411
FXUS61 KRLX 100616
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
216 AM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Daily chances for mainly diurnally driven showers and
thunderstorms continues as a warm and moist airmass remains in
place.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 200 AM Thursday...

Mid-level cloud cover may assist in impeding formation of
widespread fog this morning, but at least patchy instances are
expected. Think any coverage will be too limited to warrant a
special weather statement for ths morning commute, but will
continue to monitor trends.

Ascent associated with the right entrance region of a H250 jet
stream that extends from northern West Virginia to the Canadian
Maritimes this morning will continue to yield elevated showers and
perhaps an isolated rumble of thunder through late morning. This
ascent should slowly creep southeast out of the forecast area by
this afternoon. This should leave the northwestern half of the
forecast area in weakly convergent upper level flow, while the
southeast half remains more or less neutral. Columnar moisture will
be a little less than in preceding days with PWAT values generally
1.5 to 1.8 inches across the region but warm cloud depths remain
rather deep, 10kft+. In the absence of synoptic forcing, convection
will be primarily diurnally driven with isolated to low end
scattered coverage this afternoon. The best instability is progged
to be across the Middle Ohio Valley where PWATs are slightly higher,
but this will be in the aforementioned weakly convergent flow aloft
which may serve to somewhat suppress convection. Inversely, the
mountains are expected to less unstable, but with parcels not
impeded by convergent flow aloft. Overall, think this largely
balances out coverage wise. Flow through the column will be
substantially weaker than yesterday with deep layer shear around 10-
15KTs, so not expecting much in way of updraft organization. The
main threats with any convection that develops will be locally heavy
downpours (potentially over locally compromised soils) and locally
gusty winds with any core collapses/wet microbursts.

Activity should quickly settle down this evening with the loss of
surface heating with a dry overnight. Clearing skies, light winds,
and wet ground conditions should set the stage for a good fog night,
likely more widespread than just in the typical valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 AM Thursday...

Weak ridging aloft is expected to be in place Friday through
Saturday with PWATs sitting a little closer to mean to 75th
percentile values based on proximity soundings. Subsidence aloft
does not appear strong enough to completely suppress diurnally driven
convection, but coverage should be rather limited. Deep layer shear
remains fairly weak, so not expecting much of a threat from this
activity outside of some locally gusty winds or perhaps some storm
scale interaction. A weak shortwave undercutting the ridge Saturday
evening may offer a little better convective coverage than Friday.
Afternoon highs through the period remain a little warmer than
normal for this time of the year with values across the lowlands
generally in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Heat indices are expected
to remain below advisory criteria with afternoon mixed dew point
values generally in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 200 AM Thursday...

Weak ridging starts to break down on Sunday as troughing approaches
the Upper Great Lakes. This should yield a little better diurnally
driven convective coverage on Sunday. Models to differ slightly with
the timing of this troughing, and it is conceivable, although at
this point not likely that it arrives early enough Sunday evening to
support some better organized convection as deep layer shear
increases to around 35KTs across our north.

In the wake of this feature, we should see a brief return to a drier
column for the balance of the forecast before Gulf influenced
moisture once again invades the region toward mid to late in the
week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 215 AM Thursday...

Showers continue near BKW/EKN this morning as synoptic ascent slowly
works its way out of the region to the southeast.

Mid-level cloud cover should help limit widespread fog formation
this morning, but locally dense fog  and very low stratus will be
possible, especially where heavier rainfall yesterday with
improvement to VFR by around 14Z. Diurnally forced convection should
start popping up around 17-18Z - overall low confidence in any given
storm hitting any given terminal so will largely address with VCTS
for now. Clearing skies overnight tonight will yield widespread fog
extending out of the valleys.

Winds remain light, except gusty and erratic near convection.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Could see a mix of fog and low stratus this
morning. Isolated convection this afternoon may affect any given
terminal. Dense fog could start developing by 05Z tonight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              THU 07/10/25
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    L    H    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    M    L    H    H    H    H    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    M    L    H    L    L    H    M    H    H    H    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    M    L    M    M    M    H    H    H    L    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    M    H    M    L    L    L    H    M    M

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
Brief periods of IFR conditions possible under showers and
thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours,
each day through Monday. IFR fog possible during the
overnights.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JP