158
FXUS61 KRLX 191813
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
213 PM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Wildfire smoke brings hazy skies today. Increasing confidence in
severe weather occurring Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Mostly dry and hazy today, fog expected tonight.

2) Increasing confidence in severe storms and heavy downpours
occurring Tuesday into Tuesday night.

3) Quieter for the end of the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

A front loitering near the Virginia/North Carolina border could
prompt a few showers or thunderstorms in southwest Virginia or far
southeast West Virginia this afternoon. Otherwise, high pressure
building in from the north will bring dry conditions to the majority
of the area today and tonight.

Unfortunately, in addition to drier air, north to northwest flow is
transporting smoke from Canadian wildfires back down into the area.
This has allowed some haze and impacts to air quality to
materialize, particularly in the northern half of the forecast area.

Widespread fog is expected to develop as winds calm and skies
clear overnight. Rapid changes in visibility will be possible,
particularly within any areas of locally dense fog.


KEY MESSAGE 2...

After a fairly quiet Monday, an upper-level trough digs into the
northeast US as a low ambles across Ontario and Quebec. This system
is projected to lift a warm front through the area early Tuesday and
then steer a cold front west to east across the area late Tuesday
into Tuesday night.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop in the warm,
moist, and unstable environment out ahead of the cold front,
then activity will continue as the front moves through
overnight.

Confidence in severe weather has been increasing as forecast
soundings continue to indicate development of strong instability
and shear, favorable lapse rates, ample moisture, and a decent
amount of helicity late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night.
While damaging winds should be the primary concern, hail and
tornadoes will also be possible.

In addition to severe storms, precipitable water values over
1.5 inches are likely to support heavy downpours which may lead
to localized flash flooding.


KEY MESSAGE 3...

While a trough lingers overhead, high pressure at the surface
brings quieter weather for the conclusion of the work week.
Unsettled conditions may return with a shortwave next weekend,
though timing remains uncertain at this point.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mainly VFR ceilings are expected for the rest of the day while smoke
from Canadian wildfires brings haze and occasional MVFR visibilities
to the northern terminals. Flight conditions should then deteriorate
to IFR or worse as fog develops under calm flow and mostly clear
skies tonight. Once fog dissipates in the morning, VFR conditions
will prevail for the remainder of the TAF period.

5-12KT north to northwest winds may occasionally gust into the teens
this afternoon and evening, then winds will be calm to light and
variable tonight into Monday morning.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent of fog tonight and timing of
improvements Monday morning may vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
EDT 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR possible in heavy showers and strong storms Tuesday and
Tuesday night.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for WVZ009>011-
     019-020-031-032-040.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...20