519
FXUS61 KRLX 051817
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
217 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Daily shower and storm chances return today in the midst of a
slow moving cold front approaching. Active weather persists into
the weekend as the front stalls over the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 215 PM Thursday...

Key Points:

 * An Air Quality Alert has been issued for the state of West
   Virginia through 10 PM this evening.

 * A sluggishly moving cold front yields episodic rounds of
   showers and storms starting today and into the weekend.

After a slew of dry weather ruling the roost for the start of
the week, a cold front will begin to drive showers and storms
into the area today. Already seeing that develop this afternoon
on radar with agitated cumulus forming a scattered cluster of
activity in our northeast Kentucky and southeast Ohio counties.
Another cluster of diurnally driven showers and storms within
our forecast area will be up along the ridges this afternoon and
evening in response to southeast flow and nearby low pressure of
tropical descent churning over the Carolinas. Both clusters of
activity will diminish late tonight with the loss of daytime
heating, with precipitation chances then retreating back to the
north and west closer to where the cold front will be
positioned.

Upper level ridging will continue to flatten aloft overnight,
with the cold front able to achieve further eastward progression
through the Ohio Valley. The boundary is progged to reach just
outside the western fringes of our forecast area Friday morning
and will likely set up shop for the rest of the near term
period. This will spread showers and afternoon thunderstorms
across a wider area on Friday, with some storms capable of
producing locally damaging wind gusts and heavy downpours. An
impulse of moisture riding along the southern edge of the front
will be on the verge of reaching our area late Friday evening,
imposing an extension for precipitation into the overnight hours
and into the start of the weekend.

In the midst of the encroaching cold front, efficient southerly
flow will encourage an influx of moisture into the area today,
causing humidity levels to rise alongside unseasonably warmer
temperatures. An Air Quality Alert has been issued for the state
of West Virginia through 10 PM this evening due to the muggy
conditions, coupled with lingering Canadian wildfire smoke.
Afternoon high temperatures on Friday are anticipated to be a
few degrees lower than the past several days, only reaching the
low 80s across the lowlands and the 70s along the spine of the
Appalachians.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 215 PM Thursday...

Key Points:
* Unsettled through the weekend.
* Heavy downpours and a few severe storms possible on Saturday.

A front slowly slides into the area from the northwest Friday night
and then lingers overhead through Saturday. Widespread showers and
storms are expected to develop in the moisture rich environment
accompanying the front, with potential for isolated severe storms as
instability peaks during the afternoon and evening. Damaging winds
are the main concern for any severe storms. Localized flash flooding
could also occur due to heavy rain in thunderstorms, particularly in
locations impacted by previous rounds of storms.

Sunday remains active as the arrival of a shortwave and surface low
prompt additional chances for showers and thunderstorms during the
day.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 215 PM Thursday...

Key Points:
* Upper trough maintains precipitation chances early next week.
* Briefly drier for much of the area mid week.

An upper level trough ushers a cold front across the area Monday and
Tuesday, then a period of drier conditions is possible for much of
the area as weak high pressure moves in behind the retreating trough
mid week. Precipitation chances redevelop towards the end of the
week as moisture spreads north in advance of another boundary.

Temperatures should remain near to normal much of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 215 PM Thursday...

After a slew of dry weather days, the return of showers and
thunderstorms arrives today ahead of a slow moving cold front.
Bubbling cumulus this afternoon will result in isolated to
scattered activity out ahead of the main line of convection,
settled along the boundary back in Ohio and Indiana. A few
batches of precipitation could move into our western terminals
this afternoon, but did not have strong enough confidence that
they would see direct impacts in visibility so held off on using
tempos with this issuance.

Today`s storm activity will be primarily diurnally driven, with
precipitation chances then retreating back towards the frontal
boundary. The front itself will slip eastward on Friday, and is
projected to drape through the lower Ohio Valley. This eastward
progression will yield sub-VFR ceilings stretching into the
western flank of the forecast area Friday morning before daytime
mixing forces bases to rise slightly for the rest of the period.
Additional shower and storm chances, more abundant in nature
compared to this afternoon, will be present on Friday afternoon
as the front scoots closer to the region.

Winds will remain light and primarily out of the south/southwest
through the period out ahead of the frontal passage.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR conditions at times in showers and thunderstorms through
Monday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Air Quality Alert until 10 PM EDT this evening for WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>034-039-040-515>526.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEK/20
NEAR TERM...MEK
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM...20
AVIATION...MEK