113
FXUS61 KRNK 142346
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
Issued by National Weather Service Raleigh NC
746 PM EDT Wed May 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weakening low pressure system over the northern Mid-Atlantic
will continue to provide clouds, scattered showers, and a few
thunderstorms across our area through Thursday.
A marginal risk for severe storms is expected again Thursday and
the storms may contain torrential downpours. A cold front will
move through our area by Saturday and should shift southeast of
the area on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
As of 730 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Message:

1) Flood watch has been canceled.

2) Widely scattered showers and a few thunderstorms continue.

3) Watch for late night storms which may develop west of Bristol
and impact the North Carolina High Country after midnight.

The negatively tilted upper trough is weakening but still
providing enough support for widely scattered showers. Loss of
daytime heating should bring end to most activity. However,
watching area of instability over the upper TN valley with pool
of dewpoints and CAPE near KY/TN border. CAMS, ARW and HRRR HREF
members suggesting late night potential for MCS to develop over
NE TN. Will have to monitory this closely as it would have
impact downstream into the NC mountains. Ensemble mean QPF
suggests upwards of 0.75 between midnight and 8AM Thursday along
TN/NC border with 10% chance amounts could exceed 1.25 inches.
Concern with the heavier QPF scenario would be potential for
flooding. Attm will continue to monitor radar trends and issue
Flood Watch for that cooridor if needed later this evening or
overnight. Elsewhere expecting low threat for showers but
greater threat for fog and stratus per wet ground and light
surface winds. Lows should be in the 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 225 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Not as unsettled as previous days, but still expect a chance of
showers and storms in the morning across the SW, then additional
scattered convection in the afternoon/early evening.

2) There is a Marginal Risk of severe convection Thursday afternoon
and evening, especially across the Blue Ridge and into the Foothills
and Piedmont.

The mid level shortwave trough will continue to lift well to our NE
Thu, as ridging aloft builds from the Gulf up through the Mid South
and S Appalachians. In addition to the fog/stratus areawide, the
risk of showers and a few storms will extend into at least mid
morning across our SW, as the elevated warm frontal zone and its
accompanying moist upglide aloft lifts NE through the area. Then, by
the early-mid afternoon, with the morning stratus likely having
largely burned off amidst a relative lull in pops, we should get
sufficient heating for moderate SBCAPE, as bulk shear increases to
30-40 kts, and a few strong to severe storms will remain possible.
There are indications that we may have a bit of a cap around 700 mb,
though, so despite PW rebounding a bit to just above normal,
convective coverage in the afternoon may be somewhat limited. Will
carry mainly chance pops, but with a short period of low-end likely
in the NW. Highs in the 80s with 70s higher elevations. The
shower/storm risk should wane with loss of heating Thu night,
however residual cloudiness and/or remnant showers from Midwest
convection on Thu may slip into our NW sections overnight, and will
maintain a chance of showers there late. Lows in the 60s. -gih

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 425 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Shower/storm chances will peak Fri into early Sat, then decrease
for late Sat through Tue before returning Wed.

2) Hot weather expected through the weekend, with some relief
expected by Mon through mid week.

Mid level ridging will continue to build from the Gulf NE through
the CWA early Fri, although this will flatten out and shift SE as a
deep polar low tracks E over the N Great Lakes through Fri night.
The accelerating mid level flow to 45-60 kt will become gently
cyclonic over our region, with DPVA spreading into the central
Appalachians and WAA ahead of a cold front, within a stream of above-
normal PW. The highest shower/storm chances will be focused from Fri
afternoon through at least the first part of Sat, with strong upper
divergence spreading through the region and at least marginal CAPE
expected. A few strong storms are possible late Fri into Fri night
or early Sat, and while the expected timing of the better moisture
and dynamic forcing for ascent is not diurnally favorable for strong
to severe storms, we will still need to monitor given the robust mid
level flow. As the polar low tracks through the St Lawrence Valley,
the prefrontal moisture plume should shift to our SE Sat afternoon
with cold front passage late Sat or Sat evening. Pops should then be
generally near climatology or lower through Mon and perhaps Tue
given NW steering flow and dry air in place, although clouds will
likely increase by Mon night/Tue as a deep low moving onto the W
Coast this weekend settles into the W CONUS before shifting E into
the Plains by Tue night/Wed. The downstream ridging over our area
should dominate early next week, but this too will start to shift E
and break down as deep troughing develops over the Great Lakes and
Ohio Valley by late Wed. As such, scattered to numerous showers and
storms should start to return by Wed.

