599
FXUS61 KRLX 222335
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
635 PM EST Sat Feb 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Quiet through early next week amid a warming trend. There is a
chance for light precipitation on Tuesday, and then a better
chance for precipitation Wednesday night through Thursday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 520 PM Saturday...

Adjusted up hourly temperatures and dewpoints as clearing spreads
east, allowing for a slightly warmer afternoon before sunset. Warm
advection aloft and surface light southerly winds will provide
warmer dewpoints through tonight. Rest of forecast remains on track.

As of 1220 PM Saturday...

Generally quiet conditions are expected through the near term period
with nothing more than some upper level clouds associated with a mid-
level disturbance transiting the TN Valley this afternoon. Have seen
some virga with this deck occasionally, but given the rather dry and
substantial sub cloud layer, do not anticipate any precipitation
reaching the ground.

Slightly less dry surface dew points should yield a little less
effective radiational cooling tonight, with lows generally 5 to 10
degrees warmer than this morning. A modest warming trend continues
on Sunday with highs across the lower elevations in the lower to mid
40s amidst mostly clear skies.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 PM Saturday...

Dry air associated with remnant arctic high pressure rules the
roost this period, as the high sits over the southeast and
middle Atlantic states, keeping Gulf and Atlantic moisture at
bay. As a result, warm advection low-level flow beneath west to
northwest mid/upper-level flow does not moisten up the
atmosphere much, and a mid/upper-level short wave trough
crossing Tuesday may barely be able to squeeze out a shower
across northern portions of the area, with the small
probability of a snow shower over the higher mountainous
terrain.

The system pulls out Tuesday evening without much of a cold
frontal passage, allowing high pressure to build back in by dawn
Wednesday. Low cloud to begin Tuesday night give way to some
increase in high cloud toward dawn Wednesday.

Lowered lows from central guidance in the normally colder spots
Sunday night, even with patchy mid/high cloud. While cold,
Sunday night will not be as cold as recent nights or even
tonight, and the warming trend in general continues. Radiative
cooling under high pressure Tuesday night, again amid some
cloud, stunts the warming trend on lows temporarily.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 245 PM Saturday...

High pressure right over the forecast area Wednesday morning
sets up a dry Wednesday, with a chilly morning followed by a
milder afternoon, as the warming trend starting this weekend
resumes.

A southern stream short wave trough crosses late Wednesday night
through Thursday. It may be able to tap a bit more moisture than
its early week predecessor. However, even as high pressure to
the south and east weakens and exits, the southern stream system
will still not be able to tap much Gulf or Atlantic moisture, as
low level flow beneath it remains light. While precipitation
may be more widepsread compared with Tuesday, amounts will be
light.

The chance for thunder with this system appears quite small,
given a morning frontal passage and a dearth of moisture, as
suggested by surface dew points only climbing into the mid 40s
ahead of it. The system will be able to pull a cold front
through the area Thursday morning, and snow showers are
possible, at least in the mountains, Thursday night, before
precipitation ends on Friday.

High pressure of Pacific origin pays a brief visit Friday
afternoon. A northern stream mid/upper-level short wave trough
then drives a cold front at least into the area on Saturday,
with the chance for showers, possibly snow showers across the
higher mountainous terrain.

After the warming trend to start the long term period,
temperatures drop back to normal to end the work week amid air
of Pacific origin behind the cold front, but then climb back
above normal ahead of the next cold front on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 635 PM Saturday...

Widespread VFR conditions are anticipated across most terminals
tonight under light southern winds. Periods of SCT-BKW upper
level clouds will be possible through Sunday morning. Probabilistic
guidance indicate 80-90% of sky cover along the northeast mountains
developing overnight.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
EST 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
IFR conditions are possible in precipitation by the middle of
next week.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRM/JP
NEAR TERM...ARJ/JP
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...ARJ