Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
592 FXUS61 KRNK 102319 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 719 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Potential for isolated to scattered strong/severe storms across the Tazewell WV to Surry NC southwestward overnight. Best chances for more organized storms Tuesday and Wednesday. Aviation updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Unsettled weather will persist throughout this week with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Unsettled weather will persist throughout this week with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms. Outflow boundary from this afternoon`s storms has stalled from Charleston WV (KCRW) to Bluefield WV (KBLF) to Mount Airy NC (KMWK) this evening. Watching for storms to form and track along this boundary tonight. Estimated time for storms to enter our far western counties would be between 11P and 1A. Upper pattern keeps a trough from the mid-Atlantic north into the Canada, with ridge set up from Texas to the southeast coast. Several embedded vorts, some convective induced will track from the Ohio Valley/Midwest into our area for the next couple of days. Strong to severe storms possible Tuesday with good shear, but limiting factor could be morning convection and upper clouds that may limit sunshine. Still any sunshine will lead to SBCAPEs in the 1000-2000 J/kg range, and seems enough to overall keep pops higher over WV per model trends. Temps/dewpoints were lowered from NBM Tuesday with downsloping and cloud cover. Although convective activity diminishes a little in intensity and coverage towards the end of this week, sufficient instability and orographical lift will ensure that storm chances linger throughout the upcoming weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR for most of the period. Watching a storm northeast of KCRW as it tracks southeastward and could impact KBLF in the 05-06z time frame. For now have VCTS at KBLF, with less confidence elsewhere, but amendments likely if it holds together per one model solution. Upstream convection may provide enough clouds at the higher levels to fend off low stratus/fog. Less pessimistic for terminals at KLWB for fog but kept MVFR there in the 9-12z time frame. No METARs for KBLF due to a power outage in the area. AMD NOT SKED. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Shower and thunderstorm coverage should increase during Tuesday and Wednesday as a cold front passes to the north. Sub-VFR ceilings are possible along with gusty winds and heavy rainfall in any of the stronger storms. Overnight and early morning fog may occur in the mountains, especially where any rainfall occurs from the aforementioned showers and thunderstorms. Although convection may become less intense and more scattered by Thursday and Friday, little change in the overall weather pattern is expected with daily chances of storms each afternoon. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...WP AVIATION...RCS