562
FXUS61 KRLX 251039
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
539 AM EST Sun Jan 25 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Winter Storm Warnings remain in effect through Monday morning.
The primary change is a refined timing for the transition from
snow to a sleet and freezing rain mix this morning, with a
slight increase in expected ice accumulations across the Metro
Valley and southern coalfields.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Treacherous travel and potential power outages from a mix of
heavy snow and significant ice accumulation through tonight. Heavy
snow will be most persistent across southeast Ohio and northern
West Virginia, while significant icing is expected across the
Metro Valley and southern coalfields.

2. Dangerously cold temperatures and life-threatening wind
chills arrive Monday night into Tuesday.

3. Continued sub-freezing temperatures and occasional light
snow through the remainder of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

The primary forecast challenge this morning involves the
northward progression of a stout warm nose and its impact on
precipitation types. Current observations show light snow
ongoing across much of the area, but thermal profiles are
rapidly changing. Analysis of the H850 layer reveals strong warm
air advection associated with a 60-70KT low-level jet. Vertical
profiles at Charleston show temperatures at H850 warming to
near +5C by mid-morning. This has already resulted in a
transition from snow to sleet and freezing rain across pockets of
the southern coalfields and will continue to slowly work its
way north, reaching the Metro Valley before daybreak.

Across southeast Ohio and northern West Virginia, including
Parkersburg and Clarksburg, the sub-freezing layer remains deep
enough to maintain snow as the primary mode for much of the day.
Snowfall rates of 1 inch per hour are possible as frontogenetic
forcing intensifies. Farther south, the duration of freezing
rain is a major concern. Even as surface air temperatures
should approach the 32F to 35F range this afternoon, surfaces
remain cold-soaked from the recent arctic air. This increases
the risk for significant ice accretion on power lines and
untreated roadways. A transition to plain rain is expected in
the southern coalfields by late afternoon, but any areas that
typically struggle to scour out could see several additional
hours of ice accumulations. With liquid precipitation totals of
1 to 2 inches, some minor flooding may be possible across these
areas as well.

Better forcing arrives this evening with the approach of the
main H500 trough axis, likely yielding a final burst of heavier
precipitation. As the surface low tracks into western
Pennsylvania, a strong cold front will sweep through from
northwest to southeast tonight. This will transition all
remaining precipitation back to snow. With wet surfaces and
falling temperatures, freezing on roads is a high probability,
impacting the Monday morning commute.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

In the wake of the system, strong cold air advection (CAA)
commences on Monday. H850 temperatures are progged to plunge to
near -15C to -20C. Lingering boundary layer moisture and a
moisture connection to the Great Lakes will support scattered
snow showers and squalls throughout the day. While additional
accumulations will be light, gusty northwest winds may create
blowing snow and significantly reduced visibility.

The most dangerous period arrives Monday night as the arctic
high settles over the region. Low temperatures are forecast to
drop into the single digits across the lowlands and below zero
in the Northeast Mountains. Combined with sustained winds of 10
to 15 mph, wind chill values will likely require cold weather
headlines, but will defer issuance on those until we get out of
the meat of this system.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

The long-term pattern remains highly amplified with a deep
trough over the eastern United States. A series of clipper
systems will rotate through the mean flow, with the first
arriving Tuesday into Wednesday. This will reinforce the arctic
air and provide additional chances for light snow, primarily in
the mountains due to upslope enhancement. Temperatures are not
expected to rise above freezing at any location through the end
of the 7-day forecast period. This prolonged cold will present
an increasing threat to water infrastructure, remaining without
power, and those who need assistance who are located on
untreated roadways.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Conditions will remain predominantly IFR to LIFR through tonight
as a major winter storm impacts all terminals. Heavy snow is
expected at PKB and CKB through the morning, while a mix of
sleet and freezing rain will impact HTS, CRW, and BKW. A
transition to plain rain is possible at BKW, HTS and CRW this
afternoon, but IFR ceilings will persist.

Low-level wind shear (LLWS) is a significant concern this
morning as a 50 KT jet at 2000ft AGL moves overhead. Winds at
the surface will be light NE shifting to SE at 5-10 KTs through
the day, turning west-northwesterly 10-15G15-20KT tonight.

After 00Z Monday, a cold front will shift winds to the NW, and
all precipitation will change back to snow. Periodic VLIFR
conditions are possible in snow squalls this evening.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Precipitation type will vary with rising
surface temperatures and fluctuating strength of a warm nose
loft through midday.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               SUN 01/25/26
UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EST 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
NW winds of 10-20 KTs with higher gusts will continue Monday.
MVFR to IFR restrictions in scattered snow showers will persist
through Monday night. Additional IFR possible in snow showers
Tuesday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Monday for WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>034-039-040-515>526.
OH...Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Monday for OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Monday for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Monday for VAZ003-004.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JP
AVIATION...JP