668
FXUS61 KRLX 121513
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1013 AM EST Wed Nov 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Windy today. Mostly dry through Friday. Next chances for rain
will be this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1010 AM Wednesday...

Have issued a Wind Advisory through this afternoon for the
higher elevations of the northern West Virginia mountains. As
the mixing height rises today, it will tap into higher winds
and be able to mix those to the ground.


As of 150 AM Wednesday...

High pressure to our south will remain an influence on our
region for next 24 hours with drier weather in store. A warm
front crosses today though with a 500 mb trough hovering aloft.
Southwesterly winds will be gusty today with gusts between 25
and 45 mph possible today. Did not opt for a wind advisory
since gusts are borderline just under criteria, plus warm-air
advection has a habit of being underwhelming and models over
boast the severity. It may be an SPS is hoisted across the
higher ridges of Pocahontas and Randolph today. A few models
suggest that a sprinkle or a flurry may occur in the
northeastern mountain`s higher ridges, but surface high pressure
may ultimately prevent this so opted to leave it out of the
forecast.

Temperatures will be much warmer than yesterday thanks to this
warm front with the lowlands reaching the mid to upper 50s in
spots. Would not be surprised if a few locations along The Ohio
River in the Tri-State Area reach 60F. The mountains of course
will be a bit cooler ranging from the mid 30s to the lower 50s.
Lows Wednesday night will be on the colder side with 20s and
30s expected area wide as a quick, but dry cold front moves
through.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 320 AM Wednesday...

Dry weather persists Thursday and gusty winds will be decreasing
gradually through the morning and afternoon. A shallow warm
sector will only allow for high temperatures to remain in the
50s across the lowlands. The mountains will be in the 30s and
40s.

Temperatures will be a bit warmer Friday with much of the
lowlands, particularly the Tri-State Area, seeing temperatures
reach the 60s and the higher elevations of the mountains hitting
the 40s. The first part of Friday will be mostly dry, but a
front is progged to move up from the Deep South during the day.
Chances for rain return Friday afternoon and overnight spreading
out from southwest to northeast. Any rainfall that may occur
would more than likely be overnight and amounts would be light.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 330 AM Wednesday...

The aforementioned front will lift north as a warm front during
the day Saturday. Chances for rain will remain over the area
this weekend due to this feature and a cold front that will
pass through Saturday night into Sunday. Temperatures will be
above normal on Saturday and Sunday.

Monday looks to be drier and a bit cooler (temperatures around
normal) though as a reinforcing cold front moves through.
However, precipitation may move back in Tuesday or Wednesday
with another front approaching from the south.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 550 AM Wednesday...

VFR conditions are expected through the period as high pressure
continues moving in promoting drier weather. A passing
disturbance will create gusty winds today and tonight,
especially across the higher terrain where gusts between 25 and
40 knots are possible.

A few models suggest that some MVFR cigs may move in across the
northeast this afternoon and evening. This would affect CKB and
EKN, but central guidance does not commit to this and keeps
conditions VFR, so left this out of the TAFs.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR CIGs could affect CKB/EKN this
afternoon/evening when not in the forecast.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EST 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions are in the forecast.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Wind Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for WVZ523-526.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LTC
NEAR TERM...RPY/LTC
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...LTC