147
FXUS61 KRNK 041747
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1247 PM EST Tue Nov 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will shift off the southeast coast Wednesday
morning. A dry cold front will move across Wednesday night with
gusty winds accompanying it. High pressure briefly returns
Thursday before another frontal system with more moisture
arrives at the start of the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1230 PM EST Tuesday...

Key Message:

1) Gusty winds Wednesday.

Going to stay dry and seasonal into early Wednesday as high
pressure moves from the GA/SC border this afternoon to offshore
Wednesday. A strong low level jet arrives by Wednesday
afternoon, in the 45-60kt range across the central Appalachians.
This is ahead of a dry front and the flow at the surface will be
west to southwest. Typically higher ridges could see gusts
approaching advisory levels, but core of stronger winds look to
stay further north along the Alleghanys toward MD and eastern
panhandle of WV. Something to watch, but nonetheless expect a
breezy afternoon for most, with gusts ranging from 20-30 mph,
mainly along the foothills/mountains, with some isolated gusts
to 35 mph at the higher elevations of WV and the adjacent VA
highlands. It will be milder than normal ahead of the front and
a fly in the ointment could be some standing wave cirrostratus
some models are picking up on briefly. Still sunshine looks to
hang around longer to send temps into the 60s, with lower 70s in
the Piedmont.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1240 PM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1. Gusty winds continuing through Wednesday night, subsiding by
Thursday morning.

2. Precipitation reaches the west by late Friday, but otherwise dry.

3. Above normal temperatures through the period.

The short term forecast period marks the beginning of a more
progressive synoptic pattern, as several systems look to cross the
area from the midweek time frame into early next week. Please refer
to the long term forecast discussion about the weekend weather.

An expansive area of high pressure will settle over the region
Thursday, following the passage of a cold front Wednesday night.
Although the airmass is considerably dry ahead of the front, there
is a slight chance for showers in western Greenbrier County
overnight Wednesday with some moisture advection from the Great
Lakes. However, probabilities are low, and rainfall totals, if any,
would be very light. A 850mb jet of 45 to 50 knots associated with
the parent upper trough will move through the area by Thursday
morning, and when combined with strong cold air advection, will see
wind gusts between 25 and 35 mph for most areas along and west of
the Blue Ridge lingering into the overnight period. Once the jet
moves east, winds will begin to subside after midnight Thursday, and
will continue to decrease through Thursday.

Another area of high pressure follows quickly on the heels of the
front, and Thursday will be dry and sunny, but cooler than Wednesday
by about 10 degrees areawide, as winds become more northwesterly.
However, this high slides quickly offshore by Friday morning, ahead
of the next approaching frontal system. Winds turn southerly and
then southwesterly as the high pushes off the coast, and with
increased moisture return from the Atlantic and the Gulf, will see
dewpoints trending higher Thursday night through Friday. The front
itself looks to arrive by early Saturday, but could see showers
beginning as early as Friday afternoon for southeast WV and
southwest VA. The heaviest rain looks to come late Friday into
Saturday morning.

Though temperatures will be closer to normal on Thursday, warm air
advection with the warm front lifting north through the region will
bump temperatures up several degrees Friday. Low temperatures
Thursday night will be the coolest of the period, in the 30s
areawide. Wednesday night will see lows in the 30s in the west, and
40s in the east. By Thursday night, however, lows will be in the 40s
in the west and low 50s in the east.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1215 PM EST Tuesday...

Key Points:

1. Mild temperatures with increasing showers Saturday night into
Sunday.
2. Much colder, gusty, with mountain snow showers Sunday night into
Monday.
3. Drier with below normal temperatures for Tuesday.

