830
FXUS61 KRNK 070101
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
901 PM EDT Tue May 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over the Ohio Valley will move northeast through
Pennsylvania and into southern New England tonight. For the
central and southern Mid Atlantic, high pressure will build into
the area from the west, promoting dry weather for Wednesday. A
cold front dropping south from the Great Lakes will bring our
next opportunity for showers and thunderstorms Thursday and
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 900 PM EDT Tuesday...

No major changes were made to the forecast this evening as it
appears to remain on track. Expect a cool night again as
clearing skies and calm winds will allow for efficient
radiational cooling tonight.

Previous Discussion:

Key Messages:

1) Few clouds and isolated showers this afternoon.

2) Dry high pressure returns for Wednesday.

Upper low continue to slowly drift north into southern Canada
this afternoon. Backside flow around the low has shifted our
wind from the west and as a result, less rainfall coverage is
expected. However, still quite a bit of cloud cover remaining
across the mountains, along with a few embedded showers.

Should begin to see clouds dissipate this evening and especially
overnight as weak high pressure builds into the region. This
should allow for a mostly clear and chilly overnight with lows
into the 40s. A few mountain valley locations could even drop
into the upper 30s for a few hours before daybreak.

Dry weather for Wednesday with high pressure remaining in
control. High clouds filtering into the region from the west,
with light winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1) Next good chance of rain will be Thursday afternoon through
midday Friday.

2) Slightly above average temperatures fall to below average behind
the front Friday.

A cold front stretching from the Northeast down through the Ohio
River Valley will move south through the day Thursday in association
with a longwave upper-level trough. With the RNK CWA being south of
the front, daytime heating will instigate scattered showers and
storms Thursday afternoon lasting into the evening with PoPs around
40-60%. The front swings through overnight into Friday morning, but
a surface low will develop along the front and move northeast back
through the area on Friday. The exact location of the low is still
uncertain, with models continuing to differ on both timing and
location of the low and associated rainfall. Rain clears mostly out
of the area by late Friday afternoon. Any convection during the
period remains light, with forecast rain totals mostly staying under
0.10", though a slight trend upwards has occurred since yesterday,
mostly in coverage of QPF. The GFS and ECMWF model ensembles show
higher amounts of around 0.25", but this is likely too high, as
convection will be scattered. Isolated areas under the heaviest
showers/storms could see these higher amount, but most areas will
see significantly less.

High temperatures will remain slightly above average on Thursday,
with highs in the 70s/80s. Cooler temperatures will be behind the
front Friday, with highs in the low 60s to low 70s. Low temperatures
will also lower through the period, with 40s/50s for Thursday and
Friday morning, dropping into the low to mid 40s area-wide for
Saturday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1) Mostly quiet weather returns for the weekend, with rain chances
returning early next week.

2) Temperatures remain near to just below normal through the period.

High pressure builds in across the area Saturday as the low pressure
system exits the area. Drier weather is expected for the weekend as
the frontal boundary remains south of the area. Models again differ
on how far south the front will stall, with the GFS keeping rainfall
chances through the weekend south of the NC/VA state line. PoPs are
kept low, around 20% to account for this. A cutoff low pressure
system in the Southern US near the Gulf Coast will begin to drift
north and into our area beginning Sunday night into Monday morning.
Rain chances return Monday morning and continue through the end of
the period, with higher chances on Tuesday. Most convection will be
during the afternoon hours due to daytime heating.

Temperatures will be below normal on Saturday behind the frontal
boundary, with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s, with the highest
elevations remaining in the 50s. A slight warmup brings temperatures
to around normal for the rest of the period, with highs in the upper
60s to mid 70s, and lows in the 40s/50s.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 700 PM EDT Tuesday...

VFR conditions are expected at all terminals through the TAF
period, with brief periods of MVFR CIGs developing at LWB during
the late night and early morning period. Confidence was not high
enough at this time to include in a taf line at this time, as
several CAMs do not show these restrictions developing.

Winds look to predominantly remain westerly/southwesterly, with
developing northwesterly winds through the later afternoon and
evening on Wednesday. Winds do look to remain light at around
5-10 knots or less through the taf period.

Overall, there are no other restrictions expected through the
taf period, and confidence remains high in wind speed and
direction.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

VFR continues into Wednesday night.

Thursday a low pressure system tracking across the southeast
United States will combine with a cold front dropping south from
the Great Lakes to result in scattered showers over the Mid
Atlantic region. Some MVFR flight conditions are possible with
this precipitation into Friday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG/EB
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...BMG/EB