117
FXUS61 KRNK 051030
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
630 AM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will keep the weather mainly dry today, though
cannot rule out an isolated storm in the North Carolina
mountains. A tropical system will move onshore in South Carolina
by Sunday pushing showers and a few storms toward the Blue Ridge
and Piedmont. This system weakens early next week but combined
with increasing moisture and a front to the north will keep
shower and thunderstorm chances around.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 620 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Message:

1. A mostly dry Saturday with near seasonal temperatures.

Some river valley fog this morning will erode by 9am.

Expecting tranquil weather today into tonight. Some patchy
clouds and fog this morning will give way to sunshine. Watching
tropical depression 3 off the southeast coast. Overall no
impacts this period, but some convective allowing models show
some upper support moving across the mountains this afternoon
and with some heating and low level moisture could bring some
isolated showers/storms. Overall coverage is less than 15
percent so keeping dry for most, but don`t be surprised to see
one or two showers/storms pop up in the afternoon between Boone,
NC and Marion, VA.

Highs today will be in the 80s.

Tonight, models start pushing mid and high clouds our way toward
the piedmont late from the tropical system, but no precip. Lows
still running close to normal in the upper 50s to lower 60s
mountains to mid 60s east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 230 AM EDT SATURDAY...

Key Messages:

1) Tropical Depression approaches, bringing chances for rain


Tropical Depression Three, currently off the GA/SC coast, will make
its way northward over the weekend, potentially strengthening enough
to become the third named Tropical Cyclone of the year, Chantal. Our
CWA remains west of the forecast track, but the influx of plenty of
tropical moisture to the east coast will allow for rain to form
starting Sunday evening, with best chances in the Piedmont. As the
tropical system moves closer, it will also weaken due to crossing
over land. As mentioned above, the favored track for this storm is
east of us, so there is little expectation of strong winds. By
Tuesday, its likely that this tropical disturbance will be back off
the VA coast.

Dewpoints will rise as well, thanks to the Tropical Depression. They
will reach into the 60s and low 70s, but temperatures are unlikely
to be high enough to warrant any heat headlines along with the
humidity.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 AM EDT SATURDAY...

Key Messages:

1) Showers continue off and on next week

After the exit of the tropical system on Tuesday, a frontal boundary
is progged to stall out just to our north near the Delmarva and WV
panhandle. This will serve as a focal point along which upper level
disturbances will travel. With upper level support from waves and a
stationary front in the vicinity, we can expect almost daily growth
of showers and storms. Diurnal heating will only add to the
instability, but PWATs above the climatological norm will only make
it easier for showers to drop precipitation. There is potential for
severe weather and localized hydro concerns, but this far out in the
forecast leaves a lot of room for uncertainty.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 620 AM EDT Saturday...

Overall, VFR conditions will prevail for all TAF sites through the
current TAF period, ending at 12Z Sunday. Aside for some
scattered clouds not much to speak of with respect to cloud
cover. Winds through the period are expected to remain light,
less than 10 kts. Fog at BCB should be gone by 12z with IFR/LIFR
fog at LWB eroding by 13z.

A little bit of fog again possible late tonight after 09z at LWB
with IFR vsbys.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

VFR conditions are expected outside of morning valley fog
through mid next week. May see some isolated to scattered
storms Sunday into Monday with chances increasing into the
middle of next week. Moisture from TD Three is expected to
remain south and east of the forecast area, but may tease KDAN
late Sunday into Monday. Periods of heavy rain are expected
along the coast, mainly east of I-95. Storm chances increase
midweek with a front to our north.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...VFJ
AVIATION...PM/WP