A look a the NCEP Ensemble Mean 500mb Geopotential Heights
shows for Saturday/Saturday night a closed low centered over
James Bay. Its associated broad longwave trough is expected to
cover much of the eastern CONUS. A shortwave trough may be
embedded within the longer over the western Great Lake region
during the evening hours. Ridging is expected over western
CONUS, and a trough will be over the Gulf of Alaska. For
Sunday/Sunday night, a trough remains over eastern CONUS, with
its axis expected to be over our region during the evening
hours. The trough-ridge pairing to our west shifts a bit farther
eastward. For Monday/Monday night, the trough over our region
shifts northeast, and is expected to be over the Canadian
Maritimes by the evening hours. To our, west, it appears
ensemble averaging washes out the trough-ridge patter, resulting
in a nearly zonal flow across much of western and and central
CONUS. Although, there still are weakly amplified hints of that
trough-ridge pattern from the plain states into the Great Lakes
region. For Tuesday, zonal flow is expected over our region.
Broad troughiness is depicted over the Mississippi Valley, and a
developing trough is noted over the Gulf of Alaska.

At the surface for Saturday/Saturday night, a cold front will cross
the area early (perhaps even before sunrise), with high pressure
behind it over the mid-Mississippi Valley. For Sunday/Sunday night,
the center of high pressure remains to our west with the cold front
now expected to be over the Canadian Maritimes. For Monday/Monday
night, the center of high pressure is expected to become centered
over our region. For Tuesday, the center of the high to moves off
the coast of the Carolinas.

A look at the 4 Nov 00Z NAEFS Ensemble Situational Awareness data
shows 850mb temperatures ranging from +6C to +8C, across the
area on Saturday. For Sunday, values decrease steadily in the
wake of a cold front, reaching +2C to +6C, by the evening
hours. For Monday, temperatures continue their trend downward.
Values by the afternoon are expected to range from -6C to -5C,
across the region. These values are significant as the fall
within the 2.5 to 10 percentile of the 30-year CFSR climatology.
On Tuesday, values start trending milder again, reaching -2C to
0C by the afternoon.

The above weather patterns offers the following forecast. Little in
the way of precipitation associated with the early Saturday cold
frontal passage is expected for the region. However, between the
exiting front, and the approaching high pressure, the pressure
gradient will begin to tighten. We are expecting northwest winds to
start increasing on Saturday with upslope showers over southeast
West Virginia, south into parts of the Northern Mountains of North
Carolina.

For Saturday night into Sunday, our area will remain within a
tightening northwest flow between the departing front, and an
approaching and strengthen area of high pressure. Additionally, the
axis of the front`s parent upper low is expected to cross the
region. In addition to upslope development over the mountains, the
passage of the upper trough will allow for development also into
eastern portions of the region. While confidence is not high, there
may be enough low level shear and decent mid-level lapse rates
across eastern portions of the area for small chance of afternoon
storms. As we progress through Sunday night, we will maintain gusty
northwest winds which will help maintain upslope development across
the mountains. However, this will coincide with much colder air
entering the region. Western and higher elevations of our region
could see not only the first snowflakes of the season, but perhaps
some light accumulations. Ambient relatively warm surface
temperatures would initially limit any accumulations until these same
surfaces cool. Elevated surfaces would initially be more prone to
light accumulations. With this said, confidence is still not high as
timing of the system and amount of available moisture is still in
question.

On Monday, high pressure trends closer to the region, eventually
moving overhead by either late in the day or overnight. Until such
time, we may maintain some weaker upslope flow, but enough to help
maintain some light snow showers/flurries over the mountains. On
Tuesday, we are expecting dry conditions as the northwest flow ends
as winds back southwest as the center of the high shifts east.

Temperatures are expected to be above normal Saturday and Sunday,
but quickly trend to below normal for Monday and Tuesday.


Confidence in the above weather scenario is low to moderate,
especially regarding any specifics on precipitation amount and type.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1240 PM EST Tuesday...

VFR through the period with lighter winds through Wednesday
morning before 13z. Southwest winds start to increase after 15z
Wed so expect some gusts 15-20kts before end of the taf period
18z/05.


.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

A strong low level jet will produce gusty winds ahead of a cold
front Wed afternoon into Wed night. Gusts to 30-35kts likely in
the higher elevations, with ROA/LWB/BCB having the stronger
winds. Winds should be weakening Thursday. A strong system
arrives over the weekend with better rain chances and threat of
sub-VFR cigs/vsbys areawide, especially Fri night and again
Sunday.


&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...DS/VFJ
AVIATION...WP