740
FXUS61 KRNK 250821
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
321 AM EST Mon Nov 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

A cold front crosses the area Monday night and Tuesday with a
chance of precipitation mainly in the mountains. A complex low
pressure system over the southeast United States will bring
widespread precipitation to the area Wednesday night through
Thursday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 300 AM EST Monday...

Key messages:

1. Above normal temperatures today.
2. Rain showers developing overnight primarily across western
facing slopes.

Upper level ridging will build across the region today, which
will continue to raise 500mb heights over the eastern conus.
This will lead to well above average high temperatures today,
with many seeing mid to upper 60s for highs. A quick moving
shortwave trough across the Dakotas today will aid in developing
a surface low across northern Illinois and Indiana throughout
the day today. As this occurs, a developing cold front
stretching south towards western Kentucky and Tennessee Monday
evening will quickly progress into West Virginia overnight
Monday, while the aforementioned surface low lifts north into
northern Michigan. As this happens light to moderate showers
look to spread across the western facing slopes of the
Appalachians in West Virginia, but are expected to struggle to
produce much more than light showers as they continue east
towards the Piedmont. With extensive cloud cover expected
overnight, temperatures will remain warmer than previous nights,
with low temperatures only falling into the low to mid 40s
areawide.



&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 AM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

1. Rain ending Tuesday morning.
2. Cooler and dry Tuesday into Wednesday.
3. Light to moderate rainfall arrives late Wednesday night and
continues into Thanksgiving Day.

A cold front and showers will exit the piedmont Tuesday morning.
Breezy and gusty conditions will follow the front, especially across
the mountains. Tuesday`s high temperatures will range from the upper
40s to lower 50s across the mountains and low to mid 60s in the
foothills and piedmont.

High pressure will build into the region by Tuesday`s evening
commute, allowing the winds to relax overnight. Cold air will filter
into the area with overnight lows dropping into the mid 20s to lower
30s west of the Blue Ridge and in the lower 30s east. Cool
conditions continue into Wednesday with highs running in the 50s.

A low pressure system will move across Tennessee Wednesday night,
then along the Virginia/North Carolina border on Thanksgiving Day.
Moderate rainfall is likely in the morning, especially south of
Highway 460. This low pressure system will move off the Virginia-
North Carolina coast in the evening, which will allow a cold front
to sink south into North Carolina overnight. Another wave of low
pressure will then move over the Carolinas Thursday night, keeping
light showers over the forecast area. Showers will come to an end by
sunrise Friday. Storm total rainfall will range from a half to one
inch.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 210 AM EST Monday...

Key Points:

1. Breezy plus mountain rain/snow showers on Friday.
2. Dry and very cold for next weekend.
3. Clipper may bring snow to parts of the area Saturday night.

An upper level trough will pivot over the region Friday. With a
moist northwest flow, upslope rain and snow showers will persist
into the day. High pressure will bring drier and colder air to the
area Friday night into Saturday. A clipper may bring a chance for
light snow Saturday night, followed by an Arctic blast of cold air
Sunday. Temperatures this weekend into early next week will run 10F
to 20F colder than normal.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1230 AM EST Monday...

VFR conditions are expected to prevail for most terminals sites
through the entire TAF period. Both BLF and LWB look to develop
MVFR restrictions via low CIGs during 00-03 UTC Tuesday. These
restrictions will be in association with an incoming cold front
that will bring light rain showers to both TAF sites. All other
terminals will remain VFR; however, lower CIGs will likely move
in after this TAF cycles ends. Winds will predominantly remain
out of the southwest for all sites at around 5-10 knots.


Above average confidence for ceiling, visibility, and wind.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

A cold front will arrive tonight into Tuesday to bring a chance
of rain and MVFR ceilings. High pressure and dry weather should
return for Wednesday.

Models were still different with the timing and location of low
pressure developing in the Southern Plains on Wednesday. A
majority of the solutions have widespread rain across the area
on Thursday with associated IFR/MVFR ceilings/vsbys.
Precipitation pulls out to the east by Friday, leaving only
upslope rain and snow showers and MVFR flight conditions in the
mountains.

&&


.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...EB
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...EB