593
FXUS61 KRLX 051644
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1244 PM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Tranquil weather prevails through Monday courtesy of high
pressure. A cold front brings the next chance of rain Tuesday
into Wednesday. Dry and cooler to round out the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1245 PM Sunday...

Visible satellite at the time of writing depicted widespread
sunny skies across the forecast area under the guise of surface
high pressure. Upper level height rises will yield warming
daytime temperatures through the near term period, with highs
ranging in the 70s along the higher terrain and the 80s for the
lower elevations. A stronger push of onshore flow will also
impose increasing moisture overnight into Monday, bringing the
return of high cirrus clouds throughout the day and lowering
into a stratus deck by late Monday evening. This will set the
stage for the arrival of precipitation opening up the short
term forecast period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1245 PM Sunday...

Precipitation chances increase in earnest from west to east on
Tuesday as a cold front sweeps through the Ohio Valley. Low
level moisture ushered in along pre-frontal southerly flow that
first brought increased cloudiness on Monday will then begin to
contribute developing light showers early Tuesday morning,
followed by moderate to heavier bands of rain attached to the
nearing frontal boundary. Also attached to the front will be
isolated thunderstorms, which may yield locally heavier rainfall
amounts.

For Wednesday, rain potential will continue into the morning as
the cold front makes eastward progress into the Mid-Atlantic
region. Rain chances taper down just before dawn across the Ohio
River Valley and along the mountains by later in the afternoon.
High pressure moving down into the Great Lakes will then
encourage the return of drier weather, coupled with much cooler
temperatures that will round out the work week.

As it currently stands, storm total rainfall amounts are progged
between 1 to 1.5 inches across the area. These amounts will help
to squash drought conditions festering in the Central
Appalachians.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1245 PM Sunday...

Dry weather and refreshing temperatures permeate into the area
in the wake of the cold front for the second half of the work
week into the weekend. This cooler airmass will be the culprit
of Canadian high pressure pressing into the Great Lakes region,
which will maintain its residency through the end of the
forecast period. A few global models hint at moisture
encroaching from the southwest late in the week, but will retain
a dry forecast with this current issuance. Daytime temperatures
will range in the 60s/70s, then tumbling down into the 30s/40s
during the overnight hours.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1245 PM Sunday...

CAVU flight conditions prevail this afternoon in the midst of
dominating high pressure. River valley fog development is
probable overnight tonight into Monday morning, primarily for
EKN. Near daybreak, a brief moment of fog is also possible at
PKB and CRW in similar fashion to this past morning. Monday will
once again feature dry weather, but cloud coverage will increase
throughout the day as the next disturbance looms for Tuesday.
Winds will be mostly light and variable through the period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent of fog may vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR is possible in heavier showers or thunderstorms Tuesday
into Wednesday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...05
NEAR TERM...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...05