651
FXUS61 KRLX 171346
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
946 AM EDT Sat May 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front crosses today. Quieter to finish the weekend, then
unsettled pattern returns next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 944 AM Saturday...

Southwesterly winds are picking up this morning ahead of the
anticipated cold front which is just starting to move into our
Ohio counties from the west. GOES-19 satellite shows mostly
clear skies across the forecast area in the wake of last nights
weather. There are some clouds just to our north along the front
which may drop down into the northern lowlands and mountains
later on. Also, added some chance PoPs across the mountains
later this afternoon and evening to account for typical, post-
frontal upslope flow. Otherwise, expecting mostly clear and dry
for much of the day.

As of 400 AM Saturday...

Since the bulk of precipitation has already exited the area,
the flood watch has been allowed to expire.

As of 330 AM Saturday...

Rain and a few thunderstorms continue to slide east out of the
area early this morning. Although a cold front will pass
through later in the morning, drier conditions are expected to
return to the majority of the area. That being said, an isolated
shower or storm could develop over the northern fringes of the
CWA as an upper trough pulls moisture back into the area this
afternoon and evening.

Strong flow aloft is expected to mix down to the surface during the
day, with 30 to 40 mph wind gusts possible throughout the
lowlands while the higher ridges of the northeast mountains
could gust to around 45 mph. A wind advisory is in effect for
southeast Randolph and northeast Pocahontas counties from mid
morning into tonight. Gusts will then gradually ease overnight.

Daytime temperatures are expected to range from 70s to low 80s
in the lowlands and mid 60s to 70s in the mountains, then
temperatures lower into the mid 40s to 50s for tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 210 AM Saturday...

Model consensus has us quiet for Sunday amid zonal flow and
upper level ridging building in through the day and for much of
Monday. The NAM and EURO have a different story for the latter
part of Monday with a disturbance moving in from a warm frontal
boundary due to a low pressure system out west along the Rocky
Mountains. Since the other models have a mostly dry warm frontal
boundary elected to maintain the blended model guidance that
provides PoPs which equated to slight chance to chances of
shower activity for mainly the southern half of the CWA. This
solution is less likely, however due to model differences the
best solution would be from an ensemble blend inserted into the
forecast. Thereafter, the warm frontal boundary pushes north
through Tuesday and provides shower and thunderstorm potential
while in the warm sector of the system through the rest of this
period.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 210 AM Saturday...

The aforementioned low pressure system moves into the region
and makes a path directly across our area bringing a cold front
through on Wednesday. As the system moves toward the northeast
wrap around flow will keep chances of precipitation on the
table through most of Thursday along with thunderstorm
potential. The EURO has the system rotating almost stationary to
our north which would keep unsettled weather around, but the
other models have the system kicking out toward the northeast.
Chances of precipitation will still exist for the rest of
period, however it will likely be less active weather taking
place going into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 645 AM Friday...

VFR flight conditions are expected for the majority of the TAF
period, though an upper disturbance may usher clouds into the
area during the day. This disturbance could also prompt isolated
showers to form near CKB/EKN this afternoon and evening;
however, confidence in development is low enough to leave
mention out of the TAFs.

Southwest to westerly winds will be breezy today, with 25 to 35 kt
gusts expected in the lowlands and around 40 kt gusts possible over
the higher mountain ridges. Winds gradually weaken overnight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Gusty winds may fluctuate today.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EDT 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
IFR conditions in heavy rain and thunderstorms could develop by
late Tuesday and continue at times into Thursday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Wind Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for WVZ523-526.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JZ/20
NEAR TERM...20/LTC
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...20