886
FXUS61 KRNK 091922
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
222 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure moves from the Great Lakes to off the mid-Atlantic
coast by Sunday as a front tracks in from the west. This front
crosses our area tomorrow night into Monday providing a good
chance for showers. High pressure settles into the region by
Tuesday, followed by another front by Thursday with limited
moisture.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW/...
As of 100 PM EST Saturday...

Key message:

1)Beneficial rain will start across the region mid-morning Sunday,
with higher terrain locations likely seeing higher precipitation
totals compared to the Piedmont.

Surface high pressure centered over central New York tonight is
expected to slide southeast off the coast of the Virginia by Sunday
morning. As this happens, the northeast wedge that has quickly
developed today will transition to a more southeasterly flow during
the overnight hours. This may lead to some stronger winds of 10-15
mph with gusts to 20-25 mph on the western slopes of the Appalachians
in West Virginia overnight. As the surface flow becomes more
southeasterly, moisture will advect into the region ahead of a
quickly approaching frontal boundary that is currently draped across
the Mississippi valley today.  This frontal boundary will bring
increased rain chances to the area, with West Virginia locations
likely seeing isolated to scattered rain showers starting in the mid
morning hours before expanding in coverage by the evening hours. The
further east across the forecast area the lower the coverage of rain
showers is forecast. This will also reduce the total precipitation
forecasted, with much of the West Virginia counties expecting around
0.50 inches, which decreases to around 0.25-0.30 inches across
portions of Southwest Virginia west of the Blue Ridge. These
forecast rainfall totals continue to decrease to around 0.10-0.20
across the Piedmont of Virginia and North Carolina. The rainfall
totals decrease from west to east across the forecast area as upper
level forcing for ascent is again expected to lift to the north. The
main upper level shortwave vorticity maxima in association with the
aforementioned frontal boundary is expected to ride over the pesky
upper level ridge that has been entrenched over the southeast United
States for the last month or so. Overall, expect a rainy day across
the region for many on Sunday, with eastern areas seeing the
rainfall start slightly later in the afternoon compared to western
zones. High temperatures look to remain in the 50s across higher
terrain locations, and the low 60s across the Piedmont. Lows tonight
will generally fall into the low 40s to upper 30s across the region.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 111 PM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

1) Rain Likely Sunday night into Monday morning.

2) Dry weather returns by late Monday with temperatures above normal.

An upper level low over the Great Lakes will push a cold front over
the area Monday. Prefrontal showers are likely Sunday night into
Monday afternoon, followed by drier and cooler air Monday night into
Tuesday night. Rainfall amounts will range from a half of an inch
along western slopes (Tazewell VA to Greenbrier WV) to a quarter of
an inch for the rest of the mountains. Rainfall amounts across the
foothills and piedmont will range around one to two tenths of an
inch (0.10 to 0.20). Though excessive rainfall is marginal, not
seeing any signs of heavy downpours or flooding issues with this
system, aside from potential culverts ponding due to leaves and rain.
An area of high pressure will move from the Great Lakes Monday to
New England Tuesday. High pressure will then wedge south into the
area Tuesday night.

Mild temperatures expected Monday with highs in the 60s west of the
Blue Ridge to the low and mid 70s east. Cooler temperatures Tuesday
with highs ranging from the mid to upper 50s across the mountains to
the mid and upper 60s in the foothills and piedmont.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 115 PM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

1: Mainly dry this period.

2: Temperatures running closer to normal.

A wedge of cool and dry high pressure will begin to erode Wednesday
as a cold front approaches the region from the west. This cold front
is expected to track over the region Wednesday night. With a dry air
mass in place and low pressure tracking north of the Great Lakes,
there is a low chance for measurable rainfall for the area. Another
area of high pressure will build over the region Thursday, keeping
dry conditions going into next weekend.

Temperatures will remain warmer than normal through the period. The
cold day of the period will be Wednesday with highs in the upper 50s
to lower 60s. By the weekend, temperatures will be around 10F warmer
than normal.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1200 PM EST Saturday...

VFR conditions look to remain for a majority of the TAF period,
with possible MVFR conditions starting towards the end of the
TAF period as a front starts to push into the area from the
west. Western TAF sites will likely be the first to drop to MVFR
levels as lower CIGs develop mid day on Sunday. Winds will
initially be northeasterly for the remainder of today, but look
to transition to easterly this evening and during the early
overnight hours. Winds will eventually become southeasterly by
Sunday morning. Winds will predominantly remain around 5-10
knots at all TAF sites; however, BLF could see some gusty winds
overnight. Rain chances will also increase across the area
starting tomorrow mid day.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK

The front clears out by midday Monday, with VFR conditions
returning through the middle of the work week as high pressure
settles back into the eastern conus.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SH/WP
NEAR TERM...EB
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...EB