743
FXUS61 KRNK 071816
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
216 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure shifts offshore today while a cold front
approaches from the west. Showers will begin this afternoon in
the mountains, and spread southeast tonight into Wednesday.
Noticeably cooler temperatures are expected Thursday through the
weekend. Conditions should remain dry into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Message:

1. Showers of rain will be possible this evening, continuing
into Wednesday morning.

Mostly cloudy skies have overspread the region as a cold front
continues to shift east through the Midwest. Showers associated
with the front are already beginning to move into southwest
Virginia and southeast West Virginia. However rain activity
will remain spotty through the remainder of this afternoon and
evening with perhaps a slight uptick overnight. Trends in model
guidance have been showing the bulk of the rainfall moving
north and west of the area coinciding with the better forcing
associated with the upper tough. In response to this, have
lowered storm total rainfall amounts a little, as well as PoPs
through this evening. Very low confidence of any thunderstorms
with little to no instability. Opted to not add mention of
thunder.

Cold front will be in the process of crossing the area Wednesday
morning and should be situated along the coastline will east of
the area by Wednesday evening. Some lingering showers will be
possible through midday Wednesday, but gradual clearing
throughout Wednesday can be expected. High pressure will begin
building in late Wednesday and a notable change in airmasses
will arrive. Temperatures today will be above normal with mild
overnight lows. Warm again Wednesday, especially east of the
mountains, but a sudden drop in dew points by the evening will
have conditions feeling more fall-like.



&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1) Cold front to bring colder and drier air.

2) Frost possible west of the Blue Ridge Friday morning.

A cold front should be fully through the area by Thursday morning,
followed by considerably colder and drier air. A large high pressure
system centered over the Great Lakes will move eastward into the New
England region and then the Atlantic by this weekend. As it moves
east, it will wedge itself considerably into the mountains and cause
a change in wind direction from northerly to easterly/northeasterly.
A pressure gradient will form with this wedge and bring winds up
with gusts between 10-15 mph for parts of the latter half of this
week. While high temperatures will generally be in the 60s, Friday
morning will have the coldest morning temperatures. On this morning,
temperatures will be in the mid-30s along and west of the Blue Ridge
and in the lower 40s east of the Blue Ridge. With mostly clear skies
expected with this high pressure, this begs the question: will there
be frost? Current answer leans on "yes" but its spatial coverage
will be heavily dependent on the behavior of the winds. Patchy frost
will be possible along and west of the Blue Ridge, where it will be
the coldest, but winds may be just subtly strong enough to prevent
any widespread frost. Temperatures aloft are also forecast to be
relatively warmer in the upper 30s to mid-40s so mixing could put a
dagger in frost development. As the wind estimates are narrowed
down, confidence on frost and any potential Frost Advisories will be
assessed.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Message:

1) Coastal low brings questionable weather pattern next week.

A 500mb shortwave in the Deep South will move into the Atlantic and
interact with a cold front to form a coastal low. While model
guidance is in strong agreement with the formation of this low,
models disagree on its movement. Uncertainties of how the upper
level flow will influence the trajectory of this low plague most of
this forecast period. The coastal low could go into the mainland,
move along the coast, or stay out into the ocean and each of these
scenarios have different impacts on precipitation chances,
cloud cover, and wind speed for the region. This will be closely
monitored for any potential impacts to the area, but at the
moment most likely scenario points towards mostly dry conditions.



&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Tuesday...

Clouds and moisture are increasing this afternoon, resulting in
gradually lowering cigs across the mountains. MVFR is noted
across the highest elevations from TNB to HLX and this trend is
expected to continue for other terminals across the mountains
through the evening and overnight. Showers should remain rather
spotty, thus low vsby not as a big of a concern. Fog development also
appears to be limited owing to cloud cover and continued mixing
through the overnight hours.

Cold front will cross through the region Wednesday morning and a
wind shift will occur as the front moves through. Winds ahead of
the front generally out of the southwest, but should then
transitions to the northwest late Wednesday morning. Sustained
winds around 10kts behind the front, with perhaps a few stronger
gusts nearing 20kts at the highest elevations.

Lingering sub-VFR possible the late in the valid 24 hr TAF
period, but conditions begin to improve as drier air works into
the region behind the front.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Extended period of dry weather becoming more likely. This will
result in widespread VFR. With a drier airmass arriving, fog
development should become less of a concern.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...BMG