583
FXUS61 KRNK 031417
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1017 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure was centered over the Great Lakes with a cold front
extending from the western Ohio Valley to northern Texas. A warm
front extended east from the low across the Mid-Atlantic. The
warm front is expected to move north today, temperatures
trending warmer as southerly winds increase across the area. The
cold front to our west is expected to stall, but will become a
breeding ground for thunderstorms that will organize and move
east as an outflow boundary, increasing the threat for scattered
showers and a few storms for our area through the upcoming
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1000 AM EDT Thursday...

Temperature trends and PoPs were adjusted this morning to keep
up with current trends across the area. Subsequent updates may
be needed given the wedge eroding across the area, which may
create stark temperature gradients over portions of the area
this afternoon. This may also lead to changes in thunderstorm
coverage across the area today. Overall, it appears that
thunderstorms will primarily remain west of the I-81 this
afternoon and evening.

Previous Discussion:

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for cloudy and damp conditions this
morning with patchy fog along the Blue Ridge.

2) Conditions should turn much warmer with a chance of showers
and thunderstorms this afternoon.

There is a hodge podge of weather ongoing this morning. A cool
wedge of marine air from easterly flow remains banked up against
the Blue Ridge...a prescription for stratus, drizzle and cool
temperatures. Meanwhile, a line of showers and thunderstorms
was approaching from the Ohio Valley, an opportunity for some
wetting rain across our WV/VA bordering counties.

Mesoscale models weaken the approaching line of storms this
morning, but still expect a period of shower/storm activity to
impact the I-64 corridor and potentially as far south as 460
between 8AM-Noon. The stable cool wedge on the east side of the
mountains should help with its demise. Meanwhile, the cool
wedge, will be producing its own precipitation, albeit light,
and in the form of drizzle and fog near the Blue Ridge. This
wedge of cool air is expected to dissipate today courtesy of a
warm front that will move north, introducing much warmer
temperatures. ROA/LYH/DAN may test 80 degrees.

For the afternoon, expecting a clash of airmass, warm
southerly winds pooling moisture along what will be a remnant
MCS outflow and warm front combo, yielding potential for
thunderstorm redevelopment. Favored area appears to the the I-64
corridor, but could see activity as far south as 460...all
depending on where the outflow from the morning activity plays
out. As such, SPC has maintained a slight risk for severe storms
across our northern CWA with a marginal risk as far south as
Highway 460. Convective allowing models suggest MUCAPE as high
as 2000 j/kg along the boundary this afternoon and evening. Main
threat is thunderstorm wind gusts, but shear profiles do support
rotating cell mode along the boundary as well, so can`t rule out
some supercells with isolated tornado and hail threat.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 400 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) Near record highs possible Friday and Saturday.

2) The main cold front moves through Sunday, with widespread showers
and storms.

Strong ridging from the surface high in the Western Atlantic will
continue to keep the frontal boundary stalled off to the northwest
of our area in the Ohio River Valley. With southerly winds across
the area, temperatures and dew points will rise across the RNK CWA.
This will allow some isolated showers and even a few thunderstorms
to be possible Friday, mainly north of the NC/VA state line. PoPs
remain low, around 20-30%, increasing to near 50% in our
northwestern most WV counties Friday afternoon. Rainfall amounts
remain light, around 0.10-0.20", mainly west of the Blue Ridge.
Western Greenbrier County in WV could see higher amounts as they are
closer to the frontal boundary. Winds will be elevated, with gusts
of 15-25 mph possible area-wide, due to the pressure gradient over
the area. Saturday looks to be mostly quiet, and has trended drier,
as mid-level dry air will limit convection, save for the counties in
WV, though PoPs decrease to around 20% at most there by Saturday
night.

By Sunday, the cold front finally begins to move into the area as
the high in the Atlantic breaks down and shifts east. There is some
disagreement between models as to when exactly the front arrives,
but rain is expected to reach our western counties sometime Sunday
morning. Showers and storms will be possible through the entire day.
Severe weather is not out of the question as shear will be present,
but is currently not anticipated due to low CAPE values. It will be
worth monitoring to see if these conditions change.

Temperatures will be well above average through the period, with
near record highs possible Friday and Saturday with highs in the 80s
across the entire area. Piedmont locations may make a run at 90
degrees for the first time this year. Lows will be in the 60s each
morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 400 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) Much cooler temperatures return for next week.

2) Mountain snow showers are possible Monday night.

The front moves through Sunday night, as a surface low forms over
our area, which will likely keep rainfall lingering into Monday,
with a dreary day expected until things clear out late in the day.
An upper-level shortwave trough will then swing down through the
Ohio Valley Monday night, with a secondary cold front moving
through. This will possibly bring snow showers for the western
mountains. Models disagree on the strength of this shortwave, with
the GFS having snow showers as far south as the NC mountains, though
any precipitation will likely remain further north. High pressure
builds in behind the front, with quiet weather through the rest of
the period.

Temperatures will be much cooler and below average next week, with
50s/60s expected for highs on Monday, 40s/50s on Tuesday, then back
to the 50s/60s by midweek. Lows will be in the 40s/50s Monday
morning, before also taking a nose dive Tuesday morning with 20s/30s
area-wide through the rest of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 500 AM EDT Thursday...

Poor flying conditions are expected today due to cool and moist
air being wedged against the Blue Ridge. Ceilings favoring IFR
to MVFR are expected to prevail through about 18Z before lifting
into VFR category later in the day.

There is a line of thunderstorms crossing the Ohio Valley. This
activity is expected to weaken as it crosses the mountains this
morning, but will likely provide for showers and embedded
thunderstorms across the Virginias today. Confidence is too low
to add thunder to the TAFs attm...but the best chance will be
across WV and may need to add to the 12Z TAF issuance for BLF
and LWB.

Winds are expected to be gusty today, from the south. Low-
level wind shear will be prevalent this morning until surface
mixing takes place. The shallow stable layer near the surface is
impacting ROA/LYH/LWB/MTV suggesting a northeast surface wind.
Winds just above this stable layer are humming along at 30-40
kts from the south. Please keep this in mind for the morning
push. Once you ascend above this stable layer the aircraft will
go shaky shaky.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

A frontal boundary should stall across the Ohio River Valley
during Thursday night into Friday. This frontal boundary will
keep chances of showers and thunderstorms present into the
upcoming weekend. Otherwise, conditions should stay mostly VFR
outside of any afternoon convection or any increase in moisture
at night that could produce a layer of low clouds. A cold front
may arrive by late Sunday into Sunday night to provide sub-VFR
conditions and a more widespread chance of showers and
thunderstorms. MVFR ceilings might linger into Monday across the
mountains, while a gusty northwest wind returns.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...EB/PM
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...PM