693
FXUS61 KRLX 030535
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1235 AM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure provides dry weather through most of the work week. A
cold front approaches Friday bringing good chances for showers thru
Friday night. Another cold front crosses during the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 1230 AM Monday...

A surface high pressure builds over the local region today,
providing dry weather, mostly clear skies and near normal
temperatures through tonight. Highs this afternoon will reach
the upper 50s across the lowlands, ranging into the mid 40s
across the northeast mountains. Lows tonight will generally be
in the 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1230 AM Monday...

The surface high pressure will continue to provide dry weather and
near normal temperatures despite the passing of a few moisture
starved fronts. The first front will cross Monday night, reinforcing
the dry air over the area through Tuesday.

By Wednesday, a low pressure moves over the Great Lakes, with a warm
front and cold front extending south and southwest across the OH
Valley and West Virginia. These fronts may bring chances for
rain showers mainly across the north and northeast portions of
our CWA Wednesday night. General guidance shows only 20 percent
PoPs mainly across the central and northeast mountains with this
system. An uptick in afternoon temperatures is still expected
for Wednesday, with highs reaching the upper 60s across the lowlands,
and ranging into the mid 50s northeast mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1230 AM Monday...

High pressure regains control during the end of the week with
near normal temperatures on Thursday, increasing about 10
degrees above normal by Friday. The increase in temperatures
comes ahead of an approaching cold front from the west.

Another low pressure system over the Great Lakes pushes a warm
front, cold front combo on Friday. This feature brings likely
to categorical PoPs for rain showers Friday and Friday night
into early Saturday morning. Some of these showers may contain
brief heavy downpours.

Yet another low pressure system is expected in our vicinity by the
end of the weekend.

Temperatures will lower after the passage of each cold front during
this period, becoming below normal this weekend, and chilly by
Monday next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1230 AM Monday...

Satellite imagery shows river valley fog developing across NE KY,
lower SE OH and portions of the WV lowlands at the time of writing.
Expect this fog to spread IFR/LIFR conditions over HTS, PKB and CRW
by 07-09Z. IFR/LIFR conditions under dense fog is also developing at
the Tygart river affecting EKN. The only sites which will stay VFR
overnight will be BKW and CKB.

Any fog will gradually lift by 13-14Z. There may be places where fog
could last through 15Z Monday morning. Widespread VFR conditions can
be expected for the rest of the day through at least midnight.

Winds will be calm overnight, becoming breezy from the west in the
afternoon.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Dense fog may not reach CRW airport and
remain on the river valley. Timing and extent of dense fog may
vary from forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  MON 11/03/25
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EST 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR in morning valley fog is possible on Tuesday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...ARJ