning. Regardless of timing,
showers are expected on the western upslope areas, with the piedmont
likely remaining dry as the front dies out before reaching there.
High pressure moves back in by Tuesday afternoon, keeping dry
conditions in place until Thursday when another system moves into
the area, bringing widespread showers back into the forecast.

Temperatures remain above average through Tuesday due to
southwesterly flow advecting warm air into the CWA. HIghs will be in
the 60s to near 70 on Monday lowering to the 50s and 60s on Tuesday
as the front moves through. Highs midweek  will mostly be in the
50s, with 40s for the higher elevations. Lows Monday night will
mainly be in the 40s before dropping into the low 30s by Wednesday
morning with 20s in the highest elevations, with lows mainly in the
30s for Thursday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 615 PM EST Thursday...

VFR conditions are expected at all TAF sites except LWB, BLF,
and BCB this evening. Off and on snow flurries are bringing
brief periods of MVFR VSBYs to the aforementioned three
terminals. These off and on restrictions look to continue
through the 06-08 UTC timeframe before snow flurries are
expected to end for the evening. During this lull of flurries,
westerly winds will still remain gusty; however, they are
expected to pick up at all terminals again Friday afternoon into
the 25-30 knot range. Snow flurries will once again move into
LWB and BLF after 18 UTC on Friday, and continue through the end
of the TAF period. All other terminals while remaining cloudy
will maintain VFR conditions through the TAF period.

Confidence is moderate to high in the above scenario.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK

Gusty northwest winds continue through the end of the week.
Prolonged period of upslope snow and sub-VFR cigs possible over
the mountains. Aviation conditions improve Sunday into Monday.
Our next weather system, and chance of some sub-VFR conditions
across the mountains, arrives on Tuesday.

Confidence in the above extended aviation scenario is high.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
As of 300 PM EST Thursday...

WSR-88D KFCX National Weather Service Blacksburg Radar Down for
Maintenance Through Friday November 22, 2024.

KFCX, the Doppler Radar associated with the Blacksburg VA National
Weather Service Forecast Office will continue to be down for
maintenance and repairs now through Friday, November 22nd. We
apologize for any inconvenience that this may cause.

In the meantime, you can use the surrounding radars for which
coverage overlaps various portions of the KFCX radar coverage
area. These include KRLX (Charleston, WV), KLWX (Sterling, VA),
KAKQ (Wakefield VA), KRAH (Raleigh, NC), KGSP (Greenville-
Spartanburg SC), and KMRX (Morristown TN). These can be found
individually on these offices` web page or through our web page
and using the pan feature of the radar display tools to navigate
to the desired neighboring radar.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for VAZ015.
     Wind Advisory from noon Friday to 6 AM EST Saturday for VAZ007-
     009>020-022>024.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Saturday for VAZ007-009.
NC...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for NCZ001-018.
     Wind Advisory from noon Friday to 6 AM EST Saturday for NCZ001-
     002-018.
WV...Wind Advisory from noon Friday to 6 AM EST Saturday for
     WVZ042>044-507-508.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Saturday for WVZ042>044-
     507.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Saturday for WVZ508.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS/EB
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...DS/EB
EQUIPMENT...