994
FXUS61 KRLX 200823
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
323 AM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Increasing potential of accumulating snow with a system late
this weekend into early next week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Strong thunderstorms remain possible through the early
  morning hours, with locally heavy rainfall also leading to
  flood concerns across portions of northeast Kentucky,
  southeast Ohio, and West Virginia.

- 2) Gusty winds develop across the area today.

- 3) A system brings colder weather and an opportunity for
  accumulating snow late Saturday night into Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Rain showers and thunderstorms are currently progressing through the
area, with additional activity approaching from the south and west
in advance of a cold front. In addition to the ongoing potential for
scattered strong to severe storms, locally heavy rainfall raises
concerns over flooding. Areas at greatest risk of flooding are those
that already received heavy rain yesterday, and portions of the
northeast mountains where additional moisture may be contributed by
snow melt. Therefore, a Flood Watch remains in effect for portions
of northeast Kentucky, southeast Ohio, and West Virginia this
morning.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to taper off from west to
east as a cold front sweeps through the area later this morning,
bringing an end to both the severe and flood threats.


KEY MESSAGE 2...

Gusty winds are expected to accompany a cold front across the area
this morning, with breezy conditions then anticipated to continue as
stronger winds aloft mix down to the surface during the day. The
majority of the area is projected to see gusts of 25 to 40 mph,
though locally stronger gusts may be possible along the higher
ridges of the northeast mountains. Confidence in reaching Wind
Advisory criteria is low enough to forego issuance, though an SPS
may be needed later this morning.


KEY MESSAGE 3...

This weekend, one area of low pressure will be present over the
Great Lakes while another low tracks across the southeast US towards
the Atlantic. This second system is then projected to intensify as
it rides north along the Mid-Atlantic Coast early next week.

Moisture is projected to increase late Saturday night into Sunday,
with an initial mix of rain and snow expected to turn to all snow as
an upper trough ushers colder air into the area Sunday morning.
Although the system begins to pull away from the area late Sunday
night, a feed of moisture from the Great Lakes sustains potential
for light snow showers through Monday.

Highest confidence in receiving four or more inches of snow exists
in and near the WV mountains, with lesser amounts expected to the
south and west. Confidence is also increasing in the need for a
Winter Storm Watch for the northeast mountains and adjacent
foothills.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Although most sites remain VFR at present, periods of MVFR or
worse conditions are expected to develop as rain showers and
thunderstorms continue to progress across the area overnight.
Restrictions will improve in the wake of a cold front, with a
return to area wide VFR anticipated to occur mid to late
morning.

LLWS may be possible overnight, with some strong gusts occurring
in storms. West to southwest winds are expected to strengthen
during the day, with 25-35 kt gusts possible across the area.
Winds should then start to ease after 00Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...


ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of showers,
thunderstorms, and associated restrictions could vary from the
forecast. Timing of improvement to VFR may also vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                        FRI 02/20/26
UTC 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
EST 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    H    M    M    M    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    M    H    H    M    M    H    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    L    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    L    H    M    M    H    M    H    M    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR conditions possible in snow and low ceilings, particularly
across the mountains from Saturday night through Sunday, possibly
Monday too.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flood Watch until 7 AM EST this morning for WVZ005>008-013>020-
     026>032-039-040-517>526.
OH...Flood Watch until 7 AM EST this morning for OHZ086-087.
KY...Flood Watch until 7 AM EST this morning for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...20