839
FXUS61 KRLX 062322
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
722 PM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure promotes dry, but hot weather into Monday. Weak
cold front stalls north of the area, bringing back showers and
storms Monday afternoon through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 720 PM Sunday...

Added isolated showers along our far western flank to reflect
radar trends, just for the next hour or two. The forecast is
otherwise on track, with another warm, muggy night on tap.

As of 110 PM Sunday...

Forecast weather charts show remnants of Chantal moving into
Virginia tonight, while a cold front approaches from the northwest.
Agreed with general guidance suggesting showers associated with
Chantal should remain east of the central Appalachians tonight,
having little to no impact over our area.

The cold front stalls just north of the area tonight. Its vicinity
could trigger few light nocturnal showers. However, in a summer
environment, afternoon showers and thunderstorms are anticipated
ahead and along the front Monday afternoon and evening. PoPs are
highest (60-75%) across SE Ohio, where higher instability will
enhance showers and thunderstorm development.

SBCAPE exceeding 2200 J/Kg, PWATs around 2.0 inches and poor deep
layered shear will allow for slow-moving summer convection across
our CWA Monday afternoon and evening. Although convection could
produce heavy downpours and localized flooding, widespread severe
hazards are not expected at this time. WPC maintains a marginal risk
for excessive rainfall along and west of the OH River for Monday.

Expect another muggy night with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s.
Patchy river valley fog may develop during the overnight hours.
Highs for Monday will depend on cloud cover and cooling showers
affecting the area. Latest guidance run lowered afternoon
temperatures few degrees, still allowing for heat index values to
reach to 100 degree mark at few spots across the lowlands. Used
the 10 percentile for dewpoints for Monday to mitigate down heat
index values. Decided to kick the can with an advisory at this
point as heat indexes are projected to be below advisory
criteria.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 110 PM Sunday...

By Tuesday night, the front waves south, stalling across our area.
At the same time, an H500 shortwave pass by. Adding to the equation,
available moisture, afternoon heating, and weak deep layered shear,
expect these features to interact to produce widespread showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening. Expect slow-moving
heavy downpours capable to produce flooding problems. This raises
concerns for isolated instances of flash flooding, especially in
areas that have seen recent rainfall. WPC keeps our entire area
under a marginal risk for excessive rainfall for Tuesday into
Wednesday morning.

Plenty of cloudiness and cooling showers will provide moderate
temperatures from Tuesday through Thursday as the front lift north
leaving the area under a summer environment. General guidance brings
chances for precipitation every afternoon and evening, with lesser
coverage at night through this time period.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 110 PM Sunday...

By Thursday night, the nearly-stationary frontal boundary waves back
south into our area. The GFS model brings a strong H500 shortwave
arriving to SE OH around 8 PM Thursday evening. These features will
bring back showers and thunderstorms, and a renewed threat for
flooding due to antecedent precipitation and nearly saturated soils.

General guidance suggests frontal boundary will remain north of the
area by the end of the week and into the weekend. This will keep a
summer environment with juicy airmass and afternoon heating capable
to sustain showers and thunderstorms more numerous during the
afternoon and evening hours.

Looking ahead, a much more comfortable and cooler airmass will
settle into the region Tuesday through the end of the week, due to
abundant cloudiness and cooling showers. This will provide a welcome
relief from the recent summer heat and humidity.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 720 PM Sunday...

Isolated showers in the middle Ohio Valley this evening should
dissipated before making it as far as the Ohio River, and have
no effect on the TAF sites.

Guidance suggests the downward trend in overnight valley fog the
past few nights will continue, with overnight fog formation
limited to the deeper valleys in and near the mountains, and
VLIFR fog was coded only for EKN 09-11Z, the fog there beginning
to form as early as 07-08Z and dissipating by 12Z. Elsewhere,
fog was not coded at all, although is possible along the Elk but
remaining below the runway.

Monday will be another humid day with another hot afternoon.
However, the relative tranquility of recent days may be broken
by showers and thunderstorms forming over the middle Ohio Valley
in the afternoon, as a mid/upper-level short wave trough and
surface cold front approach from the west.

Light and variable to calm surface flow tonight will become
light southwest Monday morning, and then veer to light
west during Monday afternoon. Flow aloft will be light west to
southwest.

Weak southeasterly flow will become calm overnight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of fog at Elkins
overnight tonight may vary, and some degree of restriction in
fog is not entirely out of the question at most other sites.
Showers and thunderstorms may be more impactful than coded for
Monday afternoon over the middle Ohio Valley, and cannot be
entirely ruled out elsewhere either.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
Brief periods of IFR conditions possible under heavy showers or
thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours,
Monday evening through Friday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRM/ARJ
NEAR TERM...TRM/ARJ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...TRM