969
FXUS61 KRNK 240739
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
339 AM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure is centered over the region. This will promote hot
and humid weather through the week, along with light and
variable winds. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible
this evening. The coverage of showers and storms will gradually
increase later in the week, occurring mainly during the
afternoon and evening.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1) Hot and Humid today. Temperatures well into the 90s, and near
100 within the urban areas of Roanoke, Lynchburg, and Danville.

2) Extreme Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories are in effect
for much of the region...mainly for the lower elevations.

High pressure, surface and aloft, is producing strong
subsidence (compressional warming). This will promote
temperatures well into the 90s this afternoon with heat
indices above 100. The urban cities (ROA-LYH-DAN) may hit the
century mark. Dewpoints above 70 will be common and may remain
in the lower to mid 70s across the piedmont. In these areas the
combination of the high temperature and dewpoint will support
heat indices above 110 (what it will feel like to the body).
Extreme heat warnings are in effect for the areas where the heat
index is expected to be at or above 110. For the remainder of
the area heat advisories are in effect with the exception of the
higher elevations above 1500 feet MSL where it will be
relatively cooler (not be as hot).

The heat wave is expected to persist through much of the week,
although today should be the warmest day with respect to
temperature. Increasing moisture will begin to introduce more
cloud cover and scattered showers which should mute the
temperature by several degrees as we progress through the week,
but it will be just as humid. The moisture will combine with
daytime heating to spark a few isolated showers/storms late in
the day today...CAMS suggesting the high peaks to watch for
cloud build ups. A few showers may also be associated with
orographic lift near the Blue Ridge. Aside from that, no
support aloft for any organization, the strong subsidence from
the High a big limiting factor.

Similar to last night, it will be slow to cool off after
sunset...dewpoints AOA 70 helping to maintain the warmth. Last
night it was still 77 degrees on my drive into work in
Blacksburg. This is at an elevation of about 2100 feet MSL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for hot and humid weather to continue through
the end of this work week.

2) The chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms will steadily
rise each day.

An upper level ridge should persist across the Appalachian Mountains
on Wednesday. Meanwhile, a weak upper level low will drift
southwestward from Bermuda to Florida, and a stalled frontal
boundary should linger across the Great Lakes and the Northeast.
Adding all these factors together produces a net weakening and
flattening of the ridge towards the end of this work week. With the
notable heat wave caused by temperatures running about five to ten
degrees above normal for this time of year, the increasing moisture
will add plenty of instability to spark scattered showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon. The chances of convection should
steadily rise during the latter half of this week.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 200 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for temperatures to remain above normal.

2) Showers and thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon.

With a broad upper level ridge encompassing the southern United
States during the upcoming weekend, temperatures should remain about
five degrees above normal. The combination of a stalled frontal
boundary to the north and weak energy from an upper level low
dissipating into the aforementioned ridge will provide sufficient
lift for convection to develop each afternoon. The ample heat and
moisture should increase the coverage of showers and thunderstorms,
and orographical lift will help make locations along and west of the
Blue Ridge have the highest chance of storms. The models indicate
that the overall synoptic pattern remains stagnant through Monday,
so it could stay hot and humid with a risk of afternoon convection
into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 AM EDT Tuesday...

Other than some late night/early morning river valley fog
potentially impacting KLWB, VFR conditions and light winds are
expected for the valid TAF forecast period concluding at 06Z
Wed/2AM EDT. Winds will be generally light and variable or calm
through the period. Cloud buildups near the Blue Ridge may
produce some isolated thunderstorms between 22Z/6PM and
03Z/11PM. Winds aloft are weak, so movement of these convective
cells should be easy to navigate.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

High pressure should maintain VFR conditions through most of the
week. As the moisture builds during the week, the chances of
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will steadily
increase. Aside from these localized sub-VFR weather
phenomena,the only other sub-VFR condition to watch for is the
late night and early morning river valley fog which may impact
LWB and BCB.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM EDT this evening
     for VAZ022>024-032-033-043.
     Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM EDT this
     evening for VAZ034-035-044>047-058-059.
NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM EDT this evening
     for NCZ003>005-019-020.
     Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM EDT this
     evening for NCZ006.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...PM