278
FXUS61 KRNK 102332
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
632 PM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An Arctic cold front has ushered in very cold temperatures and
light snow, along with blustery winds. Snow showers will taper
off Tuesday morning but winds and chilly temperatures will
remain into Tuesday night. Dry weather can be expected the rest
of the week with near normal temperatures. The next chance for
precipitation will be with a system Sunday through Monday night,
with only rain expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 615 PM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

1) Accumulating snow showers through overnight, with highest
amounts in western Greenbrier County. Light snow
showers/flurries as far east as the Piedmont late this evening.

2) Sustained, strong west becoming northwest winds of 15 to 25
mph with gusts of 30 to 40+ mph are expected, especially along
the ridgetops, especially tonight through Tuesday.

3) Wind chills fall into the single digits and teens tonight
into early Tuesday morning. Daytime wind chills Tuesday also
below freezing.

Expect center of upper low to push across the southern
Appalachians this evening with best lift and burst of snow
showers to occur before midnight, then taper to just upslope
snow showers and flurries thereafter. Current headlines as is
look good, an anticipating another 3-5 inches in western
Greenbrier tonight tapering to a dusting to an inch further east
and south. This strong an upper system will produce snow
showers/flurries in the Piedmont as well, and will bring a
dusting to mainly grassy surfaces. Pretty good for early/mid
November.

The only climate site that could reach a record low tonight is
Danville, but with the winds staying up most sites will stay
above any records. Winds and wind chills will also outside
advisory levels, but those venturing out in the morning will
need to bundle up with some single digit wind chills likely in
the mountains.

Previous discussion...

A potent upper level low was making a slow transition through
the OH and TN Valleys, with the mean trough stretching from
the FL Panhandle to northern Canada. The strongest vorticity
maxima was moving through KY, and will continue to push into the
Carolinas and Virginia tonight. By Tuesday morning, we will be
on the backside of the trough, with strong NW flow in place.

Strong dynamics aloft along with some low level instability have
supported persistent light snow showers today. So far we have
accumulated up to 2 inches across the western mountains of NC,
VA, and WV. Generally west of the Blue Ridge high temperatures
will only reach the mid 20s to low 30s, while to the east, more
sunlight has helped readings warm into the upper 30s to mid 40s.
SO there could be some rain mixing in over the foothills
currently.

Near term models support the likelihood of snow squalls
overnight for the mountains and foothills, as the convergence
and pressure gradient increase along a weak surface trough/wind
shift line. This will support more snow showers as additional
upslope mechanisms kick in. While a strong snowband does not
appear likely based on WPC`s snowband probabilities, BUFKIT
soundings show a saturated dendritic growth zone, and we will
likely see periods of moderate snow and perhaps even some
thundersnow as the -40C core passes by aloft. This northern area
of upslope showers continues into mid morning Tuesday for WV
before tapering off. A trace of snow will be possible over the
entire area, however, with strong winds carrying snow and ice
crystals downwind.

Also, for the SE Piedmont near Lynchburg, South Boston, and
Danville, light snow is possible during the late night/early
morning hours Tuesday. Through Tuesday morning, storm totals
will approach 6 to 9 inches for western Greenbrier County, WV,
with other high peaks in WV, VA, and NC seeing between 3 to 6
inches. Around the Blacksburg and Roanoke areas, we should see
up to 2 inches, while areas east of the Blue Ridge will be
closer to a half inch or less.

Wind speeds are currently in the 15 to 25 mph zone, but will
intensify overnight into Tuesday with the passage of a 50 kt
LLJ.  Expect gusts on the higher ridges to be around 40 to 45
mph , with lower elevations seeing up to 35 mph. This will
support wind chills between 7 to 10F in the mountains, and 10 to
about 18F in the Piedmont. Parts of the mountains will also see
blowing snow with these speeds.

The wind will be the main concern Tuesday, with similar gusts to
the overnight hours, with sunny skies leading to deep mixing
by mid morning for most. Moderate to strong CAA will mean highs
only in the low to mid 30s for most in the mountains, despite
the sun. The Piedmont will be in the 40s again. That said, with
the wind, daytime wind chills Tuesday will be below freezing
everywhere.

Confidence is moderate in the near term forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1200 PM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

1) Gusty winds continue into the middle of the week.

2) Warmer weather returns.

Gusty winds from the previous cold front will continue into the
middle of the week. Winds east of the Blue Ridge will likely
gust between 15-20 mph, 20-30 mph along and west of the Blue
Ridge, and up to 40 mph at the highest elevations. Winds will be
strong but lighter on Thursday and finally quiet down by Friday
morning. There is a concern for fire weather given the
continual dry conditions and relative humidity values between
25-35%. This will be monitored as we progress through the week.

The other headline worth mentioning is temperatures will recover
by Wednesday to seasonal average values. While Wednesday
morning will be in the upper 20s to mid-30s, Thursday morning
will be in the mid- 30s to lower 40s. High temperatures will
also climb back into the upper 40s to lower 60s. (The wide
temperature variation is due to cloud cover passing through from
another cold front later in the week). The air will moisten up
a little but will still be pretty dry with dew points recovering
from the teens into the 20s and 30s.

