328
FXUS61 KRNK 071839
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
239 PM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will slowly progress east across the area through
tonight. A much colder airmass arrives Tuesday. Next chance for
rain arrives Thursday into Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 205 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

1) Rain moves out and colder air returns

2) A few mountain snow showers/flurries tonight and brisk Tuesday but
dry

Weather analysis has a low pressure along the front across southern
VA this afternoon with rain start to slide east of our area. Still
could see some showers into late afternoon with the upper trough
arriving along with vicinity of frontal boundary but for most part
most folks will be dry.

Colder air has made it as far east as the WV mountains where temps
are in the 40s. As we head through this evening, front pushes to the
coast while another front races southeast toward us overnight. This
will bring temperatures at least in the mountains back toward early
March normals, but close to normal in the Piedmont, with mid 20s to
around 30 west, to lower 40s Piedmont.

The rain in the mountains will mix with and change to snow showers
this evening, but will be limited thanks to drying airmass and
warmer ground temps. Could see a dusting of snow across the higher
ridges north of Bluefield, and west of Lewisburg, WV.

Airmass dries big time Tuesday as dewpoints sink into the teens. A
northwest wind gusting to 20-30 mph will help bring the dry air in
as well, while skies will be mostly sunny. Will be a balancing act
between the cold advection and the early April sunshine. Leaning
toward a blend of the models favors highs in the 40s in the
mountains to 50s east, which is about 10 to 20 degrees below normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 215 PM EDT MONDAY...

Key Messages:

1) Quiet with below normal temperatures Wednesday.

2) Showers return Thursday.

After a larger cold front and a smaller reinforcing frontal passage
Monday night, temperatures will be quite chilly for mid-April. A
region of high pressure will suppress any rain formation through
Wednesday. Clear and dry atmospheric conditions with calm winds on
Tuesday night will compound the already cold air mass with radiative
cooling and drop temperatures below freezing for the entire forecast
area.

By Thursday we will be seeing the approach of a shortwave embedded
in a much larger trough. We will begin with some upslope showers
early Thursday, spreading across to the east as the trough axis
deepens and comes closer to the forecast area.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...

Key Message:

1) Lingering showers through the early weekend

A deep trough axis positioned through the OH Valley and into the Mid-
Atlantic will be the cause of much of the weather for this period.
Said trough will encourage the development and strengthening of a
surface low along the east coast. This low exits to the north
sometime on Saturday, while the larger upper level trough will
maintain its position overhead for a bit longer. Both of these
features will serve to support to formation of showers on and off
through much of Saturday, and begin to clear on Sunday as we will
then likely be on the backside of the trough.

High pressure and ridging in the wake of the trough will quiet our
weather down for Sunday and Monday. In addition, temperatures will
moderate warmer over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 120 PM EDT Monday...

Will keep showers around east of the Blue Ridge this afternoon
with MVFR to IFR cigs and at times sub-VFR vsbys.

Further west, the rain showers have faded but lower cigs
especially at BLF should linger into the overnight. A few
upslope rain and snow showers possible but mainly northwest of
LWB/BLF overnight. Expect clearing and/or rising heights from
BCB/ROA east this evening into midnight. For the most part winds
will be out of the west to northwest though some variable
directions are possible early in the Piedmont due to low
pressure moving along a front. Some gusts to 20kts possible this
afternoon and again late Tuesday morning.

BLF/LWB should scatter out to VFR between 12-18z Tue.


.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

VFR conditions through Wednesday. Next chance for sub-VFR comes
Thursday afternoon with another low pressure system moving
across the region, and this will linger into Friday with the
front, possibly into Saturday for the mountains.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...VFJ
AVIATION...WP