627
FXUS61 KRLX 050141
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
941 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure promotes dry, but hot weather through the
holiday weekend. A weak cold front brings back the chance
for showers and thunderstorms to begin the new work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
As of 810 PM Friday...

The few ISO showers across the southern coalfields and western
WV have dissipated, with any lingering Cu field quickly
following suit. This gives way to dry/warm overnight amid
mostly clear skies. Lows will generally be in the low/mids 60s
across the lowlands, with mid 50s to low 60s across the
mountains. Given a more/less persistence pattern, expect another
round of fairly widespread river valley fog to develop
overnight across much of the area, given the mostly clear skies
and H925 flow generally 5-10 kts or less. Some locally dense
fog is possible across the deeper river valleys of VA/WV. The
rest of the forecast remains on track.

As of 530 PM Friday...

Added ISO showers into the forecast for a few hours this
evening across the southern coal fields where a SCT towering Cu
field has resulted in a few light showers. A highly isolated
brief shower this evening cannot entirely be ruled out in the
CRW/HTS metros and all points south, but overall, the
probability of occurrence is lower for the aforementioned areas,
generally 5-10%. The rest of the forecast remains on track.

As of 220 PM Friday...

High pressure drifts east of the area at the surface tonight
and Saturday while building in in the mid and upper levels. This
promotes continued mainly dry weather with afternoon cumulus
fields and early morning valley fog. In collaboration with
neighbors to the east, did add an isolated mountain shower this
afternoon given the somewhat agitated cumulus field there per
the elevated heat source effect and weak ridgetop convergence.

A mid level inversion associated with the building heights on
Saturday should preclude diurnal precipitation even in the
mountains.

Return southerly flow around the exiting surface high and the
building mid/upper-level heights promote continuation of the
slight warming trend. However, even with lowland lowland highs
in the mid 90s for Saturday, dew points in the lower 60s should
corral peak heat indices at or below 100 degrees F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 220 PM Friday...

Southerly flow around surface high pressure, and mid/upper-
level high pressure also beginning to shift east of the area,
promote a continuation of mainly dry weather through the
balance of the Holiday weekend, with above normal temperatures.

With lowland highs in the mid 90s over afternoon dew points in
the mid 60s on Sunday, heat indices reach the upper 90s for
much of the lowlands, with a few areas, mainly urban spots,
reaching as high as the lower 100s. However, dew points just a
bit lower beneath the same temperatures may keep heat indices at
or below 100 Sunday afternoon. The return of at least low level
moisture around the back side of the high will make for higher
dew points, in the mid to upper 60s, Sunday night, versus lower
to mid 60s Saturday night, making for a somewhat muggier feel.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 220 PM Friday...

The new work week marks a transition to a more active and
unsettled weather pattern, as the dominant ridge of high
pressure from the weekend will be replaced by more zonal, west-
to-east mid/upper level-flow. This will allow several embedded
shortwave troughs to traverse while pushing a weak cold front
toward, into, and even through the area for a time.

As the cold front initially approaches the area on Monday, the
chance for showers and thunderstorms increases, especially
during the afternoon and evening, as daytime heating
destabilizes the atmosphere. Thunderstorms could be heavy, but
not especially flow, amid a high CAPE and low flow/shear
environment.

Showers and thunderstorms may become strictly diurnal on Tuesday
and Wednesday if the cold front is able to push through the
region on Tuesday, bringing slightly less hot and less humid
air in its wake.

The next short wave trough will then kink the front back
northward later next week, with the slightly increased mainly
but not strictly diurnal chance for showers and thunderstorms.

Lowland highs in the low to mid 90s and surface dew points up
around 70s, could get heat indices at least into the lower 100s
on Monday. After that, the heat wave, like the last one, only
gradually fades amid the presence of the front, and associated
mid/upper-level disturbances.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 825 PM Friday...

Dry weather is expected through the TAF period (until 00Z
Sunday). Mostly clear skies tonight will facilitate river valley
fog development, with BR or FG coded into all TAFs except CKB.
This is mostly a persistence forecast, with VLIFR dense fog
coded up for EKN, and MVFR mist coded up for HTS and PKB, for
roughly the 07-12Z timeframe. While restrictions with BR are not
currently coded into the TAFs at BKW/CRW, brief MVFR cannot be
ruled out. Any fog that does develop lifts/dissipates by ~12Z,
with just a FEW/SCT 040-060 fair weather Cu field developing
during the late morning and early afternoon.

Surface flow will go calm across much of the area overnight,
with light south/southeast flow developing on Saturday during
the day.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium tonight, high Saturday.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, location, and intensity of fog
formation later tonight could vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            SAT 07/05/25
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    M

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
IFR conditions possible in river valley fog Sunday/Monday
mornings, primarily at EKN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 940 PM Friday...

It was a very warm June across the NWS Charleston forecast
area. Mean temperatures for the month of June 2025 were
generally 2 to 4 degrees above normal. This translated into
four official NWS Charleston climate locations making the top
10 in terms of their warmest mean June temperatures on record.
Precipitation totals varied significantly across the forecast
area, with some locations below normal, while others were above
normal.

Listed below are the locations, ranks, and observed values of
the top tens that were set.

          June 2025 Top Tens Set (Mean Temperature)
-------------------------------------------------------------
  Location           Top 10 Rank           Observed Value
-------------------------------------------------------------
- Elkins, WV       : 2nd Warmest        -> 71.6 F
- Beckley, WV      : 3rd Warmest        -> 71.4 F
- Clarksburg, WV   : 3rd Warmest        -> 74.0 F
- Huntington, WV   : 7th Warmest        -> 76.9 F
-------------------------------------------------------------

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRM/GW
NEAR TERM...TRM/GW
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...GW
CLIMATE...GW