534
FXUS61 KRLX 111730
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
130 PM EDT Thu Sep 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure will continue to dominate the pattern,
leading to dry conditions and a gradual warming trend through
the weekend and into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 130 PM Thursday...

Key Message:

* Little to no chance for precipitation through at least early
  next week.

An upper level trough continues to slide east across the region, but
with very dry air in place at the low and mid levels, weather will
remain quiet. High pressure at the surface will support mostly clear
skies and light northerly winds through Friday. Afternoon high
temperatures will be near normal, ranging from the mid 70s to mid
80s in the lowlands. Afternoon relative humidity values will range
from the upper 20s to mid 30s across a bulk of the region both days,
supporting continuing drying conditions of the soil and fine,
unsheltered fuels. Winds remaining light and generally good
overnight RH recoveries will help to limit any more substantial
wildfire risk.

Overnight, with clear skies and calm winds, we will see
another night of effective radiational cooling, dropping into the
mid 40s to 50s across the lower elevations. These conditions will
also be favorable for the development of patchy valley fog,
especially in the river valleys, which could be locally dense and
reduce visibilities toward sunrise.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 130 PM Thursday...

Dry weather continues into the weekend as an upper level ridge
begins to build in from the west. This will reinforce the surface
high pressure already in place, leading to a stretch of tranquil
weather. Temperatures will continue their warming trend, with highs
on Saturday reaching the low to mid 80s in the lowlands and upper
70s in the mountains, a few degrees above normal for this time of
year. Overnight lows will remain pleasant, primarily in the
upper 40s to 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 130 PM Thursday...

The upper level ridge is expected to remain the dominant feature
through the long term, keeping conditions dry and temperatures above
normal. Highs are forecast to be in the mid to upper 80s for much of
the period. There is some signal that an area of low pressure could
develop off Atlantic coast and try to drift in underneath the
ridge by Tuesday/Wednesday. While confidence is low at this time,
this feature would introduce enhanced moisture into our area by the
middle of next week increasing precipitation chances. For now, given
low confidence, the forecast reflects central guidance, which
remains dry through the next 7 days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 130 PM Thursday...

VFR conditions will prevail through this evening with light north
winds this afternoon becoming calm overnight. There is potential for
IFR/LIFR conditions due to valley fog development after 08Z,
likely at EKN and possible at CKB, PKB and CRW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and extent of valley fog may vary
from the forecast overnight tonight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
EDT 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR possible in early morning valley fog each morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JP