412
FXUS61 KRLX 011809
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
209 PM EDT Fri Aug 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler, yet comfortable temperatures and drier weather move in
this weekend in the wake of a cold front. Gradual warm up and
return of humidity occurs next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1220 PM Friday...

A cold front remains to our south with a lee trough just to our
east. Lingering low-level moisture and cool northwest to
northeaster flow will keep maritime low cloud cover over much
of the area today. NAM12 soundings suggest pockets of drizzle
will occur at multiple locations until late afternoon. Showers
and thunderstorms could be possible across the southern
mountains of West Virginia and southwest Virginia as a CAPE
boundary of 1,000-1,500 J/Kg remains along our border with
Blacksburg`s forecast area.

Not expecting severe weather in our area today, but localized flash
flooding is possible across the aforementioned areas as precipitable
water nears 1.7 inches and lack of proper steering aloft leads
to instances of training heavy rainfall. There is a marginal
risk for excessive rainfall across our southwestern Virginia
counties as well as McDowell, Wyoming, Raleigh and Fayette
counties in West Virginia. A slight risk remains just to the
east of these counties.

Temperatures will be much cooler today, but still comfortable
with the cold front`s passage. Cloud cover will help to moderate
temperatures and dew points will remain in the upper 50s and 60s
to provide a less oppressive air mass. High temperatures will be
in the 70s to lower 80s across the lowlands, where the later
will mostly remain across our Ohio counties and along the Ohio
River. These areas will likely see the cloud deck erode going
into the afternoon allowing for warmer temperatures. Meanwhile,
the mountains will remain in the 60s to the mid 70s.

Temperatures tonight will drop back into the 50s to the lower
60s. Low stratus and areas of patchy valley fog will be likely
due to trapped moisture near the surface. Saturday will showcase
decreasing cloud cover in the afternoon with highs in the upper
70s to lower 80s across the lowlands. Chances for afternoon
showers and thunderstorms exist across the southern coalfields
and mountains of West Virginia and southwest Virginia where
some instability will remain in place. Overall, high pressure
will be taking hold of the region with drier weather expected
for most locations.

The emergence of a slight haze is possible late Saturday with
Canadian wildfire smoke being suspended aloft, but impacts to
air quality and visibility are not expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1240 PM Friday...

Another night/morning of valley fog and cooler than normal
temperatures is expected Saturday into Sunday with high pressure
and radiational cooling in full control. Some chances exist once
again for afternoon thunderstorms across Kentucky, southern West
Virginia, and southwest Virginia; largely anticipating drier
weather for most though under the bubble of high pressure.

High temperatures will be a bit warmer than previous days with
mostly clear skies. The lowlands will range from the upper 70s
to mid 80s while the mountains will stay in the mid 60s to the
upper 70s. Skies could be hazy at times with smoke aloft, but no
impacts are expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1255 PM Friday...

Continued drier weather spell will saunter into Monday with the
high parking to our northeast. An inverted trough embedded in the
ridge and ahead of a disturbance to our west will increase
precipitation chances by Tuesday afternoon and through midweek.
The main disturbance will remain to our west though, so not
anticipating any activity greater than garden-variety showers
and thunderstorms at this time. Instances of valley fog possible
each morning, especially with any afternoon rainfall.

Warming trend continues into Monday and will last through the
week as warmer southeasterly flow moves in. Highs could reach
the upper 80s to lower 90s by Friday. Humidity will also be
returning too with the warmer, moist flow.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 210 PM Friday...

Post-frontal, low-level cloud cover will remain across a bulk
of the area with MVFR conditions across the lowlands and IFR or
lower spanning the mountains. VFR will take hold this afternoon
at sites farther west such as HTS and PKB, maybe even CRW.
Showers and thunderstorms are possible across the southern
mountains of WV and VA into the evening, but severe weather is
not anticipated.

Low stratus development and patchy fog will be likely overnight
with lingering low-level moisture. IFR or lower conditions will
accompany any low clouds or valley fog. VFR will resume by
~13-14z Saturday.

Winds will be light and remain NNW to NNE today and tonight.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR or IFR conditions may remain for a
longer period of time than forecasted due to stubborn low
ceilings. Timing, location, and intensity of fog and low stratus
tonight may vary.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
EDT 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
Some patchy valley fog will be possible Sunday and Monday
mornings.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LTC
NEAR TERM...LTC
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...LTC