499
FXUS61 KRLX 111537
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1137 AM EDT Tue Mar 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Very mild and dry through the end of the work week. A strong low
pressure system will impact the area this weekend. Temperatures
will then turn cooler Sunday and Monday behind a cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 920 AM Tuesday...

Temperatures are slowly warming up amid plenty of sunshine. Adjusted
hourly temperatures to follow latest trends. After coordinating with
state agencies, issued a Special Weather Statement for elevated fire
danger due to RH values expected in the low 20s, and developing
gusty winds this afternoon and evening. Rest of forecast remains on
track.

As of 120 AM Tuesday...

Key Point:

* Exceptionally mild along with breezy and dry conditions will yield
  an increased potential for wildfire spread today

Calm, clear and very dry conditions overnight has yielded a very
large ridge valley split with some lowland valley locations near
freezing while ridgetops sit in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Tried to
reflect this in this morning`s forecast as much as possible, but
somewhat difficult to get it perfect with 2.5km grid spacing.

A southwesterly gradient increases today as surface low pressure
transits south of James Bay this morning. This will yield
unseasonably mild temperatures today, with highs mainly in the lower
to mid 70s across the lower elevations along with a southwesterly
breezy 10-15 mph with occasional gusts 20 to 25 mph. A very dry
airmass in place will yield afternoon relative humidity values down
into the lower 20s. 10 hour fuel stick moisture trends, where they
are available, have been getting down into the upper single digits
in preceding afternoons and will likely see the same today. Will
confer with land management agencies this morning to see if they
would like a fire danger statement, but as a reminder all of our
served areas already have fire laws in effect restricting daytime
burning.

Aforementioned low pressure drags a backdoor cold front briefly
through the area overnight with little more than an increase in mid-
level cloudiness expected. Lows across the lower elevations
generally in the upper 30s across the north (behind the cold front)
and in the lower to mid 40s across the south (in front of the cold
front).

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1132 AM Tuesday...

A very weak system will pass by to the south Thursday. As it does
so, there can be a passing shower or thunderstorm, mainly across
southern West Virginia and southwest Virginia, but most places
will remain dry. Otherwise, a ridge of high pressure will
continue to strengthen over the mid- Atlantic and Northeast
Thursday and Friday, leading to very warm temperatures. High
temperatures will be in the middle to upper 70s both days across
the lowlands, with higher elevations seeing temperatures in the
upper 60s to lower 70s.

Enhanced fire danger will remain a concern both Thursday and Friday,
but Friday will be more of a concern because of breezier winds
throughout the day. Expect wind gusts to reach 20-30 mph Friday
afternoon as the surface pressure gradient strengthens with a
deepening system well to our west, over the Plains. Afternoon
minimum RH values will drop into the middle 30s across the lowlands
Thursday and the lower to middle 30s Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1133 AM Tuesday...

That deepening system over the Plains will track northeast into the
Great Lakes Saturday. Its associated warm front will lift north of
our area Saturday, placing us in the warm sector. Severe
thunderstorms will be possible Saturday, and the Day 5 outlook from
SPC currently places all of our area in a 15% risk of severe
thunderstorms. With a dynamic system like this, shear will be
plentiful for thunderstorm organization. Models currently show
50+ kts of 0-6 km bulk shear for Saturday afternoon across the
entire region. However, models are not quite in agreement with
the instability potential, with most models not showing much
CAPE across central and eastern portions of West Virginia. The
best potential instability appears to be across portions of
southeast Ohio, northeast Kentucky, and western West Virginia,
with some models showing 800-1,000 J/kg of MLCAPE by 18Z
Saturday over parts of Kentucky. Models suggest that any
instability would quickly diminish by 00Z. We will see how this
changes in time as we get closer and models get a better handle
of the setup.

Winds will be quite gusty with this system as it crosses Saturday
into Sunday with a tight isobaric gradient field across much of the
eastern United States. We will see if this warrants advisories
for portions of our area as we get closer. A strong cold front
will cross Sunday morning. Temperatures will tumble from the 70s
Saturday into the 60s Sunday. Then, Monday will end up quite a
bit cooler with highs only from the upper 40s to middle 50s
as a large upper- level trough swings across the Ohio Valley.
The cooler weather will be short- lived, as another ridge is
expected to build back in on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 120 AM Tuesday...

VFR conditions prevail through the next 24 hours with mainly
clear skies through the day today and increasing mid-level
clouds tonight with a dry cold front. Winds generally
southwesterly 5-10KTs with some gusts into the low 20s possible
this afternoon. Will see a weak northerly shift tonight for the
northern terminals behind the cold front.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Saturday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP/JMC
NEAR TERM...ARJ/JP
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JP