410
FXUS61 KRLX 121736
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
136 PM EDT Tue Aug 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot with showers and storms mainly south and in the mountains
today. Showers and storms more likely as disturbances cross
overnight through Wednesday, then more diurnal into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 130 PM Tuesday...

A hot day on tap today with surface high pressure off to the east,
and building upper ridge over area. Many locations will top out in
the lower 90s today, and that combined with dew points in the upper
60s/lower 70s will result in apparent temperatures in the upper 90s
today.  An increase in moisture across the area during the period
will allow for showers/storms at times, mainly during peak heating
hours, although shortwaves traversing the area will also aid in
development. Satellite estimates of PW Tuesday afternoon show a
large area of close to 2 inch PW just off to the south and west,
with this higher moisture content air progged to move into our area
by later this evening/tonight. This, with an approaching frontal
boundary for Wednesday, along with multiple waves in the flow, will
allow for more widespread thunderstorm activity, with the potential
for heavy rain taking hold across the area Wednesday, possibly even
as early as dawn Wednesday, with heaviest rains looking to be
possible across southwest VA and the southern coal fields. A
localized flooding risk is possible with these storms. However, due
to antecedent dry conditions, elected not to issue a flood watch.
WPC has however elected to put the aforementioned areas into a
slight risk for excessive.




&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 PM Tuesday...

Showers and storms will continue across the area on Thursday with
the boundary lingering over the area, and shortwaves traversing the
area. The front will lift back north on Friday, with heat and
humidity building across the area again. Less convection is expected
on Friday, and overall, should be relatively diurnal in nature. As
with previous days, storms will overall be slow to move, and have
the potential for heavy downpours.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 130 PM Tuesday...

Chances for showers and storms continue across the area in the
extended period, mainly diurnal in nature. Storms will contain heavy
downpours, and overall be slow to move in the light flow regime.
Localized flooding will be possible, but widespread issues are not
anticipated.  In addition, chances for severe weather look to be
relatively low during the period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 130 PM Tuesday...

Scattered showers and storms expected through 03Z Wednesday,
mainly across southwest VA, southern WV and the mountains,
although isolated storms possible elsewhere. Expect brief IFR
conditions in vicinity of storms due to heavy rainfall.

After 03Z, there should be a bit of a lull in the thunderstorm
activity, however, patchy fog cannot be ruled out, particularly
in any areas that receive rain Tuesday afternoon/evening.

In addition, widespread MVFR and local IFR ceilings are
forecast to take hold across the area, particularly after 09Z
and linger for much of the remainder of the TAF period. In
addition, showers and storms should ramp back up again,
particularly after 06-09Z Wednesday, with the heaviest of storms
expected across southwest Virginia and southern WV. IFR or
worse conditions will be possible in vicinity of storms.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Forecast adjustments and amendments may be
needed for thunderstorms this afternoon, especially in the
mountains. Confidence in the overall forecast decreases
overnight tonight, with the possibility of heavy showers and
thunderstorms, low ceilings, and fog.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR conditions are possible in afternoon thunderstorms the rest
of the work week, especially on Wednesday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...SL