Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
546 FXUS61 KRNK 272344 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 744 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Storms this evening and again Friday may pose a severe wind threat, along with very heavy rainfall. Aviaton updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Potential strong storms Friday. Damaging winds and localized flooding possible. 2) Heat builds into next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Potential strong storms Friday. Damaging winds and localized flooding possible. Storms have already begun to develop west of the Blue Ridge and coverage of storms will likely increase through this evening in response to a subtle wave and a slow-moving frontal boundary within the region. Moderate surface heating and increasing dew points into the upper 60s has resulted in MLCAPE/SBCAPE now approaching 1500 J/kg. Further destabilization throughout the remainder of the afternoon will allow storms to increase in coverage across the mountains. PWAT values are not particularly high (around 1.50" or less) but nearly stationary storms will still pose a localized flooding threat through this evening. Shear remains weak, so organized convection remains a lower risk, but multicell clusters and cell mergers later this afternoon/evening may introduce a damaging wind threat for a few hours. Friday, the front slows and stalls somewhere across the VA/NC Piedmont/Foothills, as several vorts track from the TN Valley to the east coast. Looks like better severe threat appears to stay east of the mountains, with more instability but will depend on cloud coverage early in the day. If sunshine is plentiful expect moderate to potentially strong instability east/southeast of the front where upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints will be present. Lapse rates will be quite weak, but most guidance shows temperatures warming into the low to mid 80s which should provide pockets of moderate to strong instability. Any storms that can take advantage of the a stronger flow aloft may be longer- lived and capable of some damaging wind gusts. KEY MESSAGE 2: Heat builds into next week. A strong upper ridge begins to build by early next week. Above normal temperatures appear likely as the ridge remains in place through at least the middle of next week. As such with strong ridging, rain/storm chances will become limited. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... DAN/BCB may continue to see -SHRA with an occasional strike of lightning. BLF and LWB may see a shower, but not enough confidence to include in the TAFs. Any storms could bring lower vsbys and cigs and gusty winds. Tonight, models showing more potential for fog but still depends on lingering cloud cover and if it rains at/near the terminal. Could have IFR or worse vsbys at LWB/BCB, then maybe MVFR at BLF/LYH/DAN. However, confidence in this remains rather low as of this update. A cold front moves through the area overnight and into early tomorrow morning before stalling somewhere in east VA. PoPs have increased for ROA, LYH, and DAN tomorrow afternoon and evening where convergence will be highest along that part of the front. Have included -TSRA for these terminals. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... The weekend into early next week appears drier with warmer temperatures. VFR expected outside any late night fog. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BMG/SH/WP AVIATION...BMG/SH/WP