542
FXUS61 KRNK 081107
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
607 AM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A front moves south into the Carolinas today. High pressure
builds in from the north with dry weather into Saturday. A storm
system moving in from the southwest will bring shower chances
for Sunday into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 155 AM EST Friday...

Key Message:

1) Not as Warm Today, But Still Above Normal Temperatures.

Overall, models are in agreement in taking the front over southern
VA this morning into southern NC by this evening. This morning, fog
appears to be a bit patchy and more centered over our NC foothills
and northwest Piedmont south toward CLT. Low clouds/fog and patchy
drizzle also possible at times back across the western slopes of
WV/far SW Va this morning. Anticipate clouds to scatter out as we
head toward lunchtime today with sunshine this afternoon. A flow out
of the northwest will bring a drier airmass in by later in the
afternoon with winds gusting to 20 mph at times. Still airmass is
not that cool, so highs again over the Piedmont with downsloping may
reach close to 80 again. At the moment, Danville and Lynchburg could
approach record highs. Further west temperatures will be cooler
but still 10-15 degrees above normal in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

Tonight, high pressure situated over the Great Lakes builds south
into VA, with low level flow weakening. Cooler air works in with
lows in the mid 30s to around 40 in the mountains, with mid 40s in
the Piedmont. With clear skies and a lighter wind, could have some
fog along rivers/lakes, but given dry ground, fog looks more limited.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 300 AM EST Friday...

Key Message:

1. Temps cooling for the weekend and next front approaches with
increased rain chances for Sunday into early Monday.

The weekend kicks off with a dry ridge dominated Saturday with
cooler temps back down to near climo norms with many locations
reaching highs only in the low 60s. Conditions will change greatly
for Sunday as a broad enhanced moisture field advects into the
area from the west ahead of an approaching front that is progged
to get elongated across the eastern CONUS as an upper closed
low tracks off to the Great Lakes and SE Canada. With nearly
zero instability widespread rain showers are expected with no
thunder mention. PWATs of 1.25-1.4 inches look to be near record
or 99th percentile of climo so despite the lack of CAPE some
showers could be very efficient rain producers. Storm total QPF
has had little change from before with about a half an inch of
rain expected in the mountains and near a quarter inch for the
Piedmont.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 330 AM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Dry for much of the week, then possible cold front Thursday.

A weak shortwave on the heels of the aforementioned frontal
system looks to flirt with the northern part of the area for
early Tuesday though it is moisture starved and expecting a
dry airmass with another ridge of high pressure to quickly build in.
This doesn`t last long though, as another rather high amplitude
upper trough looks to sling a cold front along its southern extent
into the area for late Wednesday into Thursday. Will have to monitor
this with other updates as there could be some stronger dynamics and
forcing associated with this system and there are some differences
in strength and timing in the guidance members. Beyond this feature,
we do look to cool down to have some morning lows in the 30s to low
40s for much of the area by the end of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 605 AM EST Friday...

A weak front tracking slowly south across southern VA this
morning will keep BKN V SCT VFR conditions for the Piedmont to
Roanoke with potential MVFR at ROA. Further west low clouds and
any fog improve to VFR between 14-17z, with VFR expected
thereafter as high pressure builds in. Northwest winds may be
gusty to 20 kts at times during the daylight hours.

Overall confidence is moderate.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

VFR conditions for Saturday.

Much deeper moisture arriving from the Gulf of Mexico and the
Atlantic arrive ahead of a low pressure over the Mississippi
Valley bringing widespread rain and sub-VFR flight conditions
Sunday into early Monday.


This system will be off the East Coast Monday. Ceilings and
visibility will be improving back to VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 140 AM EST Friday...

Lynchburg and Danville could get to record highs again Friday.


Record Highs For Today 11/08:
SITE              Record/Year         Forecast
Roanoke               79/1975            76
Lynchburg             78/2020            77
Danville              79/1934            78
Blacksburg            78/1975            71
Bluefield             83/1924            63

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...AB
LONG TERM...AB
AVIATION...AMS/SH/WP
CLIMATE...WP