446
FXUS61 KRNK 091231
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
731 AM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak disturbance will bring scattered rain showers to the
Piedmont this morning. A strong cold front will cross the
mountains during the afternoon and evening, bringing additional
showers. Behind the front, temperatures will turn drastically
colder for tonight and Monday in addition to blustery northwest
winds and mountain snow showers. Winter weather advisories for
accumulating snow have been issued from the mountains of North
Carolina, northward into the mountains of far western Virginia
and West Virginia. Winter storm warnings have been issued for
some of the highest elevations where snowfall through Monday
night could total 3 to 6 inches. Snow flurries may drift across
the Blue Ridge and into the Piedmont Monday and Monday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 400 AM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

1) Mild temperatures today with scattered rain showers.

2) A frigid airmass arrives tonight with mountain snow showers.

A dramatic pattern change is imminent for the central
Appalachians as an unseasonably mild airmass is aggressively
scoured-out by a potent polar cold front tonight. This front is
associated with a deepening upper-level trough digging into the
eastern United States.

Ahead of the front today, strong southerly flow will promote
well-above-average temperatures with widespread highs in the 60s
and even low 70s for the Piedmont. Showers ongoing east of the
Blue Ridge this morning are associated with an upper level
disturbance which should clear the area later this morning.
Additional shower activity is expected with the arrival of the
cold front later this afternoon. Can`t rule out a rumble of
thunder for the piedmont where temperatures in the 70s will
support greater instability.

The big transition with respect to temperature and precipitation
type begins this evening and overnight as the cold front sweeps
west to east across the mountains. This will initiate a rapid
transition from rain to snow, usher in the coldest air of the
season, and produce strong, gusty northwest winds. The most
significant impacts tonight will be focused on the highest
elevations of our western CWA from western Greenbrier County,
WV, southward through Mercer/Bluefield, Tazewell to Mount Rogers
in western Grayson, and into the NC High Country. Temperatures
will quickly drop into the 20s by midnight with strong west
winds funneling moisture into the western slopes and creating a
hodge-podge of precipitation types. Initially, think it will be
in the form of freezing drizzle or rime ice, then transition to
snow. Not overly concerned with snow accumulation tonight,
think that will come later Monday and Monday night when the
upper trough passes overhead, but do think the quick drop in
temperature early tonight will favor a coating of ice and snow
for the overnight with impacts to the morning commute Monday. As
such, have started the winter weather headlines a little early,
7PM, so that folks will have time to prepare.

Model ensembles suggest freezing temperatures will develop
within the 7PM-10PM time frame with greater than a 50% chance
that elevations above 3500 feet elevation will be at or below
freezing by 10 PM, and close to 100% chance by 1AM. Areas above
3500 feet in elevation should have about 1 inch of snow by
daybreak Monday. Probability for an inch of snow by 7AM Monday
is running at about 60% for these elevations...and close to 90%
for western Greenbrier.

Additional snow and much colder temperatures will occur Monday
and Monday night.

Confidence in this forecast is moderate high.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

1) Winter Storm Warning for Western Greenbrier; Winter Weather
Advisories for the NC/VA/WV mountains through Tuesday morning.

2) Very cold temperatures for the early week, moderating by
Wednesday.

By Monday morning, a cold front will be off to our east, and CAA
will be prominent across the area. High temperatures for the day
will likely occur just after midnight, with cooling temperatures
throughout most of the day. Strong northwesterly flow behind the
front will cause upslope snow showers to form on the western facing
mountains and continue through the day Monday. While snow showers
will be confined to western facing slopes Monday, flurries will be
possible as far east as the Blue Ridge. NW winds will be 15-20 mph
with gusts up to 30 mph at times. During the day Monday, an upper
level low will dive down from the Great Lakes and into the southern
Mid-Atlantic. This will cause very cold air to be aloft, along with
adding additional lift and moisture to the area heading into Monday
night.

As the upper-low moves across the area Monday night, upslope snow
showers will continue to form and will be possible anywhere west of
the Blue Ridge. Flurries could extend briefly into the Piedmont, but
confidence in anything occurring east of the Blue Ridge is very low.
However, scattered snow showers will be expected along/west of the
Blue Ridge as the trough axis swings through. This will be the best
chance of seeing snow along the I-81 corridor. Due to the colder air
across the area, any snow that falls will immediately stick to any
untreated roads, which could lead to a sketchy Tuesday morning
commute as snow showers will continue through Monday night. By
midday Tuesday, the trough pushes east, with snow showers tapering
off across the area, aside from Western Greenbrier County, which
will see a few light upslope snow showers until mid afternoon. Winds
continue to remain strong from the northwest, gusting to 35+ mph in
the mountains. By late Tuesday, gusts do reduce to around 15-25 mph
area-wide.

Total snow accumulations will be varied based on location and
elevation. The NC/VA mountains will generally see up to an inch,
with areas over 3500 feet seeing 2-3". West Virginia will have more
chances of upslope snow, generally seeing 1-2", aside from Western
Greenbrier County, which is expected to receive around 4-6". Due to
these totals, a Winter Storm Warning has been issued for Western
Greenbrier, while a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for
Tazewell, Smyth, Grayson, Ashe, Watauga, Summers, and Mercer
Counties, all through 7am Tuesday.

