Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
683 FXUS61 KRNK 061043 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 643 AM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A few showers look to develop west of the Blue Ridge today, but overall not expecting any severe weather as the front has shifted into the Carolinas. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) More possible showers today along and west of the Blue Ridge will give way to dry weather to start the work week, with heat building again towards the middle of this week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: More possible showers today along and west of the Blue Ridge will give way to dry weather to start the work week, with heat building again towards the middle of this week. A backdoor front has well passed the region today, and is currently draped across the Carolinas. This has led to northeast flow across much of the region that looks to continue through Monday. Lingering moisture across the region coupled by mid level shortwave disturbances today will bring shower and thunderstorm chances to areas primarily along and west of the Blue Ridge today. The best chances look to remain along the Blue Ridge where easterly/northeasterly flow will lead to upslope conditions across these areas. Overall, CAM guidance shows this corridor of scattered showers developing through the late morning and early afternoon hours today. In general, there will not be enough instability to develop any strong deep convection today as SBCAPE values look to predominantly remain below 1000 J/Kg. Some gusty winds can`t be ruled out with some of these showers; however, as DCAPE values look to remain in the 800-1000 J/Kg range. By Monday, surface high pressure and subsequently drier air looks to settle further into the Mid-Atlantic states and the Southeast, which will effectively cut off any precipitation chances through the early portion of this week. Temperatures also look to moderate to near normal to slightly above normal values through Tuesday as an upper level trough keeps the upper level ridge over the central Conus to our west through this period. By Wednesday; however, the ridge looks to slide back east, and temperatures look to increase to above normal values once again. Fortunately, current ensemble support keeps headline heat out of the area this week. Another cold front looks to approach the region by the Thursday/Friday timeframe; however, timing of this front is still uncertain. After today`s rainfall, this will be the next best chance for rain across the region. Temperatures look to cool off once again to near to just above normal for this time of the year by next weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Currently a mixture of VFR and MVFR conditions across the area so far this morning, with the exception of LWB currently experiencing LIFR VSBYs. There are also scattered showers moving across the area near BLF and BCB this morning; however, they have so far avoided both of these terminals. These MVFR CIGs that have developed across much of the area are likely to hang around through much of the early morning hours. VSBYs are not expected to drop quite as low as expected at most terminals this morning, with the exception of LWB. These low CIGs causing restrictions through the early morning hours look to lift by the 13-15 UTC timeframe at all terminals. Shortly after these restrictions lift, shower and possibly some thunderstorm activity looks to continue across mountain terminals, with BCB, ROA, BLF, and LWB having the best chances of seeing any brief restrictions from these showers today. Shower activity looks to subside by the 00 UTC Monday timeframe. Winds at around 5-10 knots will predominantly remain out of the east/northeast through the TAF period at all terminals. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Mainly VFR conditions are expected Monday through Wednesday. Another cold front approaches late in the work week, and could bring increased rain chances by Thursday. Overnight river valley fog will be possible each night at LWB through this period. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...EB AVIATION...EB CLIMATE...PM