535
FXUS61 KRLX 232345
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
745 PM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Heat wave continues through the end of the workweek for at
least some areas. Low chances for an isolated thunderstorm early
in the week increase toward the middle of the week, with
modest, localized relief from the heat possible.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 745 PM Monday...

Adjusted sky conditions this evening as the afternoon cumulus
field fades off from satellite imagery. Despite two stray
showers forming in the southern coalfields around an hour ago,
radar has returned to a quiet state this evening. Hot and muggy
temperatures/dew points remain on track from the inherited
forecast, so no changes were needed.

As of 130 PM Monday...

Key Message:

* Excessive heat impacts continue through at least mid-week for
  all with some minor localized relief possible from
  isolated/scattered airmass convection late in the week.

Stacked subtropical high pressure remains anchored over the
region amid a slow build in low level moisture primarily driven
by evapotranspiration through the near term forecast. Fairly
deep daytime mixing is effectively spreading this moisture out
up through the base of the subsidence inversion (~5000 ft agl
across the lower elevations) but central guidance is struggling
to accurately depict this impact at the surface. Have made some
very minor adjustments to reflect the better mixing which will
serve to keep maximum heat index values at or near 105F through
Wednesday. Still, the long duration of the heat and only modest
relief at night will warrant continuing extreme heat warnings
where they are already in place.

The aforementioned inversion looks to keep a tenuous lid on
ascent from surface based parcels both today and Tuesday, but
couldn`t rule out some local violation of the cap in areas of
subtle surface convergence or where moisture flux from the
ground is slightly stronger.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 PM Monday...

As high pressure aloft becomes progressively suppressed to the
south with the approach of a weak boundary from the north,
subsidence inversions are expected to weaken. This should result
better chances for airmass convection with weakening subsidence
inversion, and possibly drifting of storms forced along the
boundary into our northern counties. Flow through the column
remains rather weak and this activity should largely be single
cells that quickly ascend and rain themselves out with some
localized gusty winds possible beneath the collapsing cores.
This activity could provide some localized relief from the heat,
but the limited coverage will keep heat concerns going for
most.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 130 PM Monday...

The boundary alluded to in the short term discussion should be
shunted back to north by surface low pressure transiting the upper
Great Lakes on Thursday into Friday. Overall, guidance is fairly
consistent in a continued slow weakening of ridging aloft through
the end of the week with increased potential for getting through
progressively weakening subsidence inversion via daytime heating.
Depending upon extend of expected convection, this has at least some
potential to take the edge off the heat, with the more likely
scenario continuing to have enough coverage of heat indices
exceeding criteria to continue existing heat products. For now,
would expect an extension to either Thursday or Friday for some
or all zones currently covered by heat products, but confidence
is not yet high enough in convective coverage or lack thereof
to make these changes this far out.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 745 PM Monday...

Strong dome of high pressure positioned over the area continues
to yield mostly quiet daytime flight conditions, albeit very
hot and muggy. This will once again translate into locally dense
river valley fog late tonight into Tuesday morning, particularly
for sites notorious for fog such as EKN and CRW. Any fog that
forms will quickly erode after daybreak and become mostly sunny
late in the morning before afternoon cumulus fields form during
peak heating hours. Winds remain generally light through the TAF
period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog may form earlier and/or be worse than
forecast again Tuesday morning.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
EDT 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions are forecast.

&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 100 PM Monday...

Forecast and Record High Temperatures:

June 23:
KCRW: 95    100/1929
KHTS: 95    100/1930
KCKB: 94    96/1957
KPKB: 96    94/1964
KBKW: 90    91/1931
KEKN: 90    89/1899

June 24:
KCRW: 95    96/1929
KHTS: 96    105/1930
KCKB: 94    97/1923
KPKB: 96    96/1930
KBKW: 90    90/1949
KEKN: 90    90/1949

June 25:
KCRW: 96    103/1930
KHTS: 96    101/1921
KCKB: 94    96/1930
KPKB: 95    100/1988
KBKW: 90    91/1914
KEKN: 91    92/1914

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for WVZ024-025-032>034-
     039-040-515-517-519.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for WVZ005>011-
     013>020-026>031.
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for OHZ066-067-083-084.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for OHZ075-076-
     085>087.
KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for KYZ101-102-105.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for KYZ103.
VA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for VAZ003-004.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP
NEAR TERM...MEK/JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MEK

CLIMATE...