615
FXUS61 KRLX 091709
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
109 PM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A large high drifts by north of the region today through Friday.
This will lead to clear sky, and mountain valley frost tonight.
Coastal low forms and moves up the coast this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1209 PM Thursday...

* Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories issued in the West
  Virginia mountains overnight into Friday morning *

Beautiful fall weather is expected the next two days with
temperatures reaching the upper 60s this afternoon under plenty of
sunshine. Temperatures will reach the lower 70s Friday afternoon
with no rain expected. High pressure will remain in place over the
middle Ohio Valley the entire near-term period.

Tonight, with mostly clear skies and dew points into the middle
30s, overnight lows are expected to drop into the 30s across the
higher elevations and the upper 30s to lower 40s elsewhere.
Freeze warnings have been issued for Pocahontas and Randolph
counties in West Virginia, and frost advisories have also been
issued in the mountains bordering those counties. Please
remember to protect sensitive vegetation from the cold
overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1209 PM Thursday...

This weekend, models are showing an upper-level low over the Great
Lakes, another low pressure system over the southeast coastline, and
a large area of high pressure over Bermuda. These two areas of low
pressure should have minimal impact on the weather across our area,
with most of the precipitation expected to be well east and north of
our area. However, slight chance PoPs are currently being forecast
Sunday across the northeast as the coastal low strengthens and moves
northward over the mid-Atlantic.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1209 PM Thursday...

The long-term forecast period looks quiet as high pressure dominates
the weather pattern. A large upper-level ridge will be parked over
the south central US for the early to middle part of next week
with quiet weather expected over the middle Ohio Valley and
central Appalachians. Temperatures should be seasonable to
slightly above average for mid-October.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 109 PM Thursday...

Aside from some IFR valley fog expected at KEKN early Friday
between 05Z and 14Z, VFR conditions are expected through the 18Z
TAF period. Expect generally light winds throughout the period
from the east, becoming southeasterly Friday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog may briefly develop at other terminals
around sunrise Friday morning

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
EDT 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
At least patchy IFR valley fog is possible each morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for WVZ039-040-516-
     518>522.
     Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for WVZ523>526.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26