323
FXUS61 KRLX 171733
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
133 PM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A tropically influenced airmass remains over the region with
numerous weak disturbances passing through. Locally heavy
showers and storms are possible each afternoon into next week.
As soils become increasingly compromised with locally heavy
rainfall, flash flooding will progressively become more likely
with additional heavy rain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 120 PM Thursday...

Key Messages:

* A quasi-stationary frontal boundary draped across the Ohio Valley
  and Central Appalachians will remain the focus for daily shower
  and thunderstorm development through the weekend

* Continued locally heavy rain atop of increasingly locally
  compromised soils could lead to flash flooding, some locally
  significant

* Wet microbursts may produce locally damaging wind gusts, but
  widespread severe weather is not expected

* A brief respite from the tropically influenced airmass is possible
  early next week

A mid-level ridge anchored over the southeast US and slowly
approaching cold frontal boundary currently extending from near CLE
to STL are the dominant synoptic features affecting the region
through the near term period. Along and of the front, precipitable
water values near 2 inches are forecast in-line with 12Z observed
upstream upper air soundings while values north slowly taper off,
but remain above 75th percentile values for this time of the year.

Although mid-level lapse rates remain rather paltry (~5.5C/km)
typical of a tropically influenced airmass, ample low level moisture
and surface heating should yield 1000-2500J/kg MLCAPE by peak
heating this afternoon. With deep-layer shear forecast to remain
relatively weak (15-25KTs), the convective mode will favor
loosely organized multicell clusters. Given the degree of
instability and moisture, any storm will be capable of producing
torrential rainfall with a few instances of gusty winds
associated with wet microbursts. While storms will be moving
along at 20-25 mph, surface convergence along the aforementioned
frontal boundary will begin to lay out more west to east across
our area by early this evening, slowly sinking south through
the night. This boundary should provide a focusing mechanism for
storms which would strongly suggest some west to east training
potential. Some areas across our north have seen significant
precipitation over the last several days with 3hr flash flood
guidance as low as 1.2 inches. Farther south precipitation has
been much more spotty with 3hr guidance generally in excess of 2
inches.

Convection is expected to wane after sunset with the loss of diurnal
heating. However, the stalling front may continue to provide enough
forcing to maintain scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
overnight, continuing the localized heavy rain threat. A flash flood
watch remains in effect through midnight tonight.

No change in the setup for Friday, except the cold front reverses
course and slowly head back to the north as a warm front. This will
continue to serve as a focusing mechanism for storms in the
afternoon, and west to east training will once again be a concern,
especially across the aforementioned areas that already have
compromised soils. There has been some discussion with neighboring
WFOs with how to both cover this, and a continuing threat with the
same airmass lingering for Saturday. Current local thinking is that
there will be enough of a gap late tonight into Friday afternoon to
hoist a separate flash flood watch for the later events. For those
amplifying our messaging, the message we want to get out is that
this type of setup has the POTENTIAL to produce significant
localized rainfall amounts leading to life threatening flash
flooding. If you live in a vulnerable area (example - a hollow
draining a fairly large area with structures along a fairly narrow
drainage near the mouth) it is extremely important to maintain
situational awareness through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 PM Thursday...

Not much change in the pattern is expected through the weekend with
upper level ridging remaining over the southeast with high zonal
flow across the north featuring a warn front lifting north early
Saturday leaving the entire region mired deeply in the tropically
influenced airmass and approaching cold front Sunday which looks to
finally have some potential to push all the way south through the
area. The main concern will continue to be locally heavy rain over
potentially significantly compromised soils (contingent on preceding
rainfall). As mentioned in the near term discussion, will likely
need at least some continuing flood watches, largely contingent on
soil conditions. While localized significant rainfall totals are
possible, average rainfall over the larger basins will remain quite
manageable, generally 2 to 3 inches from today through Sunday so
problems on any larger waterways are not anticipated.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 130 PM Thursday...

From Monday through Wednesday, ridging tries to build over the
center of the country This should leave our region on the eastern
flank of the plume of better column moisture. This should result in
a decrease in convective coverage and intensity. However, the
atmosphere will not be completely void of moisture, and isolated to
widely scattered afternoon "pop-up" thunderstorms will still be
possible, especially over the higher terrain. The primary sensible
weather story will be the building heat. High temperatures are
forecast to climb from the upper 80s on Monday into the low 90s by
Tuesday and Wednesday. With continued humidity, heat index values
will likely approach the mid to upper 90s during the afternoon hours.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 130 PM Thursday...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will pose the primary aviation
hazard through this evening, capable of producing MVFR/IFR
conditions with heavy rain, gusty winds, and lightning. Ceilings
will drop to 1000-3000 feet AGL with visibility reduced to 1-3 miles
in the heavier storms. Outside of convection, VFR conditions will
prevail.

Overnight, as convection diminishes, areas of valley fog and stratus
are expected to develop, especially in locations that receive
rainfall. LIFR to IFR conditions are expected. Conditions slowly
improve after sunrise as fog and stratus lifts and dissipates.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, locations and intensity of showers
and thunderstorms could vary from forecast. Overnight fog
formation is not entirely out of the question tonight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
Brief periods of IFR conditions possible under showers and
thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours into
next week. IFR or worse fog is also possible during the
overnights, especially where any heavy rain falls the previous
day.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for WVZ005>011-013>020-
     024>034-039-040-515>526.
OH...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for OHZ075-076-083>087.
KY...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ003-004.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JP