598
FXUS61 KRNK 060022
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
722 PM EST Wed Feb 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
The next system moves in tonight with rain showers area-wide.
Areas north of I-64 will see some freezing rain accumulation
through tomorrow morning. A very active weather pattern
continues with multiple opportunities for rain, freezing rain,
and snow for the Mid- Atlantic into next week. There is
currently high uncertainty for next week`s potential storm
systems.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 720 PM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Ice Storm and Winter Weather Advisories for most Northern
Counties.

2) Widespread rain expected late tonight and Thursday

Temperatures continue to remain above freezing across most of
the area, aside from the far northern counties. Isolated rain
showers will continue for the rest of the evening before
precipitation begins to become more widespread around midnight.
Areas north of I-64 will likely see freezing rain for several
hours overnight, which could accumulate to over a tenth of an
inch of ice in spots. A cold rain will persist elsewhere
tonight and for tomorrow. The previous forecast remains on
track.

Previous Discussion...

A surface high pressure system to our northeast will continue
heading into the Atlantic and reduce wedging against the
mountains. A surface low traveling to the Great Lakes will
provide a warm front and stratiform precipitation for the region
later tonight. Most of the region will receive rain as a
result, but the cold air damming and warm air aloft will provide
appropriate conditions for freezing rain for the more northern
and mountainous counties. Ice Storm Warnings and Winter
Advisories have been issued due to this threat. Accumulations
will vary by locations, with the highest in Greenbrier County
with up to around 0.3 inches.

As the warm front moves through, temperatures will increase and
transition all precipitation to rain for the entire region. Air is
still pretty stable but a little CAPE to the west could result in
some isolated thunderstorms Thursday afternoon. While no severe
weather is currently expected, flooding is a concern as areas west
of the Blue Ridge may see between half an inch to an inch of rain.
Prior to the cold front`s arrival, temperatures region wide will
reach to the 50s.

Last note of interest is a low level jet will casually run through
with the storm system offering a brief period of gusty winds of 15-
25 kts.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for drier weather on Friday, but unsettled
weather returns by the upcoming weekend.

2) Most of the precipitation this weekend stays as rain, but wintry
precipitation is possible along the Interstate 64 corridor.

Lingering rain showers from Thursday evening should diminish on
Thursday night as a low pressure system exits offshore. High
pressure should bring drier air towards the Appalachian Mountains by
Friday. Temperatures could reach up to ten degrees above normal
during Friday afternoon. However, high pressure should head off the
East Coast on Friday night as clouds increase to foreshadow the
unsettled weather looming ahead for this weekend.

The synoptic pattern across the continental United States will
feature a zonal flow aloft throughout this forecast period. With
this pattern, any low pressure systems should quickly traverse
eastward. One of these will cross the Plains on Saturday with the
warm front extending towards the Mid Atlantic. Rain should increase
in coverage during late Friday night into Saturday morning, but
temperatures near or below freezing across the Interstate 64
corridor will promote a wintry mix of freezing rain and sleet. As
temperatures increase above freezing, the wintry mix should change
to rain. Moisture will gradually decrease east of the Blue Ridge by
Saturday night, while upslope showers persist to the west as a cold
front approaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 200 PM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is moderate for a continuation of unsettled weather
into next week.

2) Wintry precipitation is possible for Monday through Wednesday,
but considerable uncertainty remains.

A cold front will cross the Mid Atlantic on Sunday. Gusty northwest
winds should follow in the wake of this frontal passage. Some
upslope rain showers are possible on Sunday morning in the
mountains, and there may be a few snow flurries in western
Greenbrier County before the moisture diminishes by Sunday
afternoon. Zonal flow aloft will remain in place across the eastern
United States into early next week, but an upper level trough should
develop along the Rocky Mountains to spark the formation of a low
pressure system across the southern Plains. Moisture will increase
again by Monday to continue an unsettled weather pattern for the
next few days.

Details become murky for Monday through Wednesday as the models
struggle with the track of the aforementioned low pressure system.
Complicating the picture further will be temperatures falling
towards freezing at night and rising above freezing during the day.
Wintry precipitation appears possible for all three days, but there
remains a considerable amount of uncertainty. The overall consensus
for Monday is a morning wintry mix along and north of Route 460 that
transitions to an afternoon rain, while most locations south of
Route 460 should stay liquid. The frozen precipitation types could
advance further southward on Monday night, retreat northward by
Tuesday, dive southward again on Tuesday night, and move northward
once more by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 720 PM EST Wednesday...

Predominantly MVFR conditions are across all terminals
this evening, though cigs are bouncing between VFR/MVFR at
several sites. By midnight, cigs will drop to MVFR at all
sites, as rain begins to move in from the west. The rainfall
will increase in coverage and intensity by early morning,
dropping ceilings for all terminals to IFR flight restrictions
around 09-12z. LWB is expected to have a brief period of
freezing rain from 06-09z. Wind shear of 35-45 knots will also
move in to BLF/LWB/BCB/ROA, beginning around 03z for BLF, and
around 12z elsewhere. The wind shear lasts through around 20z
tomorrow. Cigs continue to lower tomorrow morning, with all
terminals likely seeing LIFR conditions for much of the day.
Ceilings slowly rise tomorrow evening, with all terminals
returning to IFR conditions as the rain tapers off.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Friday is looking to be mostly dry, which should return
terminals to VFR conditions at least briefly. However, several
storm systems are expected to make their way across the Mid-
Atlantic starting this weekend. Each system will bring the risk
of low clouds, low visibilities, and mixed precipitation to all
terminals with sub- VFR conditions likely.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for VAZ019-020-
     024.
NC...None.
WV...Ice Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Thursday for WVZ507-508.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CG/JCB
NEAR TERM...CG/JCB
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...CG/JCB