346
FXUS61 KRNK 241807
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
207 PM EDT Sat May 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure is currently over the region, but it will slowly
start retreating to the north as we head into the next work
week. A front over the southern and southeast US will gradually
work its way toward our region. A series of disturbances moving
along this front will keep showers in the forecast for much of
the upcoming week, but not the entire week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

1. Below normal temperatures.
2. Showers slowly overspread mainly central and southern parts of
the area on Sunday.

Mid to high level cloud cover was moving into our area this
afternoon in association with thunderstorms over the mid-Mississippi
Valley. Overnight, we can expect more of the same, but there may be
a trend towards lesser cloud cover across the north. Late tonight,
we expect southerly low level flow to advect enough moisture upslope
along the crest of the Blue Ridge over northwest North Carolina to
generate some light patchy drizzle. This trend is expected to
continue as daybreak approaches and we progress through Sunday
morning. The drizzle will trend to light rain showers over the
mountains of northwest North Carolina, and neighboring sections of
southwest Virginia by the mid to late morning. Coverage of the
showers is expected to continue through Sunday, with most areas
along and south of a line from Hinton, WV to Lynchburg, VA seeing
measurable rain by the late afternoon. Coverage and amounts will be
greatest across southwest portions of the region.

Temperatures will be on the cool side again tonight, especially
across the mountains. A mix of low to mid 40s are expected for lows
across the mountains and upper 40s to lower 50s for the Piedmont
region. Some of the higher locations of southeast West Virginia,
where cloud cover is expected to be the least, may see lows touch
the upper 30s. With more cloud cover and showers moving into the
region, high temperatures on Sunday are expected to be lower on
average than those of today. Some of the higher peaks and ridges may
only reach the upper 50s. Expect mid to upper 60s for most of the
mountain region and upper 60s to lower 70s for the Piedmont area.

Confidence in the above weather scenario is moderate to high.
Timing of the arrival of the precipitation is the biggest
question mark.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 115 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Message:

1) Will see increasing rain chances by Tuesday.

Upper pattern at the start of the period will feature a strong
shortwave slicing through the northern Mid-Altantic with shortwave
ridging building into the TN Valley. At the surface, high pressure
will be centered over the western Great Lakes, riding southward into
the central Appalachians, while a frontal boundary stays draped from
off the SC coast west-southwest into the Deep South. Will likely see
clouds around Sunday night, isentropic lift through our area
contributing to rain, with a sharp cutoff likely bisecting the
forecast area, with higher chances of measurable rain south of U.S.
460 with lower chances toward the I-64 corridor.

Models differ on the northern extent of rainfall but model blend
appears to lean toward drying things out after midnight into
Memorial Day from north to south as bubble high drifts into the
area. Surge in moisture again starts Monday night as yet another
shortwave works across the Ohio and TN Valleys, with surface low
cross the mid MS Valley and a warm front lifting northward into mid
TN. A southeast to east flow off the Atlantic as the high pushes to
New England combined with southerly flow aloft to bring better rain
chances in Tuesday from southwest to northeast. Models are in
general agreement on this, though some intensity/qpf differences
remain, but overall, looking at Tuesday to be the wettest day, with
some carrying over into Tuesday night.

We start to wedge in Monday night into Tuesday and with rain could
see temperatures struggle through the 60s for highs. Leaned cooler
than NBM, and could potentially see highs in the 50s along/west of
the Blue Ridge.

Forecast confidence is above average on sky cover/pops/wind this
period and average on temps especially Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 120 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Message:

1) Daily chances for showers/few storms, but not a complete washout

Models start to diverge later in the period, with how strong/deep a
trough slides across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley into the east.
Latest NBM does seem to be a bit overdone on chances of rain, based
on ensembles, so at the moment will start out with likely pops
Wednesday as low starts to deepen, with another front approaching
from the west and one pushing offshore.

This front to be held up somewhat by the system offshore while the
main upper system tracks into Quebec. Will see temperatures
modifying and running around normal for late May. The upper low
stalls well to our north by Friday while yet another shortwave
diving southeast through the Ohio Valley could bring a better chance
of showers/storms Saturday, though due to ensemble probabilistic of
measurable precip running on the low side, kept pops in the chance
range.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Saturday...

VFR conditions are expected for much of the region through most
of the valid forecast time of the TAFs concluding at 25 May
18Z/2PM Sunday. Late in the period, light rain showers and
some lower ceilings will move into the mountains of northwest
North Carolina, and neighboring sections of southwest Virginia.

Winds will remain generally from the west or northwest today
around 10kts for most locations with gusts around 20kts, more so
in the mountains than the Piedmont region. Around sunset, winds
will quickly trend light and variable or calm and remain that
way overnight and into Sunday morning.

Confidence in this portion of the forecast is high.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Sunday afternoon through Thursday there will be more time
periods with showers and sub-VFR conditions than without. The
period when they will be most likely is Tuesday through
Wednesday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...DS