Another cold front is set to pass through later in the week but
it will be a dry front and precipitation chances for the area
are very low. A high pressure system over the southeastern CONUS
and another system traveling to the Mid-Atlantic from the Great
Plains will keep conditions quiet.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1210 PM EST Monday...

Key Points:

1. Mild through the period.
2. Dry Friday.
3. Rain and rain showers gradually increase in coverage through
the weekend into early next week (best potential Sunday night
into early Monday).

A look a the 10 Nov 00Z NCEP Ensemble Mean 500mb Geopotential
Heights shows for Friday/Friday night a highly amplified ridge
extending from the Gulf Coast states to Hudson Bay. An equally
highly amplified ridge is expected to extend from Alberta to the
Four Corners region. A closed low will be situated over the
Canadian Maritimes. For Saturday/Saturday night, the ridge
axis shifts east to over our region. The trough moves east into
the Central Plains. A closed low remains parked over the
Canadian Maritimes. For Sunday/Sunday night, the ridge axis
shifts east to over New England, and the trough moves east to
over the Great Lakes and Lower Ohio Valley region. Another
trough-ridge pairing is expected to develop between the Pacific
Northwest and the Rockies. For Monday, the Lower Ohio Valley
trough is expected to cross our region.

At the surface for Friday/Friday night, high pressure will be
centered just off the coast of the Carolinas. Its associated
ridge axis is expected to extend north across our region and
into Quebec. Low pressure and an associated cold front will be
progressing through the Northern and Central Plains states. For
Saturday/Saturday night, both the ridge axis and the cold front
make a little progress eastward. For Sunday/Sunday night, the
ridge axis continue to shift farther east, while low pressure
moves into the Great Lakes region. Its associated cold front
will trail south into the mid-Mississippi Valley with a warm
front extending southeast into the mid-Atlantic region. For
Monday, the low is expected to head east, reaching New England
by the evening hours. Its associated cold front by that time is
expected to trail southeast along the Atlantic coast.

A look at the 10 Nov 00Z NAEFS Ensemble Situational Awareness
data shows 850mb temperatures for Friday are expected to range
from +7C to +8C, ne-sw, across the region. For Saturday, values
trend upward closer to the +9C to +10C, ne-sw, across the area.
Values start trending downward late Saturday night, with
readings by Sunday afternoon around +7C to +9C, nw-se. Little
change in temperature is expected for Monday as compared to
Sunday.

The above weather patterns offers the following forecast. As the
axis of the ridge progresses farther east, and a trough
approaches from the west, our winds back to southwest on Friday.
Speeds will be relatively weaker as compared to the previous
two days. The southwest flow will help advect higher dew points
and temperatures into the region. This warming trend continues
on Saturday thanks to to a warm front lifting across the region
from southwest to northeast. Patchy light rain associated with
this warm front may skirt parts of southeast West Virginia
Friday night. The warm front may be slow to exit the region,
offering additional potential for light rain Saturday night into
Sunday. By Sunday night into Monday, the upstream cold front is
expected to cross our region, and be east of the region by the
evening hours. This feature should help bring rain isolated to
scattered rain showers to the region, especially over western
sections.

Temperatures during this portion of the forecast are expected to
trend upward through Sunday, with a small decrease on Monday.
For all the days, values will be above normal for this time of
year.

Confidence in the above weather scenario is moderate.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 620 PM EST Monday...

Expect sub-VFR cigs and at times vsbys at BLF/LWB through the
night with snow showers impacting the vsby. Further east, snow
showers/flurries may reduce vsbys to MVFR at BCB/ROA but
confidence is low for it to last no more than 15 minutes.

A west-northwest wind will be gusting 20-35kts at times through
Tuesday morning.

Once the main system passes overnight snow showers to taper to
flurries with most sites going to VFR before 12z, with BLF
switching to VFR after 12z.



.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Wind gusts will persist through Wednesday and reach up to 25-35
kts at times, otherwise VFR. By Thursday, high pressure moves
overhead promoting clear skies and light winds. Should be VFR
into Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 1200 PM EST Monday...

Key Message:

1) Enhanced fire danger concerns for mid to late week.

After the big cool down temperatures moderate through the end
of the work week. This will be occurring while we maintain some
element of a westerly, eventually northwesterly, winds which
will frequently have daytime gusts close to 30 to 40 mph in the
mountains and 20 mph to 25 mph across the Piedmont through
Wednesday.Thursday and Friday will be the day with the weakest
winds. Lowering daily minimum RH values, and subsidence in the
east, thanks to the wind orientation, will help for drying of
fuels. These same fuels are the ones which received generally
less then one- quarter of an inch Friday night, and less than
one-tenth of an inch Sunday night. For tonight into Tuesday,
only a little precipitation east of the Blue Ridge is expected.
The confidence in an enhanced fire danger scenario is
increasing.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for VAZ007-009-
     010-015.
NC...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for NCZ001-018.
WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for WVZ042-043.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Tuesday for WVZ508.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SH/WP
NEAR TERM...SH/WP
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...SH/WP
FIRE WEATHER...CG/WP