075
FXUS61 KRLX 040914
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
514 AM EDT Mon May 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to previous forecast thinking.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Isolated showers and storms today, with a better chance for rain
expected mid week with the approach of a front and several waves of
low pressure.

2) Cooler and drier for Friday, with an additional disturbance
expected Friday night into Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

A shortwave and strengthening LLJ will affect the area, before
diminishing later this morning. Relatively dry air observed in lower
levels on area soundings and surface observations, indicates
precipitation should overall be very light and spotty in nature,
with many areas just experiencing an increase in cloud cover, or
sprinkles at best.

As we progress throughout the day today, southwesterly flow will be
on the increase, with increasing warmth, moisture and instability
expected. This will result in the possibility for isolated showers
and storms, particularly this afternoon and evening during peak
heating. Severe is not anticipated, and any convection should
generally die off shortly after sunset.

Temperatures will warm a few more degrees on Tuesday, as
southwesterly winds continue to strengthen across the area out ahead
of an approaching cold front. Anomalously high moisture content air
will surge into the region by Tuesday night into Wednesday, with PW
values progged to top out at at least 1.3 inches.

Frontal boundary will move into the area Tuesday night through
Wednesday night, with a low moving along the front through the area.
Moderate to heavy rain can be expected during this period, with most
areas generally expected to get at least half an inch to three
quarters of an inch through Wednesday night. This will be followed
by a secondary wave on Thursday, with an additional quarter to three
quarters of an inch expected, mainly east of the Ohio River.
However, there is greater uncertainty during this time period of how
much rain will affect the area, and will depend on how far south and
east the aforementioned front is able to make it out of our area.

At this point WPC has parts of the area outlined in a marginal risk
for excessive rainfall. Thinking overall impacts should be somewhat
limited, due to antecedent dry conditions, and greening of
vegetation across the majority of the area.


KEY MESSAGE 2...

The secondary low will gradually exit off to the east later in the
day Thursday, with a brief period of drier conditions, and clearing
taking hold for early Friday as high pressure nudges in from the
west. Although it will be much cooler, a widespread frost/freeze is
not anticipated at this time, but also can`t be completely ruled
out. Will depend on clearing and how quickly winds can slacken
across the area.

An additional disturbance will affect the area later Friday into
Saturday, with additional showers.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions expected for the period. However,
scattered showers and storms have formed just to the west of the
area, and may affect western terminals through 16Z, including
sites KHTS, with a brief MVFR restriction possible.


Otherwise, southwesterly winds, with occasional gusts in the
teens to lower 20 kts, particularly after 12Z. Isolated showers
and storms will refire this afternoon and evening after morning
convection across the west, mainly after 18Z, and mainly across
the north and east including sites KPKB, KCKB and KEKN, with
brief/local MVFR conditions possible, with convection
dissipating shortly after 00Z. Coverage and confidence in
convection is low, but did include VCTS in TAF`s most likely to
experience convection at this time.

Overnight Monday night, expect LLWS to develop across the
region, and have coded into the TAF.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Coverage of showers and storms this morning
across the west, and this afternoon and evening across the
northeast may be greater than currently anticipated.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EDT 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR possible in heavier rain/storms late Tuesday into Thursday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SL
AVIATION...SL