683
FXUS61 KRNK 290642
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
242 AM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Less coverage of showers/storms today.

Aviation updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A few showers/storms today mainly south of the VA/NC border.

2) Heat builds into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Few showers/storms today mainly south of the
VA/NC border.

A few showers still linger across the Blue Ridge northwest of
Lynchburg this morning associated with some upper divergence and
low level convergence with a trough/front in place.

Overall, models show more sinking/subsidence kicking in behind
the upper trough today, with better support for storms shifting
further south into the Carolinas/Georgia. Cannot rule out some
differential heating with low level convergence showers/storms
today mainly across our NC counties, but trends favor most of
the area staying dry. Pops have been reduced to 20-30 percent at
most from the Blue Ridge of VA south of Roanoke/Blacksburg into
NC. Not anticipating any severe or flooding concerns.


KEY MESSAGE 2: Heat returns next week.

A expanding 5h ridge will shift east into our area early next
week suppressing convection. Temperatures soar to as much as 10
degrees above normal with 90s returning Monday and lasting
through at least Thursday for the foothills/Piedmont including
Roanoke, even some 90s possible in the mountain valleys. By
late next week trough sinks further south into the northern
Mid- Atlantic and could start to see convection ramp up again.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Opportunity for patchy dense fog to develop this morning at LWB
perhaps BCB. Less confidence at other sites. Visibilities
dropping to LIFR from the fog is at LWB, and IFR at BCB. The
fog should burn off by 13-14z. Mainly VFR otherwise.
Showers/storms will be even more widely scattered Saturday
afternoon and mainly south of the VA/NC border.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

High pressure will build across the Appalachian Mountains on
Sunday to bring drier weather and mainly VFR conditions into
early next week. A warming trend should take place between
Monday and Wednesday. The only possibility that could disrupt
the VFR conditions would be any patchy morning fog in the
typical mountain valley terminals.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BMG/PW/WP
AVIATION...PW/WP