779
FXUS61 KRNK 092342
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
742 PM EDT Wed Apr 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the Mid-Atlantic region will move off the
coast tonight. This will be followed by an area of low pressure
that will set-up over the region, and remain nearly stationary
for the next several days bringing widespread cloud cover, and
the opportunity for rain, beginning Thursday and persisting
into early Saturday. Temperatures will also remain cooler than
normal through the upcoming weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 735 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key messages:

1) Clear early tonight then increasing clouds.

2) Cloudy Thursday with showers overspreading the area.

Minor changes to the forecast this evening to account for
increasing dew points across NW NC. A mid level deck of clouds
was spreading in from the NW associated with an elevated warm
front. Low level moisture creep and increasing vorticity aloft
ahead of a short wave will bring increasing cloud cover through
the night and into Thursday. Models have slowed down lower
cloud decks and rain as it will take a little longer for the
increasing moisture to make an impact on our dry atmosphere.

We should see rain really blossom after mid morning tomorrow and
spread across the area through the afternoon.



As of 230 PM EDT Wednesday...

High pressure resides over the Mid-Atlantic but will gradually
lose its grip over the next 24 hours as an upper level trough
deepens over the eastern CONUS. Pressure falls will bring
unsettled weather to the region as low pressure becomes
established and then sticks around for a few days. This the
time of year for cut-off lows.

Expectation is for skies to start off clear tonight allowing
temperatures to tumble quickly per good radiational cooling
conditions. This should come to a grinding halt toward midnight
or shortly thereafter as clouds increase ahead of first in a
series of shortwaves that will carve out the aforementioned
parent trough. Clouds should mitigate any frost/freeze threat
with lows tonight dipping into 30s, then remaining steady or
even rise a few degrees with the cloud cover.

Clouds may produce a few sprinkles of rain for our VA/WV
bordering counties late tonight with a more bonafide
opportunity for showers across the area during the day Thursday
as the cloud layers begin to saturate from top down. It may take
until late afternoon or evening before anything measurable
reaches the piedmont. Temperatures Thursday will be tempered by
the cloud cover with highs ranging from the 40s/50s in the
mountains to the 50s/L60s in the piedmont.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) On and off showers through the end of the workweek

An upper level trough will deepen and become a cutoff low around
the OH River Valley on Friday. The cutoff low will then proceed
to meander in this position for much of the weekend, only making
very slow progress from west to east. The trough axis will move
just east of us late on Saturday. While in the vicinity of this
upper low, we can expect showers and rain for more or less the
entire period. There is high confidence that rain continues for
much of Saturday. Friday night could get cold enough that snow
mixes in with the rain at our highest elevation locales in the
mountains out west, but only briefly. Do not expect impactful
accumulation from any snow this week.

Temperatures will be mild, and below normal for mid-April. Highs
will be in the 50s and low 60s, with lows in the 30s and low
40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Warmer temperatures return next week

The upper low mentioned in the short term portion of this
forecast discussion will begin its exit in earnest very late
Saturday and early Sunday. Behind it, a substantial ridge and
high pressure will quiet weather down for Sunday evening and
Monday. Another front is expected to pass through the region on
Tuesday, but the distance from the driving low to which it is
attached is quite large, with the low mostly remaining in
Canada. A glancing blow of upslope showers is the most likely
scenario on Tuesday. Wednesday will return to quiet conditions.

Temperatures will rise significantly during this period, going
back above normal for Sunday and Monday, while Tuesday`s front
ought to regulate temperatures to around normal.

High pressure and ridging in the wake of the trough will quiet
our weather down for Sunday and Monday. In addition,
temperatures will moderate warmer over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 730 PM EDT Wednesday...

VFR conditions areawide through 8AM/12Z Thursday, and perhaps as
late as 16-18Z locally. Low level moisture creep and increasing
vorticity aloft ahead of a short wave will bring increasing
mid and high cloud cover through the night and into Thursday.
Models have slowed down MVFR and IFR cloud progression tomorrow,
as it will take a little longer for the increasing moisture to
make an impact on our dry atmosphere. Lower ceilings look most
likely tomorrow afternoon and lasting through the 24 hour valid
TAF.

Rain will also begin to overspread the region from the
west...vsbys also lowering into MVFR category across the
mountains for Thursday. Main area of rain will pass through
between 15Z near BLF and moves southeast of DAN by 00Z.

Above average confidence in ceiling, wind, and visibility
Average confidence in timing of the precipitation Thursday.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Periods of rain will be possible overnight tomorrow night and
through Friday night as an upper low spins overhead. The
placement of these showers are hard to pinpoint, but ceilings
will be MVFR to IFR, with occasional MVFR visibility through
Friday night.

This low may clear out of the area on Saturday, with a lower
chance of precipitation only in the mountains, but models may
trend slower with the drying, so confidence is lower for the
Saturday and Sunday forecast. Once the low does move off the
East Coast flight conditions will improve.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM/SH
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...VFJ
AVIATION...PM/SH