484
FXUS61 KRLX 230630
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
130 AM EST Sat Nov 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Wintry precipitation continues with an upper-level low to our
northeast, bringing accumulating snow in the mountains, through
Saturday. Dry Sunday into Monday. Rain returns Monday afternoon.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 110 AM Saturday...

Forecast on track, with accumulating snow, some heavy, and
strong, gusty winds ongoing along ridges and windward slopes
above 3000 feet. Below that, temperatures will remain above
freezing through the night.

The moisture fetch into central portions of the forecast area
will gradually wane overnight, while the upslope precipitation
continues.

As of 1030 PM Friday...

Continuing to see a decent moisture fetch originating from
Lake Erie traverse the area tonight. Temperatures have risen
quite a bit from early this afternoon. Many locations in the
lowlands are reporting low to mid 40s and many locations under
3,500 feet have risen to the mid to high 30s. That said, most
precipitation is falling as rain across the lowlands, while the
heavy snowfall remains in the higher elevations of the
northeastern WV mountains.

This will continue through the night as will breezy winds in the
lowlands; gusty winds in the mountains, especially the higher
elevations above 3,500 feet, where blizzard warnings remain in
effect until 10 AM Saturday.

As of 435 PM Friday...

Extended the Winter Weather Advisory in Taylor County until 6 PM
this evening. Still seeing some hefty bands of precipitation
moving over this area and temperatures have been reluctant to
reach forecasted highs today due to cloud cover and moisture.
Warm air intrusion will gradually take over this evening into
the night allowing for snow to change over to rain. Expecting
additional light accumulations of about 1 to 3 inches across the
area, with locally higher amounts across the higher elevations.

As of 145 PM Friday...

A Blizzard Warning is in effect for Northwest Pocahontas and
Southeastern Randolph counties until 15Z Saturday where
significant snowfall and blowing snow, as a result of strong
winds will reduce visibility to below a quarter of a mile for a
prolonged period of time today into early Saturday and snowfall
totals of 1 to 2 feet with locally higher amounts possible. A
Winter Storm Warning will follow the Blizzard Warning from 15Z
Saturday until 00Z for additional snow accumulations and blowing
snow.

A Winter Storm Warning is in effect for the surrounding mountain
counties in northeast and eastern WV until 00Z Sunday where,
area dependent, anywhere from 6 to 14 inches are expected with
higher totals in Southeastern Webster up to 2 feet. Blowing snow
can also be expected in these areas as well which could greatly
reduce visibility at times.

Lastly, a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for areas
surrounding the warnings where snowfall totals of up to 5 inches
are expected in Taylor, Wyoming, Raleigh, Fayette, Nicholas and
the lower elevations of Pocahontas county. The advisory for
Taylor county expires at 21Z this afternoon and remaining areas
will expire at 00Z Saturday.

Elongated vertically stacked low centered over SE New York will
continue to push a trough over our area this afternoon and
evening as the surface low rotates about the upper level low
with these features allowing precipitation to begin to
overspread our area this afternoon as a result. Moisture should
also increase over the area as the shortwave pushes south
bringing moisture from the Great Lakes, allowing for ample QPF
along the windward slopes under strong northwest flow leading
to potentially significant snow totals.

Temperatures today should increase steadily under warm air
advection through the evening hours keeping us warmer than the
previous night for most of the area. Precipitation could start
out as wet snow in some areas across WV but should quickly
transition to all rain by late this afternoon for the lower
elevations. Gusty winds are likely to persist overnight for much
of the area with gusts of up to 25 mph possible across the
entire territory with higher gusts of up to 50 mph possible
across the higher elevations in the mountains.

Any lingering heavy snow or rain should quickly become lighter
by Saturday afternoon in the mountains. Elsewhere precipitation
should quickly diminish from west to east by around 12Z.

Temperatures for Saturday will be a lot milder with high
temperatures in the upper 40`s to near 50 for the lowlands and
low 30`s to low 40`s across the higher mountain terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 AM Saturday...

Despite a strong low level inversion, low clouds eventually mix out
through late Sunday morning/early Sunday afternoon with temperatures
rising into the lower to middle 50s from their morning lows in the
lower to mid 30s.

More mild conditions return Monday as southwesterly flow increases
ahead of a quick hitting northern stream shortwave glancing the
region to the north. This will also bring our next chance of
precipitation, mainly for late Monday afternoon into early Tuesday
morning. Precipitation amounts with this system are expected to be
relatively light, up to perhaps a quarter of an inch. Surface
temperatures will support all liquid hydrometeors at all
elevations.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 130 AM Saturday...

Dry conditions return briefly Wednesday before a southern stream
system approaches Wednesday night into Thanksgiving Day. Initial
precipitation type across the lowlands will be liquid, with snow
possible above 3500 ft. Heading into Thanksgiving evening, we`ll get
into cold advection with a switchover to at least a mix of rain and
snow for the lower elevations possible. Still seeing some
differences in parcel trajectories off the Upper Great Lakes that
would greatly impact the longevity of any showers heading into
Friday morning and potentially continuing into the weekend.
Probabilistic guidance isn`t hinting at much risk of any impactful
lowland snow accumulations, but does indicate at least some
potential of low end advisory snow amounts in the mountains Friday
into Saturday with 20-30% chances of 4" in 24 hours. Browsing
through individual member solutions there is a non-trivial cluster
of solutions that would yield a period of persistent northwesterly
flow lingering into Saturday. At this time, forecast confidence
for the return travel period of the holiday weekend is low.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 110 AM Saturday...

Widespread MVFR to IFR ceilings persist in wrap around west to
northwest flow behind a low pressure system well off the New
England coast. Rain with MVFR to IFR visibility in and near the
mountains will gradually diminish at CRW and HTS through the
early morning hours, and then during the daylight morning hours
BKW, with snow still mixed in early on, and finally EKN. Even
then, ceilings are likely to remain IFR in the mountains,
especially BKW, while getting no better than MVFR across the
lowlands during the day. Snow and wind will keep higher ridges
obscured through much of the morning.

The west to west-northwest surface flow will be gusty at times,
but not as strong as on Friday, with peak gusts around 25 kts,
mainly during the day, higher throughout the period across the
higher ridges. Moderate to strong northwest flow aloft will only
gradually slacken to light to moderate west to northwest
through the period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of restrictions in
precipitation will vary. Gusty winds will fluctuate.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   SAT 11/23/24
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    L    H    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR ceilings at least in and near the mountains overnight
Saturday night into Sunday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for WVZ034-
     515>517-519-524.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for WVZ518-
     520-522-525.
     Blizzard Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for WVZ523-526.
     Winter Storm Warning from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this
     evening for WVZ523-526.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRM/JP
NEAR TERM...28/TRM/LTC
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...TRM