061
FXUS61 KRNK 221746
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1246 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Gusty northwest winds and mountain snow showers will continue
through tonight and into Saturday morning. The wind and snow
showers should eventually fade by Saturday night with drier and
milder conditions expected for Sunday and Monday. The next
chance of rain may arrive on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1245 PM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for mountain snow showers through
Saturday morning before fading by Saturday afternoon.

2) Gusty northwest winds will persist through Saturday.

No changes to the headlines have been made. Another lobe of
vorticity will pass aloft in association with a deep upper level
low this afternoon. There will be a notable increase of wind in
the wake of this feature as the 850 mb jet strengthens to near
60 kt, which will result in surface winds gusting up to 50 mph
along the higher elevations. These winds should linger into
Saturday morning but slowly fade by Saturday afternoon as the
jet weakens.

In addition, the lobe of vorticity will reinforce mountain snow
showers from Boone to Lewisburg. The highest accumulations will
occur in western Greenbrier County. Snow showers and flurries
may extend further east towards the Interstate 81 corridor in
southwest Virginia early tonight but with considerably lower
accumulations. Similar to the winds, the mountain snow showers
should gradually fade by Saturday afternoon. Temperatures will
remain below normal due to the considerable cold air advection,
cloud cover, and snow showers.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 AM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

1. Cool and breezy Saturday, warming temperatures through the
period.
2. Next chance for precipitation comes Monday/early Tuesday.

The deep upper low responsible for the few days of upslope snow
showers and well below normal temperatures will shift farther
eastward into the Atlantic coast off New England through the
weekend. As the low, along with its dynamics and stronger
northwesterly flow, upslope snow showers will slowly come to an
end for the western counties of the forecast area, maybe a few
lingering flurries in western Greenbrier WV by Saturday night,
but not expecting much elsewhere. Winds will still be breezy,
though not as a strong as the past few days, with surface high
pressure building back into the region from the southeastern
states. 500mb flow will flatten into Sunday morning, then slight
ridging into Monday. Therefore, temperatures will start on a
warming trend Sunday into the beginning of the work week.

An upper trough dips into the northern Plains late in the
weekend, and tracks into the Great Lakes early in the work
week. The associated surface low and attendant cold front will
reach the central Appalachians Monday night. Timing of the onset
of precipitation looks to be Monday afternoon, with the
majority of the precipitation falling during the overnight hours
into Tuesday morning. Most of this precipitation will likely be
liquid, given the above freezing temperatures from the surface
through about 850mb per forecast soundings. NBM probabilities
for snow during this event are less than 5% at this time.

Temperatures will start the weekend a few degrees below normal
in the east, to 10 to 15 degrees below normal in the west
Saturday. With mostly clear skies and increasing 500mb heights,
Sunday and Monday will be warmer, with highs in the low to mid
50s in the west and low 60s in the east Sunday, and upper 50s to
mid to upper 60s in the east by Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 245 AM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

1. Showers early Tuesday with warmer than normal temperatures.
2. Near normal temperatures for Thanksgiving, with increasing
probabilities for precipitation.

With the approach and subsequent passage of the next cold front
through the area, showers will be ongoing at the start of the
long term forecast period, but diminishing by later in the day,
with some showers lingering in the west by Tuesday afternoon.
Winds will increase and become gusty Tuesday, as 850mb winds
increase to 45 knots, along with steep pressure rises behind the
front, though should relax by Wednesday.

Another upper wave approaches the area Wednesday into Thursday,
this time from the central/southern Plains, and so
probabilities are increasing for precipitation falling during
the Thanksgiving holiday. Some of the highest elevations may see
some snow mix in with the rain, but most of the precipitation
looks to be rain at this time. Details on timing and amounts are
uncertain, but it is still not too early to be reviewing travel
plans and being cognizant of potential hazardous travel
conditions.

A quick mention on the forecast beyond the long term. An active
weather pattern looks to be shaping up for the weekend after
Thanksgiving, with below normal temperatures and high winds
possible, as a deepening trough passes through the eastern US.
Though confidence is low on specifics this far out, confidence is
increasing for weather impacts during one of the busiest travel
weekends of the entire year. Stay tuned to the local forecast as
details come into better focus during the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1245 PM EST Friday...

Northwest winds will increase and become quite gusty this
afternoon through tonight. Gusts of 25 to 35 knots at the
surface are expected at all aviation sites, and some gusts may
approach 40 to 45 knots across the higher elevations along the
southern Blue Ridge. The upslope northwest flow will produce low
ceilings with MVFR to IFR later tonight. In addition, mountain
snow showers impact BLF and LWB this evening through tonight.
Light snow showers may even reach BCB with sprinkles or
possibly flurries approaching ROA early tonight.

Confidence is high for poor flying weather west of the Blue
Ridge by tomorrow morning as ceilings remain low with only
gradual improvements during the day. While the Piedmont should
reach VFR by Saturday, it is doubtful if the aviation sites to
the west climb out of MVFR. The gusty northwest wind will
persist through Saturday but not be quite as strong. The
mountain snow showers and the gusty wind should gradually fade
by Saturday evening.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

High pressure will eventually arrive by Sunday to provide VFR
conditions. Good flying weather should continue through Monday,
but a cold front will arrive by Monday night into Tuesday to
bring a chance of rain and MVFR ceilings. High pressure should
return for Wednesday.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
As of 1245 PM EST Friday...

KFCX is back in service for this afternoon through tonight, but
it will be brought back down tomorrow to continue the ongoing
maintenance and repairs. Please use the following surrounding
radars on Saturday: KRLX (Charleston, WV), KLWX (Sterling, VA),
KAKQ (Wakefield VA), KRAH (Raleigh, NC), KGSP (Greenville-
Spartanburg SC), and KMRX (Morristown TN).

Observations from the KBLF ASOS are not available due to a FAA
communications circuit outage. Technicians are currently
working to restore service.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for VAZ015.
     Wind Advisory until 6 AM EST Saturday for VAZ007-009>020-
     022>024.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Saturday for VAZ007-009.
NC...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for NCZ001-018.
     Wind Advisory until 6 AM EST Saturday for NCZ001-002-018.
WV...Wind Advisory until 6 AM EST Saturday for WVZ042>044-507-508.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Saturday for WVZ042>044-
     507.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Saturday for WVZ508.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...PW
EQUIPMENT...PW