Temperatures will remain well above normal Fri through Sun, with
highs well into the 80s except 70s mountains. Readings should slip
back to 70s to low 80s, with perhaps upper 60s higher peaks, for
Mon through Wed. -gih

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 252 PM EDT Wednesday...

Some light showers remain across the area, but are fading out with
the loss of daytime heating. A brief restriction is possible during
the evening in a shower, but confidence is not high enough at any
particular terminal to include in the TAF at this time. As high
clouds scatter out during the evening and the wind becomes calm,
expect all sites to fog in once again overnight due to the abundant
low level moisture and no change in airmass. All sites are expected
to go IFR/LIFR in fog/stratus for several hours. As an upper level
trough moves northeast of the region on Thursday, coverage of
showers and thunderstorms will be less than today, but still had
enough confidence to add a prevailing group for showers at LWB. Have
gone with a PROB30 mention of showers at other terminals except
KDAN, which is too far to the south to warrant a precipitation
mention at this time. There is not enough confidence to mention
thunderstorms at any terminal at this time.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Diurnally driven showers/storms will be possible again Friday, with
the greatest chances of rain on Saturday at LWB/BLF as a cold front
moves through. After the cold front moves through Saturday night,
there should be a return to VFR conditions with a drier airmass.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
As of 945 AM EDT Monday...

The National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office in
Blacksburg, VA is continuing to conduct a required, scheduled
update to their Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System
(AWIPS) that began Tuesday, May 13, 2025, lasting through
approximately Thursday, May 15, 2025.

During the time of the update, forecast operations will be
conducted by our service back-up office in Raleigh, NC to
minimize any potential interruption to services. No impacts to
our core services of forecast products and weather watches,
warnings and advisories are expected during this period.

However, limited impacts will occur to the following services:

NOAA Weather Transmitters: All NOAA Weather Radio Transmitters
maintained by NWS Blacksburg will be off the air through the
time of the update.

This includes the following transmitters in North Carolina,
Virginia, and West Virginia:

Mount Jefferson (WNG88  162.500 MHz)
Richlands (WZ2543  162.425 MHz)
Wytheville (WZ2500  162.450 MHz)
Roanoke (WXL60  162.475 MHz)
Lynchburg (WXL92  162.550 MHz)
South Boston (KJY86  162.525 MHz)
Hinton (WXM72  162.425 MHz)

Water Level Forecasts: Water level forecast services will be
degraded due to a less frequent update cycle. Forecasts will
remain on https:/water.noaa.gov/wfo/rnk through this period.

Local graphical forecast maps that are hosted in numerous places
on www.weather.gov/rnk will not be updated.

This includes all maps on the Graphical Hazardous Weather
Outlook page (https:/www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=rnk), the
majority of the graphics on the Briefing page
(https:/www.weather.gov/rnk/emer), some experimental fire
applications (https:/www.weather.gov/rnk/fire), climate graphs
for Blacksburg Forecast Area
(https:/www.weather.gov/rnk/climatePlots), and the Weather
Story (https:/www.weather.gov/rnk/weatherstory).

The forecast office in Blacksburg, VA will remain open and
staffed through the period for public and partner phone calls
and additional functions that can be completed without AWIPS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...Hartfield
LONG TERM...Hartfield
AVIATION...Green
EQUIPMENT...AMS/JCB