


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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839 FXUS61 KRLX 062322 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 722 PM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure promotes dry, but hot weather into Monday. Weak cold front stalls north of the area, bringing back showers and storms Monday afternoon through the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 720 PM Sunday... Added isolated showers along our far western flank to reflect radar trends, just for the next hour or two. The forecast is otherwise on track, with another warm, muggy night on tap. As of 110 PM Sunday... Forecast weather charts show remnants of Chantal moving into Virginia tonight, while a cold front approaches from the northwest. Agreed with general guidance suggesting showers associated with Chantal should remain east of the central Appalachians tonight, having little to no impact over our area. The cold front stalls just north of the area tonight. Its vicinity could trigger few light nocturnal showers. However, in a summer environment, afternoon showers and thunderstorms are anticipated ahead and along the front Monday afternoon and evening. PoPs are highest (60-75%) across SE Ohio, where higher instability will enhance showers and thunderstorm development. SBCAPE exceeding 2200 J/Kg, PWATs around 2.0 inches and poor deep layered shear will allow for slow-moving summer convection across our CWA Monday afternoon and evening. Although convection could produce heavy downpours and localized flooding, widespread severe hazards are not expected at this time. WPC maintains a marginal risk for excessive rainfall along and west of the OH River for Monday. Expect another muggy night with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. Patchy river valley fog may develop during the overnight hours. Highs for Monday will depend on cloud cover and cooling showers affecting the area. Latest guidance run lowered afternoon temperatures few degrees, still allowing for heat index values to reach to 100 degree mark at few spots across the lowlands. Used the 10 percentile for dewpoints for Monday to mitigate down heat index values. Decided to kick the can with an advisory at this point as heat indexes are projected to be below advisory criteria. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 110 PM Sunday... By Tuesday night, the front waves south, stalling across our area. At the same time, an H500 shortwave pass by. Adding to the equation, available moisture, afternoon heating, and weak deep layered shear, expect these features to interact to produce widespread showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening. Expect slow-moving heavy downpours capable to produce flooding problems. This raises concerns for isolated instances of flash flooding, especially in areas that have seen recent rainfall. WPC keeps our entire area under a marginal risk for excessive rainfall for Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Plenty of cloudiness and cooling showers will provide moderate temperatures from Tuesday through Thursday as the front lift north leaving the area under a summer environment. General guidance brings chances for precipitation every afternoon and evening, with lesser coverage at night through this time period. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 110 PM Sunday... By Thursday night, the nearly-stationary frontal boundary waves back south into our area. The GFS model brings a strong H500 shortwave arriving to SE OH around 8 PM Thursday evening. These features will bring back showers and thunderstorms, and a renewed threat for flooding due to antecedent precipitation and nearly saturated soils. General guidance suggests frontal boundary will remain north of the area by the end of the week and into the weekend. This will keep a summer environment with juicy airmass and afternoon heating capable to sustain showers and thunderstorms more numerous during the afternoon and evening hours. Looking ahead, a much more comfortable and cooler airmass will settle into the region Tuesday through the end of the week, due to abundant cloudiness and cooling showers. This will provide a welcome relief from the recent summer heat and humidity. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 720 PM Sunday... Isolated showers in the middle Ohio Valley this evening should dissipated before making it as far as the Ohio River, and have no effect on the TAF sites. Guidance suggests the downward trend in overnight valley fog the past few nights will continue, with overnight fog formation limited to the deeper valleys in and near the mountains, and VLIFR fog was coded only for EKN 09-11Z, the fog there beginning to form as early as 07-08Z and dissipating by 12Z. Elsewhere, fog was not coded at all, although is possible along the Elk but remaining below the runway. Monday will be another humid day with another hot afternoon. However, the relative tranquility of recent days may be broken by showers and thunderstorms forming over the middle Ohio Valley in the afternoon, as a mid/upper-level short wave trough and surface cold front approach from the west. Light and variable to calm surface flow tonight will become light southwest Monday morning, and then veer to light west during Monday afternoon. Flow aloft will be light west to southwest. Weak southeasterly flow will become calm overnight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of fog at Elkins overnight tonight may vary, and some degree of restriction in fog is not entirely out of the question at most other sites. Showers and thunderstorms may be more impactful than coded for Monday afternoon over the middle Ohio Valley, and cannot be entirely ruled out elsewhere either. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 EDT 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H L M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 00Z TUESDAY... Brief periods of IFR conditions possible under heavy showers or thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours, Monday evening through Friday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/ARJ NEAR TERM...TRM/ARJ SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...TRM