182
FXUS61 KRLX 131914
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
314 PM EDT Tue May 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers/storms at times through Wednesday, especially during the
afternoon/evening hours, courtesy of an upper level low. Briefly
dry Thursday, then more showers/storms later Thursday into this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 250 PM Tuesday...

Key Points:

* Locally heavy rain this afternoon/evening could result in
  isolated instances of flash flooding.

* Strong to severe storms are possible this afternoon/evening.
  Hail and damaging wind gusts are the main hazards.

A broad upper level low to the west of the region, currently
centered across the central Ohio Valley, will continue to shift
north and east through the near term period. This will result in
continued unsettled weather across the forecast area, with
showers/storms from time to time, primarily focused during the
afternoon/evening with daytime heating. Coverage is anticipated
to decrease significantly tonight, with at least some patchy
fog development given any clearing that occurs. Fog could be
locally dense in spots. Additional shower/storm development is
anticipated Wednesday afternoon/evening, although coverage should
be less widespread than today, with the highest probability for
rain being in/near the higher terrain.

The main concerns for activity today are localized flash
flooding, as well as the potential for strong to severe
thunderstorms, with hail and damaging wind gusts being the main
hazards. A very moist atmosphere and mean low-level flow of ~
5-15 kts has resulted in slow-moving showers and storms across
the area at present, which could lead to isolated flash flooding
issues through this evening. While severe weather is not
expected on Wednesday, a few isolated high water issues once
again remain possible.

High temperatures today will be in the low to mid 70s across the
lowlands, with 60s across the mountains. High temperatures on
Wednesday will be a few degrees higher than today. Lows tonight
will be in the 50s across much of the forecast area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1209 PM Tuesday...

An upper-level ridge will strengthen over the middle Ohio Valley
Thursday with the return of very warm weather. High temperatures
will range from the middle to upper 80s across the lowlands.

Chances of showers and thunderstorms will return Thursday night as a
wave of 500-mb vorticity approaches from the west. A cluster of
strong to severe thunderstorms may develop over the midwestern
states Thursday afternoon, tracking east into the middle Ohio Valley
overnight. It`s unclear whether the thunderstorm complex would hold
together once it approaches the Ohio River. It`s possible that
thunderstorms would eventually lose steam as they approach the Ohio
River with unfavorable lapse rates and waning instability. However,
a few models, including the NAM, still show 800-1,000 J/kg of MLCAPE
available by 06Z Friday. It will be interesting to see what the CAMs
suggest in upcoming runs. The SPC currently has a marginal risk of
severe weather outlooked for this time period though 12Z Friday
morning.

There may be a higher probability of strong to severe thunderstorms
Friday with plenty of instability building throughout the day, steep
low-level lapse rates (8-9 C/kg), and a robust amount of 0-6km shear
(40-50 kts). Highs will range from the middle to upper 80s again
Friday with 60 to perhaps 70 degree dew points. A cold front will
approach late Friday night, and thunderstorms will remain possible
through that time period. The Day 4 SPC outlook currently shows a
15% risk area drawn over central and western Kentucky, just slightly
west of our County Warning Area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1209 PM Tuesday...

A cold front will cross east of the region Saturday morning,
hopefully leaving dry and quiet weather in its wake as high pressure
builds into the Ohio Valley. However, not all models are on board
with this, and some models show slower solutions, keeping the front
stalled over southwest Virginia throughout the weekend. However,
this seems like the less likely possibility.

Saturday will likely still feature lingering activity, especially
during the morning as the front crosses through. We are more
confident that Sunday and Monday should be mostly dry days, but will
keep at least a slight chance of rain in the forecast in case the
less likely model solution pans out.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 220 PM Tuesday...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are currently progressing
across the forecast area, providing some brief MVFR CIG
restrictions, along with brief IFR/MVFR VSBY restrictions. This
trend will continue through the afternoon/evening, with even the
potential for ISO strong thunderstorms that could contain gusty
winds and hail. Showers/storms will diminish in coverage
overnight, with the development of ISO showers/storms once again
towards the end of the TAF period early Wednesday afternoon.
MVFR/IFR/LIFR restrictions are possible later tonight into
Wednesday morning with low stratus and fog, particularly
in/near the higher terrain and across the Mid-Ohio Valley.
Mainly VFR returns by the end of the TAF period.

Light and somewhat variable flow is expected through the TAF
period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of flight category changes in
showers/storms could vary. Fog coverage overnight may be more
widespread than currently anticipated.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
EDT 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
In an active week, IFR conditions are possible under convection
Wednesday afternoon/evening, as well as Thursday night through
Friday night, and then again Saturday afternoon.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GW/JMC
NEAR TERM...GW
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...GW