Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
447 FXUS61 KRNK 231724 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 124 PM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation forecast updated. No major changes to the forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Drier and cooler today. 2) Cooler than normal temperatures continue through the weekend, with shower and storm chances returning to the area tomorrow through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Drier and cooler today. The cold front that brought widespread rain to the area yesterday has now stalled across the Carolinas, and looks to remain over that region through the weekend. Drier air is working its way into the local area, as dewpoints have been slowly falling into the low 60s to upper 50s in some locations. East to northeasterly flow is bringing in some moisture from the coastal Mid Atlantic, so it will stay partly to mostly cloudy for most of the day, until some more breaks in the cloud cover can bring some sun. However, not enough sun to help temperatures significantly increase. Highs this afternoon will be in the 60s to low 70s, which is about 5 to 10 degrees below normal in the mountains, and 10 to 20 degrees below normal in the Piedmont. Most of the shower activity has shifted farther south into central NC, and so not confident in redevelopment by this afternoon, but cannot rule out a few stray showers later today over the mountains and along the VA/NC border. KEY MESSAGE 2... Cooler than normal temperatures continue through the weekend, with shower and storm chances returning to the area tomorrow into early next week. A surface high over the northern Mid Atlantic and New England will keep northeast to easterly low level winds advecting some cooler air into the area, and so expecting these below normal temperatures through the weekend. Temperatures will start to slowly increase after Sunday, as a more typical summertime pattern resumes over the US, with broad upper troughing persisting in the east and a 500mb ridge building across the Mountain West. Some moisture will move back into the area from via return flow around the high and pooling along the front stalled across the southeastern US, while a couple shortwaves drop into the area in the broad northwesterly flow aloft. This will combine to bring shower and thunderstorm chances back into the forecast tomorrow, and lingering through the weekend. At this time, the probability for any severe thunderstorms is low, until early next week, when a stronger shortwave and surface cold front look to arrive from the Midwest. Confidence in timing is low, given differences among deterministic guidance, and the GEFS ML severe probability has low probability, between 15% and 30%, Sunday through Tuesday, so difficult to pinpoint the day with the highest severe potential at this time. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Ceilings have been hovering between low end VFR and MVFR, with a few spots in higher elevations where ceilings are below 1kft. Most lingering fog has since dissipated, but some spotty DZ and BR have resulted in minor vsby reductions along the NC mountains. Skies overall today will be BKN to OVC mainly across southern VA and northern NC, nearer to a stalled front over the Carolinas, and SCT to BKN elsewhere. This trend will continue for most of the day, with perhaps a bit more clearing of the stratus layer for southeast WV and parts of west and central VA by later this afternoon and evening. Given the proximity of the front and moisture along it, and some cooling overnight, ceilings will once again lower to MVFR to IFR range, possibly below that, after 06Z Friday through most of the morning hours. Cannot rule out a few isolated showers during the overnight and early morning, but confidence is not high enough to include in the TAFs at this time. Winds will be mostly northeast to easterly through today, and 10 knots or less, with the occasional gust between 15 and 20 knots in the afternoon. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Chances for afternoon showers and possible storms increase Friday and continue through the weekend, but coverage will be isolated to scattered. Outside of showers/storms, and overnight/morning fog, conditions should be generally VFR. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AS AVIATION...AS