498
FXUS61 KRNK 221132
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
732 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
As Hurricane Erin pushes eastward away from the Atlantic coast,
high pressure has built across the lower Mid-Atlantic and the
Carolinas, and has brought an influx of slightly drier air on
windflow from the east-northeast. However, deeper moisture will
return on Saturday as winds shift more from the south ahead of
an approaching cold front. This front will pass across the Mid-
Atlantic on Sunday, ushering in cool and dry Canadian high
pressure that will control the weather pattern through much of
the next workweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 730 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Drier today, with isolated showers developing along & west
of the Blue Ridge.

2) Temperatures today slightly below normal for late August.

As Erin continues pushing away from the Atlantic coast, high
pressure has built across the Mid-Atlantic and the Carolinas in
its wake, bringing with it a slightly drier windflow from the
east- northeast. Marine air flowing into our area continues to
support widespread low clouds and pockets of light rain and
drizzle this morning. The latest forecast update reflects this
rain gradually diminishing as temperatures warm through the
morning.

With weak high pressure influencing our weather pattern today,
coverage of showers will be more isolated compared to previous
days, with really no storms expected. Better coverage of showers
will occur along the mountain ridges during the afternoon, but
should fizzle during early evening given the lack of supporting
energy. Otherwise, clouds will linger into late morning and
early afternoon before breaking enough to make for a mix of
clouds and sunshine. Cooler east-northeasterly winds will make
for afternoon highs ranging from 3 to 7 degrees below normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 115 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1) A cold front moves in over the weekend, bringing shower and
storm chances to the area.

2) Near normal temperatures last through the period until the
front clears out Monday.

High pressure centered in the Northeastern US will linger
across the area Saturday, though it shifts east in the
afternoon due to a cold front in the Upper Midwest swinging
down into the Ohio Valley. This high will initially keep dry
weather for Saturday morning, until an inverted trough shifts
into the mountain area, allowing for afternoon showers/storms to
develop west of the Blue Ridge, particularly in the NC/VA
mountains. The Piedmont will likely stay dry. The inverted
trough lingers into Sunday morning, where showers remain
possible through the night west of the Blue Ridge. The main cold
front moves into the area mid to late day Sunday, with the aid
of an upper-level longwave trough. Despite the support, severe
weather is not currently anticipated, but widespread
showers/storms will develop, some of which will be capable of
heavy rain. The eastern Piedmont will see more scattered
coverage, due to downsloping of winds and slightly drier air
aloft.

The front continues through the area Sunday night, clearing
through by Monday morning. Winds shift to the northwest, and
drier air aloft moves in, ending the rain threat area-wide.
Winds increase during the day Monday, with gusts of 15-20+ mph
possible, especially in the higher elevations. High pressure
begins to build in, with pleasant weather expected through the
end of the period.

Rain totals will be fairly light for the Piedmont, generally
under a quarter of an inch. Areas west of the Blue Ridge could
see 0.50- 1.00"+ on average, with locally higher amounts under
any training or slow moving convection. A Marginal Risk of
Excessive Rainfall is forecast for areas west of the Blue Ridge
Sunday with the front moving through, with isolated flash
flooding possible in flood-prone and urban areas.

Temperatures will remain near normal for the weekend into early
next week, thanks to increased cloud cover and rain chances.
Highs will be in the 70s to low 80s each day, and lows will be
in the 60s Sunday morning, before dropping into the 50s/60s
Monday morning behind the front.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 115 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Quiet weather expected through the end of the week.

2) Temperatures will be below normal through the period.

As high pressure continues building into the area Monday night,
quiet and dry conditions are expected to dominate the forecast.
Northwesterly winds remain elevated, with gusts of 10-20 mph
possible, but these do reduce by Tuesday night. Unlike recent
periods of quiet weather, this instance is expected to last
through the entire week, with no rain expected until Friday, as
the high settles in with drier air keeping convection at bay.
Sunny skies will be present each day, and much lower dewpoints
will allow humidity values to significantly drop. It will feel
like early fall, especially with temperatures running around 10
degrees below normal. The high starts out over the Upper
Midwest but slowly moves east over the Mid-Atlantic by the end
of the week. Another system moves in Friday with the chance of
rain returning to the area.

As mentioned, temperatures will remain below normal, with highs
in the 60s to around 70 for the mountains and west of the Blue
Ridge. For the Piedmont, highs will be in the mid to upper 70s
each day. Lows will also be quite chilly, with upper 40s to
around 50 west of the Blue Ridge, and mid 50s for the Piedmont
each morning. The highest elevations could see temperatures in
the low to mid 40s for lows by midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 715 AM EDT Friday...

High pressure remains wedged against the eastern face of the
Appalachians this morning, resulting in a light east-
northeasterly windflow that will persist through much of the
period before veering more east-southeasterly on early Saturday.
This windflow is supporting widespread low MVFR to IFR ceilings
this morning, as well as reduced visibilities due to light
rain/drizzle from near LWB through DAN.

Rain and drizzle will linger through just after 13Z before
diminishing, with low clouds then only gradually lifting through
late morning into early afternoon. Much of the area can expect
ceilings to return to VFR during the 16Z to 18Z timeframe,
though scattered MVFR ceilings will return periodically across
the mountains. Shower activity will be very limited today, and
confined mainly to the mountains. Scattered low ceilings and
areas of fog will return tonight after 23/04Z.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Patchy fog will be possible during early Saturday morning due
to a moist air mass remaining in place. A stronger cold front
will approach this weekend to bring more widespread showers and
thunderstorms. Conditions may turn somewhat breezy by Monday due
to increasing northwest flow behind the cold front. Cooler and
drier conditions should follow into the middle of the week.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...EB/PW