Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
392 FXUS61 KRNK 022329 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 729 PM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation update. Storms have moved southward into North Carolina and will be out of the forecast area by 9PM the latest. && .KEY MESSAGES... KEY MESSAGE 1: Scattered showers and storms in the mountains this afternoon. Dry weather with warming temperatures through the rest of the week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Scattered showers and storms in the mountains this afternoon. Dry weather with warming temperatures through the rest of the week. A disturbance is going to shift across the area this afternoon allowing for scattered showers/storms to move from the Alleghanys south into the mountains of SW VA into NW NC. A few storms could bring gusty winds as forecast soundings suggest dry layer in the low levels/inverted V sounding but not expecting severe winds, maybe gusts to 30 to 40 mph in the stronger storms. Not much rain still with this system so the drought persists. A few spots could get a quarter inch+ which may give you a day break from watering your plants/grass. A broad surface high will push south from the Great Lakes region, and help keep temperatures on the cooler side tonight as temps fall into the mid to upper 40s. As the high and dry airmass becomes more settled overhead by Wednesday, upper ridging over the central US and Midwest will also expand eastward through the week. The ridge does begin to flatten towards the weekend, as a couple shortwaves move through the northern stream flow and the trough once over the eastern seaboard begins to move farther out to sea. Temperatures will start on a warming trend, and highs will climb back into the 80s areawide, to low 90s in the Piedmont and Southside by the end of the work week. High pressure will also keep the weather dry and quiet for the rest of the week, and dewpoints remain low, so the heat later in the week will not feel too oppressive. That being said, the NWS HeatRisk tool does have a Moderate risk of heat related impacts for Friday through Sunday over the Piedmont, meaning the heat may affect those sensitive to heat, especially those without cooling and/or hydration. The next system that could bring some precipitation to the area does not arrive until at least Sunday, although model solutions begin to diverge late in the weekend and early next week with the evolution of a 500mb trough over the Great Lakes and a front dropping south towards the area. The surface high shifts offshore and increasing south to southwesterly return flow will also bring in additional moisture, which could help spark some afternoon showers and thunderstorms for Sunday and Monday. However, the coverage and organization of any convection will be influenced the trough and surface front, so forecast uncertainty does increase after Sunday. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The scattered thunderstorms this afternoon have passed into North Carolina, returning mostly clear and VFR skies for the rest of the evening for all terminals. With the recent rainfall and calming winds overnight, patchy fog is possible at KLWB, KBLF, and KBCB during the early morning hours of Wednesday. Once the sun rises, all fog should dissipate quickly. All terminals will then return to VFR status for the rest of Wednesday with mostly clear skies and a shift of winds from the north. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... High pressure will build in by Wednesday morning, keeping dry and quiet conditions across all terminals for several days. VFR conditions will persist through at least Saturday, with the only potential drop in flight conditions being patchy nighttime fog, mainly for the mountain and river valleys, though the dry airmass in place could keep fog development limited. Next system possibly brings sub-VFR with showers/storms Sunday. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AS/WP AVIATION...CG/EB/WP