282
FXUS61 KRNK 221949
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
249 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Gusty northwest winds and mountain snow showers will continue
through tonight and into Saturday morning. The wind and snow
showers should eventually fade by Saturday night with drier and
milder conditions expected for Sunday and Monday. The next
chance of rain may arrive on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1245 PM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for mountain snow showers through
Saturday morning before fading by Saturday afternoon.

2) Gusty northwest winds will persist through Saturday.

No changes to the headlines have been made. Another lobe of
vorticity will pass aloft in association with a deep upper level
low this afternoon. There will be a notable increase of wind in
the wake of this feature as the 850 mb jet strengthens to near
60 kt, which will result in surface winds gusting up to 50 mph
along the higher elevations. These winds should linger into
Saturday morning but slowly fade by Saturday afternoon as the
jet weakens.

In addition, the lobe of vorticity will reinforce mountain snow
showers from Boone to Lewisburg. The highest accumulations will
occur in western Greenbrier County. Snow showers and flurries
may extend further east towards the Interstate 81 corridor in
southwest Virginia early tonight but with considerably lower
accumulations. Similar to the winds, the mountain snow showers
should gradually fade by Saturday afternoon. Temperatures will
remain below normal due to the considerable cold air advection,
cloud cover, and snow showers.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 PM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Warming trend to follow winter storm system departure

2) Next chance of precipitation mid next week

The low pressure system that has given us the windy and wintry
conditions will move well out of the Mid-Atlantic by this
weekend. Winds will calm down by Saturday evening and become
more southwesterly due to a high pressure system to the south.

500mb heights will increase and subtle ridging over the Mid-
Atlantic will bump temperatures by the start of next week.
High temperatures by Monday are expected to be in the 50s and
60s.

The next chance of precipitation will be towards mid-next week.
Another surface low will go over the Great Lakes early next week
and bring a cold front to our area. Dew points are expected to
pick up towards the 40s and 50s as the front approaches.
Precipitable water is also expected to reach 1" prior to the
front. GFS is more aggressive in the 1000-700mb moisture
advection than the EURO model, but moisture content will
increase regardless. Bulk shear is impressive with conservative
values of 50kts, but CAPE and lapse rates will not allow
widespread organized convection. The source of force for
precipitation will be due to the front itself and mountains as
most of the rain is currently projected to be towards the
western elevated portions of the CWA. Nevertheless, wind speeds
of 10-15 kts are antcipiated as the front moves through.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 130 PM EST Friday...

Key Points:

1) Potent weather system to arrive during Thanksgiving Break

2) Be careful when traveling and stay tuned for updates

Once the front mentioned in the short term forecast passes, a
high pressure system will move in. Temperatures will briefly
recover and increase as a result. This air mass, however, is
temporary as a more potent weather system from the Great Plains
will bring another chance of rain and cold weather towards the
end of the forecast period. Details on this system are uncertain
given how far out this system is but it is definitely something
that should be on everyone`s radar (pun 100% intended) since it
will be Thanksgiving Week.

What can be currently derived from the models is towards the end
of next week a mid level trough will extended southward and
bring a potent cold front through the CWA. There is disagreement
between the American and European models on the strength and
southward extent of the trough. Both however suggest a tight
pressure gradient after the front with strong winds. NBM has
wind gusts between 20 and 30 kts and the Weather Prediction
Center has also taken note and mentioned the wind threat in
their forecasts. Aside from the wind concern, temperatures will
tank due to a cold air advection set up between the surface and
500mb pressure levels. Wind chill values are expected to return
to the 20s and even teens post front.

Cloud cover shall return towards Thanksgiving and the frontal
system will bring another chance of precipitation. Dew points
are forecast to rise back towards the 40s and 50s and
preciptable water is anticipated to reach between 1" to 1.5."
Even so, it is too early to know what type of precipitation
there will be, where it will be, and how much there will be.

Due to this approaching weather pattern, the public is
encouraged to stay attentive to updates that could impact
Thanksgiving travels.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1245 PM EST Friday...

Northwest winds will increase and become quite gusty this
afternoon through tonight. Gusts of 25 to 35 knots at the
surface are expected at all aviation sites, and some gusts may
approach 40 to 45 knots across the higher elevations along the
southern Blue Ridge. The upslope northwest flow will produce low
ceilings with MVFR to IFR later tonight. In addition, mountain
snow showers impact BLF and LWB this evening through tonight.
Light snow showers may even reach BCB with sprinkles or
possibly flurries approaching ROA early tonight.

Confidence is high for poor flying weather west of the Blue
Ridge by tomorrow morning as ceilings remain low with only
gradual improvements during the day. While the Piedmont should
reach VFR by Saturday, it is doubtful if the aviation sites to
the west climb out of MVFR. The gusty northwest wind will
persist through Saturday but not be quite as strong. The
mountain snow showers and the gusty wind should gradually fade
by Saturday evening.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

High pressure will eventually arrive by Sunday to provide VFR
conditions. Good flying weather should continue through Monday,
but a cold front will arrive by Monday night into Tuesday to
bring a chance of rain and MVFR ceilings. High pressure should
return for Wednesday.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
As of 1245 PM EST Friday...

KFCX is back in service for this afternoon through tonight, but
it will be brought back down tomorrow to continue the ongoing
maintenance and repairs. Please use the following surrounding
radars on Saturday: KRLX (Charleston, WV), KLWX (Sterling, VA),
KAKQ (Wakefield VA), KRAH (Raleigh, NC), KGSP (Greenville-
Spartanburg SC), and KMRX (Morristown TN).

Observations from the KBLF ASOS are not available due to a FAA
communications circuit outage. Technicians are currently
working to restore service.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for VAZ015.
     Wind Advisory until 6 AM EST Saturday for VAZ007-009>020-
     022>024.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Saturday for VAZ007-009.
NC...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for NCZ001-018.
     Wind Advisory until 6 AM EST Saturday for NCZ001-002-018.
WV...Wind Advisory until 6 AM EST Saturday for WVZ042>044-507-508.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Saturday for WVZ042>044-
     507.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Saturday for WVZ508.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...PW
EQUIPMENT...PW