


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
375 FXUS61 KRNK 041031 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 631 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build across the region with dry weather expected for the upcoming Holiday weekend. Little or no additional rain is forecast until next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 100 AM EDT Friday... Key Messages: 1) A quiet/seasonably warm Independence Day Looking at high pressure surface and aloft to keep us dry with temperatures running slightly above normal. Not too bad for Independence Day, so should be a decent enough day to get out and enjoy any festivities/fireworks/grilling, etc. During the day, stay hydrated and take breaks as the heat can still impact you. High temps will run from near 90 in the Piedmont and Roanoke/Shenandoah Valley to lower to mid 80s elsewhere. Just a few cu or passing high thin cirrus in an otherwise sunny sky. Tonight, lows will be in the lower to mid 60s under mainly clear skies. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 120 AM EDT Friday... Key Points: 1. Temperatures slightly above average. 2. Dry Saturday, but increasing chances of showers/storms Sunday into Monday. A look at the 3 Jul 00Z NCEP Ensemble Mean 500mb Geopotential Heights shows for Saturday/Saturday night a broad region of upper level high pressure across much of central and eastern CONUS. The area of southern Canada will be the most active with the northern jet located there along with embedded shortwave troughs within the flow. For Sunday/Sunday night, the w-e oriented upper jet over southern Canada head south into the US, with an associated shortwave trough progressing through the Great Lakes region. Elsewhere for central and eastern CONUS, the high pressure ridge holds fast. For Monday/Monday night, little change is expected in the overall pattern as compared to Sunday. At the surface, a ridge of high pressure will be situated over our region Saturday/Saturday night. A cold front will extend from Quebec southwest into the Upper Mississippi River Valley. A low pressure weakness is noted over FL. For Sunday/Sunday night, a weak nose of high pressure will remain over VA/NC. The front to our northwest heads southeast into the Ohio Valley. The weakness over FL shifts north a bit to over the area of AL/GA/SC. For Monday/Monday night, the cold front to the north head south to over our region and stalls. A look at the 3 Jul 12Z NAEFS Ensemble Situational Awareness data shows 850mb temperatures will range from +17C to +19C, e-w, over the region on Saturday. Little change is expected for Sunday and Monday. The above weather patterns offers the following forecast. High pressure will help maintain a dry forecast for the region on Saturday. However, for Sunday, the weakness over the SE US may drift far enough north to provide some isolated to scattered showers and storms for southern and eastern parts of the area. This features may do more of the same on Monday, but it will be complimented by the cold front to our northeast getting closer to the region. This opens the door to isolated to scattered coverage for the region on Monday. Temperatures will average three to five degrees above normal for this time of year. Confidence in the above weather scenario is high on temperatures, but only moderate on precipitation chances thanks to the uncertainties the feature over the SE US may bring. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 120 AM EDT Friday... Key Points: 1. Daily chances of showers/storms. 2. Increasing chances of locally heavy rain/flooding. 3. Above normal temperatures. A look a the 3 Jul 00Z NCEP Ensemble Mean 500mb Geopotential Heights shows for Tuesday/Tuesday night a small southern dip in both the position of the ridge axis over eastern CONUS and the northern stream jet near the US/Canadian border. For Wednesday/Wednesday night, a trough starts to take better shape from Hudson Bay south into the Ohio River Valley. A ridge builds over western CONUS. For Thursday, the axis of the trough becomes more amplified with its base extending south into the Tennessee Valley, with a clear southwest flow over our region. A broad and strong ridge remains over southwest CONUS. At the surface, for Tuesday through Thursday, a cold front remains over or near our region. A look at the 3 Jul 12Z NAEFS Ensemble Situational Awareness data shows 850mb temperatures are expected to range from +18C to +20C, ne- sw, across the region for Tuesday. Little change is expected on Wednesday. For Thursday, the values may slide slightly to +17C to +19C. With a frontal boundary stopping over or near our region during this portion of the forecast, we are expecting daily chances of showers/storms. Depending upon just where this front stalls, and how much precipitation falls on a daily basis, we may experience an increasing risk of flooding Wednesday into Thursday. Temperatures are expected to average five to eight degrees above normal through Wednesday. Slightly cooler readings are possible Thursday. Heat Index values across southeastern portions of the area may touch the 100F mark Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon. Confidence in the above weather scenario is moderate to high. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 630 AM EDT Friday... Should see LIFR fog at LWB again early this morning lifting by 14z. Otherwise expect VFR. Fog again possible late tonight at LWB but limited to 3sm for now, as we continue to dry out. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... VFR conditions are expected outside of morning valley fog through early next week. May see some isolated to scattered storms Sunday into Monday with chances increasing into Tuesday. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BMG/WP NEAR TERM...WP SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM...DS AVIATION...BMG/SH/WP