401
FXUS61 KRLX 231042
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
642 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front crosses this weekend, bringing a better chance for
showers and thunderstorms. Broad surface high pressure builds
behind the front providing a cooler and mainly dry next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 630 AM Saturday...

River valley fog will quickly dissipate early this morning.
Southwest flow will advect needed moisture to support afternoon
driven convection through this evening. Rest of forecast remains
on track.

As of 136 AM Saturday...

High pressure extending west from the Mid Atlantic into West
Virginia slides off the east coast today, loosing its influence over
the local area. Meanwhile, a cold front approaches from the west.
This pattern will increase moisture under southwest flow, with PWATs
reaching 2 inches and dewpoints in the lower 70s by this afternoon.
SBCAPE exceeding 2600 J/kg under low deep layered shear will
allow for diurnal-driven slow-moving showers and thunderstorms.
Localized flash flooding may result with the stronger/slow-
moving storms. WPC maintains a Marginal risk for excessive
rainfall across the southern WV and VA coalfields.

Latest CAMs show convection developing along and east of the OH
River by late afternoon into the evening hours. NBM suggests 20-30
percent PoPs across portions of SE OH and northern WV, and 50 to 80
percent across NE KY and portions of central and southern WV.

With the cold front still west of the area, lingering showers or
storms are possible tonight, more numerous along the eastern
mountains and western foothills.

High temperatures this afternoon should reach the upper 80s across
the lowlands, ranging into the lower 70s across the northeast
mountains. For lows tonight, dewpoints in the upper 60s will provide
very muggy conditions, with temperatures ranging from the upper 60s
lowlands, into the upper 50s northeast mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 136 AM Saturday...

The chance for showers and storms continues Sunday as a cold
front pushes slowly east across the area. The environment will
be slightly less unstable than Saturday. The highest probability
for precipitation fall along and near the eastern mountains
with a 60-70 percent. NBM suggest 30-50 percent PoPs across the
lowlands for Sunday. Localized flash flooding threat will
continue mainly along the eastern mountains where WPC maintains
a marginal risk for excessive rainfall for Sunday.

A drier airmass filters in behind the front Sunday night into the
beginning of next week.

High temperatures on Sunday will be in the low/mid 80s across the
lowlands, with upper 60s and 70s in the mountains. Lows will be in
the 50s area-wide Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 136 AM Saturday...

Broad surface high pressure over the Mid-west, extending southeast
into the OH valley and WV, will keep very dry conditions and
comfortable temperatures for most part of the week.

High temperatures will generally be in the 70s across the lowlands,
with upper 50s and 60s across the mountains, with Tuesday currently
expected to be the coolest day.

Lows will range from the mid 40s to mid 50s in the lowlands,
with upper 30s and 40s in the mountains. River valley fog is
expected each night. Slightly warmer temperatures can be
expected on Wednesday, but particularly by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 630 AM Saturday...

Satellite imagery shows river valley fog and patchy low stratus
across the area. METARs show IFR conditions at HTS, PKB, and in
the vicinity of CRW. Expect dense fog to lift to VFR by 13-14Z.

Diurnal-driven convection is anticipated this afternoon and
evening, as a cold front approaches from the west. An unstable
environment and moisture advection will allow for slow-moving showers
and thunderstorms to develop this afternoon and evening. Coded
PROB30 groups in storms at most terminals roughly from 19Z to
23Z, following the latest CAMs guidance.

Once convection diminishes in intensity and coverage tonight,
areas of fog may develop mainly over areas that received rain
today. IFR/LIFR conditions are anticipated under dense fog. Any
fog will quickly dissipate by 13-14Z Sunday morning.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Thunderstorms may not hit directly all of
our terminals this afternoon. Timing and extend of dense fog
tonight may vary from forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SAT 08/23/25
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    L    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    L    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
Brief IFR possible in showers/thunderstorms through Sunday.
IFR possible in river valley fog each morning beginning on
Monday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...ARJ