


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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411 FXUS61 KRLX 100616 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 216 AM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Daily chances for mainly diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms continues as a warm and moist airmass remains in place. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 200 AM Thursday... Mid-level cloud cover may assist in impeding formation of widespread fog this morning, but at least patchy instances are expected. Think any coverage will be too limited to warrant a special weather statement for ths morning commute, but will continue to monitor trends. Ascent associated with the right entrance region of a H250 jet stream that extends from northern West Virginia to the Canadian Maritimes this morning will continue to yield elevated showers and perhaps an isolated rumble of thunder through late morning. This ascent should slowly creep southeast out of the forecast area by this afternoon. This should leave the northwestern half of the forecast area in weakly convergent upper level flow, while the southeast half remains more or less neutral. Columnar moisture will be a little less than in preceding days with PWAT values generally 1.5 to 1.8 inches across the region but warm cloud depths remain rather deep, 10kft+. In the absence of synoptic forcing, convection will be primarily diurnally driven with isolated to low end scattered coverage this afternoon. The best instability is progged to be across the Middle Ohio Valley where PWATs are slightly higher, but this will be in the aforementioned weakly convergent flow aloft which may serve to somewhat suppress convection. Inversely, the mountains are expected to less unstable, but with parcels not impeded by convergent flow aloft. Overall, think this largely balances out coverage wise. Flow through the column will be substantially weaker than yesterday with deep layer shear around 10- 15KTs, so not expecting much in way of updraft organization. The main threats with any convection that develops will be locally heavy downpours (potentially over locally compromised soils) and locally gusty winds with any core collapses/wet microbursts. Activity should quickly settle down this evening with the loss of surface heating with a dry overnight. Clearing skies, light winds, and wet ground conditions should set the stage for a good fog night, likely more widespread than just in the typical valleys. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 200 AM Thursday... Weak ridging aloft is expected to be in place Friday through Saturday with PWATs sitting a little closer to mean to 75th percentile values based on proximity soundings. Subsidence aloft does not appear strong enough to completely suppress diurnally driven convection, but coverage should be rather limited. Deep layer shear remains fairly weak, so not expecting much of a threat from this activity outside of some locally gusty winds or perhaps some storm scale interaction. A weak shortwave undercutting the ridge Saturday evening may offer a little better convective coverage than Friday. Afternoon highs through the period remain a little warmer than normal for this time of the year with values across the lowlands generally in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Heat indices are expected to remain below advisory criteria with afternoon mixed dew point values generally in the upper 60s to lower 70s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 200 AM Thursday... Weak ridging starts to break down on Sunday as troughing approaches the Upper Great Lakes. This should yield a little better diurnally driven convective coverage on Sunday. Models to differ slightly with the timing of this troughing, and it is conceivable, although at this point not likely that it arrives early enough Sunday evening to support some better organized convection as deep layer shear increases to around 35KTs across our north. In the wake of this feature, we should see a brief return to a drier column for the balance of the forecast before Gulf influenced moisture once again invades the region toward mid to late in the week. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 215 AM Thursday... Showers continue near BKW/EKN this morning as synoptic ascent slowly works its way out of the region to the southeast. Mid-level cloud cover should help limit widespread fog formation this morning, but locally dense fog and very low stratus will be possible, especially where heavier rainfall yesterday with improvement to VFR by around 14Z. Diurnally forced convection should start popping up around 17-18Z - overall low confidence in any given storm hitting any given terminal so will largely address with VCTS for now. Clearing skies overnight tonight will yield widespread fog extending out of the valleys. Winds remain light, except gusty and erratic near convection. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Could see a mix of fog and low stratus this morning. Isolated convection this afternoon may affect any given terminal. Dense fog could start developing by 05Z tonight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 07/10/25 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L H H M H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H L H M H BKW CONSISTENCY H H L L M L H H H H M H EKN CONSISTENCY L M L H L L H M H H H L PKB CONSISTENCY L M L M M M H H H L H H CKB CONSISTENCY L L M M H M L L L H M M AFTER 06Z FRIDAY... Brief periods of IFR conditions possible under showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours, each day through Monday. IFR fog possible during the overnights. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JP NEAR TERM...JP SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...JP