High pressure over the Southeastern US then builds into the area
Tuesday night into Wednesday, with winds shifting to the southwest
ahead of a dry cold front. A shortwave trough will be just north of
the area, which will continue to keep a pressure gradient in place
over the Mid-Atlantic. This keeps winds elevated, with some of the
ridgetops Wednesday morning briefly having gusts over 40 mph. Winds
then turn westerly in the late afternoon, with gusts reducing
slightly to 20-30 mph.

Monday and Tuesday will see the coldest air of the season so far,
with highs only in the 20s/30s west of the Blue Ridge both days,
while 40s will be in the Piedmont. Wednesday will see temperatures
quickly return to near normal due to the southwesterly flow, with
highs in the 40s/50s in the mountains and in the low 60s across the
Piedmont. Overnight lows will be very cold Tuesday morning, in the
teens/20s. Combined with strong winds, the wind chill values will be
in the single digits west of the Blue Ridge, with teens for the
Piedmont. The highest elevations could see wind chill values just
below zero. Lows moderate for Wednesday morning, in the 20s/30s area-
wide.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 AM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

1) Quiet weather through the end of the period.

2) Near normal temperatures midweek rise to above normal for the
late week.

A cold front will push through the area Wednesday night, though it
will be a dry front with no rain chances as moisture will be
extremely limited. A high pressure system will then build in from
the west for Thursday. A lingering pressure gradient will cause
winds to remain elevated Wednesday night into Thursday as the front
passes, with westerly winds shifting to the northwest at 10-15 mph.
Gusts across the Piedmont will be 10-20 mph, and west of the Blue
Ridge will see gusts of 20-30+ mph. The trough to our northeast
moves away and a more zonal pattern with upper ridging then moves
over our area late Thursday into Friday, keeping dry weather in
place and reducing winds. A stray upslope rain shower cannot be
ruled out in WV Friday, but confidence in this is low, with PoPs of
less than 20%. High pressure continues to be the dominant feature
heading into the weekend, with pleasant conditions expected.

Temperatures will be near normal late week and into next weekend,
with highs in the 50s/60s, though the highest elevations will remain
in the upper 40s. Overnight lows will be generally in the
30s/40s.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 400 AM EST Sunday...

A significant pattern change will create rapidly deteriorating
flight conditions across the central Appalachians tonight.

For today, the region remains in the warm sector of a developing
low-pressure system, characterized by unseasonably mild
temperatures. Near calm winds this morning will become gusty out
of the south and southwest this afternoon. There will be some
scattered showers within this warm sector and the possibility
for an isolated thunderstorm or two.

The main hazard arrives this evening and overnight as a strong
polar cold front sweeps west to east, crossing the mountains
between 20-23Z, then across the piedmont between 00Z-03Z. This
front will cause an abrupt wind shift to the northwest and will
introduce an Polar airmass, resulting in a rapid drop in
temperature, any precipitation transitioning from rain to snow.
We think most of the snow will be mainly confined to areas west
of the Blue Ridge and any accumulating snow confined to the
western slopes of WV vcnty of BLF/LWB and into the NC High
Country, vcnty of TNB.

Pilots should anticipate widespread IFR/LIFR over and just west
of the Appalachian divide tonight, significant low-level
turbulence, and a high potential for light to moderate icing.
Model soundings indicate subfreezing temperatures developing
near the surface between 00Z-03Z vcnty of BLF and LWB.

East of the Blue Ridge, the northwest downslope winds will scour
the low level cloud cover, cloud bases mainly VFR for
ROA/LYH/DAN. However, the wind and turbulence will still be a
hazard, especially close to ROA and the Blue Ridge.

Confidence in this forecast is moderate to high.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Wind gusts will persist through Wednesday and reach up to 25-35
kts at times. Wintry weather is likely for the mountains
through early Tuesday with potential for accumulating snow along
the Appalachian Divide. Flurries may be seen into areas east of
the Blue Ridge Monday afternoon and Monday night.

By the middle of the week, higher pressure moves in and skies
should clear. Above seasonal temperatures return for the end of
the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 100 PM EST Saturday...

Key Message:

1) Enhanced fire danger concerns may return for the latter half
of next week.

After the big cool down on Monday/Tuesday, conditions begin to
moderate in terms of temperatures through the end of the work
week. This will be occurring while we maintain some element of a
westerly, eventually northwesterly, wind which will frequently
have daytime gusts close to 20 to 30 mph in the mountains and 15
mph to 20 mph across the Piedmont. Lowering daily minimum RH
values, and subsidence in the east, thanks to the wind
orientation, will help for drying of fuels. These same fuels are
the ones which received generally less then one-quarter of an
inch last night, and for Sunday into Monday are expecting little
to no precipitation. We are still too early for high confidence
in an enhanced fire danger scenario, but with little to no
additional precipitation after last night`s minimal amounts, its
potential has increased, and we will continue monitoring.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST
     Tuesday for VAZ007-009-015.
NC...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST
     Tuesday for NCZ001-018.
WV...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST
     Tuesday for WVZ042-043.
     Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST
     Tuesday for WVZ508.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...PM
FIRE WEATHER...DS