370
FXUS61 KRLX 200000
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
800 PM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain and thunderstorms expected in the vicinity of a front this
afternoon and evening. A cold front pushes through Monday.
Another system arrives late in the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 750 PM Saturday...

Tweaked pops a bit as storms are racing eastward quicker than
previously forecast. Otherwise, no changes were necessary.

As of 130 PM Saturday...

Key Point:

* Isolated strong to severe storms possible late this
  afternoon/evening across SE OH and NW WV.

Southwesterly flow in an expansive warm sector covering most of the
east coast has allow surface temperatures to rise in the upper
70s/lower 80s across the lower elevations early this afternoon with
an eventual destination in the mid to upper 80s later this
afternoon. At this hour, the warm sector remains largely capped due
to relatively dry low level conditions, but moisture pooling ahead
of a cold front draped over Central Ohio will continue to advect
eastward as the front slowly approaches late this afternoon into
this evening. This should yield a narrow corridor of MLCAPE 1000-
1500J/kg with minimal capping across SE OH into NW WV heading into
the late afternoon/evening hours amid strong deep layer and near
surface kinematic fields supportive of both updraft/downdraft
separation and storm rotation. Think storms will remain pretty well
rooted to this ribbon of enhanced moisture given storm motions that
roughly parallel it and increasingly hostile conditions for
sustaining storms away from the enhanced pool of surface moisture.
Storm mode should begin as isolated supercells, but given storm
motions and increasing westerly flow this evening this could turn
into more of a broken line with embedded super-cellular structures.
The primary threat will be damaging wind gusts and marginally severe
hail. Fairly wide surface dew point depressions should limit the
overall meso-cyclonic tornado risk, although it will not be zero,
with storm scale interaction or a brief window as the LLJ begins to
strengthen before storms become rooted aloft this evening.

Any lingering activity becomes increasingly sparse overnight before
completely dissipating early Sunday morning.

A nebulous frontal zone is expected to be draped across our area by
Sunday morning. Guidance has come into a little better alignment
positioning this feature across our far south around daybreak, and
slowly starting to lift back to the north late morning into the
afternoon as southerly flow begins to increase ahead of the next
system slated for Monday. As far as sensible weather impacts, they
will be relatively minimal - perhaps a few showers near the
mountains and a decent gradient in afternoon highs depending on how
far it makes it back to the north before daytime heating fades.
Central guidance generally takes it just north of the Metro Valley
by Sunday afternoon with highs in the lower to mid 80s south of the
boundary and mid to upper 70s north of it - around 10 to 15 degrees
above normal values for late April.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 155 PM Saturday...

Generally dry but mild conditions can be expected Sunday night with
a southerly wind flow in advance of an approaching cold front. The
cold front will push through on Monday into Monday night, providing
a band of showers and thunderstorms. The front should be south of
the area by Tuesday morning, but depending on how far south the
front pushes, some showers could linger over southern and eastern
West Virginia and southwestern Virginia.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1205 PM Saturday...

A cold front should be located south of the area by Tuesday
morning. Models do vary on how far south the front pushes, and
hence, if enough moisture remains over southern and eastern
West Virginia and southwest Virginia for some showers to develop
on Tuesday and Wednesday. The moisture will eventually return
northward later in the work week as a southerly flow develops.
There are some timing differences between the models with this
moisture return but this will allow for chances of
precipitation throughout the area either Thursday or Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 755 PM Saturday...

Mainly VFR conditions this evening, although isolated storms
across the far north, will create brief IFR conditions and the
potential for strong gusty winds through 03Z. KCKB may be
affected by these storms.

Otherwise, gusty westerly winds, with gusts in the 20 kt range
should generally become light after 02-04Z.

Overnight, local/areas of MVFR stratus or fog are possible,
including at KPKB and KCKB where storms affected/were in
vicinity of terminals. Any fog or stratus should generally lift
by 15Z with a return to VFR conditions with light surface winds.

Isolated showers/storms possible across the northeast mountains
Sunday afternoon and evening.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: More widespread/restrictive stratus and/or
fog may develop tonight than currently forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            SUN 04/20/25
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    M    H

AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
Brief IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms with a cold
front on Monday evening and Monday night.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEK/RPY
NEAR TERM...JP/SL
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...SL