207
FXUS61 KRLX 230208
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1008 PM EDT Thu May 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure slowly crosses the region, bringing windy, cool
weather with showers at times. Briefly drier Friday and Saturday,
then precipitation chances return for much of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1005 PM Thursday...

The forecast remains on track.

As of 715 PM Thursday...

The forecast remains on track.

As of 515 PM Thursday...

Updated PoPs to better represent current observations and trends
as some showers were getting a little further south than what we
had in the forecast. Also, took out mention of thunderstorms for
the next several hours as the threat is very minimal, still
cannot rule out a very isolated one, but the probability is
very low at this time. Other than updating the aviation forecast
by adding in the latest guidance to winds, sky condition and
cloud base heights, the forecast remains on track and no
additional changes were needed at this time.

As of 132 PM Thursday...

Upper-level low pressure over the Great Lakes with waves of
shortwave energy traveling along the base of the trough
continues to bring numerous clouds and showers across the area
today. Intermittent showers will continue this evening before
gradually tapering off overnight. The upper- level low will lift
farther to the northeast Friday, which will allow for some low-
level dry air to move back into portions of our area, resulting
in some clearing.

West to northwest winds will remain gusty overnight, especially
across the higher elevations, with occasional gusts 20-30 mph.
This will prevent any fog from developing overnight, and this
should also prevent frost from developing over the higher
ridges. Chilly temperatures are expected overnight with lows
dropping into the middle 30s over the higher ridges and the
lower to middle 40s in the lowlands.

Friday should feature a mixture of clouds and some sunshine as
drier air works back into the region, but isolated showers will
still remain possible over the northeast mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 110 PM Thursday...

Light rain showers will still possible across the northeast
mountains on Friday night, under west northwest flow aloft. Showers
slowly taper off into early Saturday morning. The rest of the area
will remain dry as a surface high pressure builds from the northwest
Friday night into Saturday. This high pressure will provide dry
weather for the most part for Saturday through Sunday.

Temperatures will remain below normal with a slight warm up through
the weekend.  High temperatures for Friday should range from the 60s
across the lowlands, into the mid 40s northeast mountains.
Temperatures through the weekend will be about 5 degrees warmer, but
still below normal. Highs for the weekend should reach the upper 60s
across the lowlands, ranging into the lower 50s northeast mountains.

Low temperatures will remain below normal through this period.
Generally be in the 40s across the lowlands, ranging into the mid
30s northeast mountains under mostly clear skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 110 PM Thursday...

Guidance suggests a southern stream low pressure system moving from
the KY/TN valley, east northeast as it slightly deepens overhead of
our area by Tuesday. There are timing differences among models
on the arrival of such surface low, and precipitation associated
with it. Only the GFS model brings the precipitation as early
as Sunday night mainly across the extreme southern WV and SW VA.
Models show a lull during Sunday night and Monday morning, with
only another model suggesting precipitation across SW VA and
southern WV by Monday morning. Kept rain showers for Sunday
through Monday night per lack of instability under H500 clean
zonal flow. Increased PoPs areawide toward Tuesday, allowing
thunderstorms in the forecast across SW VA and southern WV as
the low pressure center moves overhead providing sufficient
forcing. Another system pivots over the Great Lakes and prolongs
unsettled conditions through the end of the long term forecast
period.

Temperatures are likely to remain below normal much of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 720 PM Thursday...

Shower potential will continue into the night, but will wane by
the early morning hours and also be confined to just the
northeast mountains, possibly affecting CKB/EKN. No
restrictions to VIS are expected other than some MVFR near
CRW/HTS over the next few hours due to shower activity. No fog
is expected due to elevated surface flow and extensive cloud
coverage. MVFR CIGs will hover around the sites until the mid to
late morning at which point they should lift and scatter out
across most sites. EKN may hang on to some MVFR CIGs through
the morning, but thereafter VFR will dominate area-wide. Winds
will stay out of the northwest and relax a bit for the overnight
but will intensify some for tomorrow afternoon to where gusts
up to 20kts cannot be ruled out.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR CIGs may carry into the early afternoon
at EKN.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            FRI 05/23/25
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Monday, mainly across
the south.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMC
NEAR TERM...JZ/JMC
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JZ