376
FXUS61 KRNK 261038
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
638 AM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A prolonged period of heat and humidity is expected through the
middle of next week. Storm chances will also increase with a
return of hit and miss afternoon and evening thundershowers.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 105 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Message:

1) Heat Advisory for the piedmont Saturday afternoon.

2) Chance for afternoon and evening thundershowers.

Overall not much change in the pattern. An upper ridge will stay
positioned over the Carolinas into the southeast. A frontal
boundary lingers across northern VA into the Tidewater. Leaned
against the higher pops of the NBM based on the upper pattern
but still scattered coverage for storms progged over the
mountains starting around midday/early afternoon but may not see
as much coverage til later in the afternoon/evening as cap
weakens. Cannot rule out an isolated strong storm but the big
news will continue to be the heat.

Heat indices will surge to around 105 in the Piedmont where heat
advisory exists. Locations like Roanoke/Martinsville/Lexington
may see heat indices around 100, with 90s in the mountains.

Going with highs a degree or two higher than Friday with mid 90s
east to mid 80s to around 90 west.

Storms will fade by midnight but could linger toward the I-64
corridor closer to the front and better upper support into early
overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 150 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

1) Hot trend continues.

2) Daily thunderstorm weather pattern.

A large upper level ridge will continue to move westward into
central CONUS, providing more northerly winds aloft. Shortwaves and
vorticity will pass through the Mid-Atlantic as a result, and assist
with the initiation of thunderstorms.

The ridge will still provide 500mb heights of 590+ dm and continue a
heat wave over most of eastern part of the United States. High
temperatures for early next week are expected to be in the mid-80s
to mid-90s with the hottest temperatures along and east of the Blue
Ridge. Dew points will be in the 60s and 70s, resulting in a wide
range of heat index values between 90-110. The highest and most
dangerous heat index values are likely to be east of the Blue Ridge,
in particular in the counties of Buckingham, Appomattox, Charlotte,
and Halifax.

A stationary front over the Mid-Atlantic will meander about due to
localized pressure systems competing for space on the east
coast. The specific location of this front will influence the
location of storm development in addition to the shortwaves that
are projected to go through. Combined with plenty of daytime
heating and moisture, a weather pattern of daily showers and
thunderstorms return for the region. Currently, severe and flash
flood threats are very low for early next week but PWATs of
1.75-2.25" will allow these storms to produce torrential
rainfall, and MLCAPE around 3000 J/kg will support a threat for
isolated damaging wind, especially along and northeast of a
Lewisburg WV to Lynchburg VA line Sunday afternoon/evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 150 AM EDT Saturday...

1) Hot conditions continue along with storm chances.

2) Possible break in heat wave towards end of next week.

The heat wave will continue for most of next week with high
temperatures in the mid-80s to mid-90s. With dew points remaining in
the mid-60s to mid-70s, maximum heat index values will range between
90-105 degrees. The upper level ridge will continue to move west and
break apart, leading to more zonal winds aloft. Shortwaves are still
projected to pass through providing daily chances of afternoon
showers and thunderstorms.

There is a chance for a break in the heat thanks to a cold front
traveling with an upper level trough passing eastward through
Canada. This trough is projected to dip into New England late next
week and pass a cold front through the Mid-Atlantic, bringing in
cooler and drier air behind it. Specifics on changes to temperatures
and moisture will be determined when we enter into next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 637 AM EDT Saturday...

Overall VFR conditions are expected through the 24 hour taf
period ending at 12z/Sunday. LIFR fog at LWB erodes by 14z and
will again be possible late tonight. A few storms this
afternoon/evening but best overall coverage will be in the
mountains but still scattered. Added VCTS to BLF/LWB/BCB/ROA.
Any storm could bring sub-VFR conditions and gusty winds.

OUTLOOK...

Anticipating mainly VFR through next week outside any late
night/early morning fog and scattered thunderstorms. Flight
hazards from thunderstorms will primarily be limited to the peak
heating part of the day and early evening 18Z-01Z time.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
     VAZ044>047-058-059.
NC...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
     NCZ005-006.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PM/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...PM/VFJ/WP