684
FXUS61 KRNK 171728
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
128 PM EDT Sun Aug 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front shifts southward into the mid-Atlantic
this evening, passing into North Carolina by Tuesday night. Another
front arrives Wednesday and linger in the region into Thursday. A
stronger front passes across the area Saturday night into Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 105 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

1. Potential for storms late this afternoon and evening.

2. A cold front tracks south across the area late Monday.

A cold front over the Great Lakes will move across the Ohio
Valley this afternoon and then over the Mid Atlantic states this
evening. With afternoon heating (lower 80s to lower 90s) and
dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s, modest CAPE will help
develop scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Adding in
the fact that there is good diffluence aloft and a surface
trough over the Piedmont, a few storms could become strong to
severe late this afternoon into this evening. SPC has a Marginal
Risk for severe storms later today north of DC. If convection
starts by mid afternoon, we could see strong storms forming
along the trough across central Virginia (Lynchburg area) around
dinner time. Lingering but decaying storms could stay in the
area into the early morning hours Monday.

On Monday, a backdoor front should be sitting in the vicinity
along a line from Lewisburg WV to Lynchburg VA. For this front
to move south during the day, it will need the help of
convection. Once the sunsets, this front should move into North
Carolina Monday night. High temperatures Monday will range from
the low to mid 80s across the mountains to near 90s in the
foothills and Piedmont.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 100 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

1) Storms possible each afternoon, becoming more likely midweek.

2) Temperatures will be around normal through the period.

A mostly zonal pattern will continue across the Eastern US,
with no large systems directly impacting the Mid-Atlantic.
Nonetheless, afternoon rain chances will still be possible along
the Blue Ridge. This is due to a high pressure system over the
Northeastern US, which will wedge down east of the Appalachian
Mountains and cause easterly upslope flow across the area for
Tuesday into Wednesday. A stationary front will also be draped
across the northern fringe of our area, which will enhance lift,
despite drier air aloft. Due to the wedge in place, most
convection will be light showers, with heavy cloud cover
expected each day. Severe weather is not anticipated, thanks to
the wedge keeping the area more stable.

Rain totals will be light across most of the area, generally
under 0.25". The exception to this will be along the Blue Ridge,
where rain will be more frequent due to the upslope flow, with
totals of 0.50-1.00" possible during the period.

Temperatures will be near or even slightly below average each
day, as the wedge keeps highs in the 70s for the mountains, with
low to mid 80s across the Piedmont. Overnight lows will be
consistently in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 100 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

1) Daily chances for scattered afternoon storms.

2) Temperatures stay slightly below normal through the period.

Hurricane Erin will remain well offshore in the Atlantic Ocean,
and will not bring any impacts to the area, but it will alter
the synoptic pattern. The front to our north sags south for
Thursday, as the high over the Northeast moves away with another
high over the Great Lakes taking control which forces the front
south. However, an inverted trough will keep areas along/west
of the Blue Ridge having a chance of afternoon storms through
Friday, with PoPs of 30-50%, with lower chances for the
Piedmont. The front dissipates across the southeast over the
weekend, with another frontal boundary swinging down from the
Great Lakes Region in association with a longwave upper-level
trough. The flow ahead of the front will turn southerly, keeping
moisture levels elevated enough for afternoon storms to be
possible both Saturday and Sunday, as PoPs will be around
40-50%. Drier air moves in late in the day Sunday into early
next week as the front moves through.

Due to the proximity of the fronts and initial upslope wind
directions, cloud cover will keep temperatures below normal,
with highs each day in the 70s to low 80s. Lows will be in the
60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 115 PM EDT Sunday...

VFR conditions expected through much of today. There is a chance for
scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms as a
cold front approaches the area. Not confident to add to 18Z
TAFs, but KLWB and possibly KLYH may have the best chance to see
a storm. Storms fade this evening, but a few may linger past
midnight.

Debris clouds may deter areas of fog overnight, however river fog
may spill into KLWB and KBCB towards sunrise. Fog should burn-off by
14Z Monday.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will redevelop
each afternoon and evening into midweek, more so across the
mountains and foothills, as a cold front stalls somewhere between
the Great Lakes and the Ohio River, providing the focus for this
activity. Patchy fog will redevelop each night, particularly across
the mountain river valleys.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...RCS
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...RCS