715
FXUS61 KRNK 040616
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
216 AM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to provide warm and dry weather
through this evening. Rain chances increase by Thursday morning
and unsettled weather will likely continue into early next week
with a daily chance of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 200 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Dry and warm weather will continue through this evening.

2) Increasing chance of rain showers late tonight and into
early Thursday.

Upper ridging continues to hold over the eastern United States
with surface high pressure remaining over the Atlantic.
Southwest flow around the high, along with increased heights due
to the ridge will result in another day of warm and dry
conditions. Highs generally in the upper 70s to mid 80s across
the area.

A weak disturbance moving north out of the Gulf this morning
will track into the Carolinas late tonight. Clouds will increase
this evening ahead of the system and light rain could begin to
reach portions of North Carolina and southern Virginia late
tonight and into very early Thursday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1230 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Point:

1) Heat, humidity and rain chances increase each day.


An area of high pressure will drift off the VA/NC coast Wednesday
night into Thursday. Winds will become southerly, helping to
increase temperatures and humidity over the area. High temperatures
Thursday will range from the mid 70s to mid 80s. Also on Thursday, a
cold front will remain stalled over the Ohio Valley with a Gulf
disturbance tracking over the Carolinas. Most models keep the Gulf
disturbance along the southeast coast Thursday, then off shore
overnight. There are a few models that have the track of this
disturbance further west. If this is the case, showers and
thunderstorms are possible for the area. We believe the influence of
the upper level ridge will still be present over the region,
therefore will lean towards a dry warm forecast for Thursday.

The cold front over the Ohio Valley will slowly approach the area on
Friday. With heights beginning to fall, scattered showers and
thunderstorms chances will increase during peak heating, especially
across the mountains. Friday should be the warmest day of the week
with temperatures ranging from the upper 70s to upper 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1245 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Point:

1) Storms likely Saturday and Monday

A slow moving cold front over the Ohio Valley will wait on a wave to
pass before moving into the region Saturday. Strong to severe storms
are likely along and east of the Blue Ridge in the afternoon and
evening. High pressure will follow the front Sunday. An upper level
low over the Great Lakes will push a wave of low pressure from the
southern Plains to the Carolina Sunday into Monday. If this wave
phases with a cold front moving across the Ohio Valley, then storms
are likely Sunday night into Monday. If they do not phase, the wave
will move off the Carolina coast Sunday night, then a brief period
of showers will accompany the cold front passing over the area
Monday.

Near normal temperatures are expected through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 215 AM EDT Wednesday...

Widespread VFR is expected for all terminals over the next 24
hours. Exception being some potential IFR or lower vsby at LWB
in the 09-12z time frame. Winds light out of the less, less than
10 kts.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Sub-vfr could return as early as Thursday morning with showers
moving back into the region. Daily chance of rain and
thunderstorms through the weekend could bring periods of sub-
vfr, along with patchy valley fog each morning.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...BMG