026
FXUS61 KRLX 160945
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
545 AM EDT Sat Aug 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Mainly dry today. Heat and humidity increases through the
weekend. A frontal boundary approaches Sunday and stalls through
much of next week, with increasing rain and thunderstorm chances.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1220 AM Saturday...

A high pressure system will be firmly over the area today and
tonight. Some dense valley fog can be expected late at night
and early in the morning. Afternoon heat indices should top out
in the mid to upper 90s in the lowlands today. There may be
enough moisture for a couple of weak afternoon showers in the
northern West Virginia mountains today, but most areas should
remain dry.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 100 AM Saturday...

Starting Sunday, a disturbance will drag a cold frontal
boundary toward the area providing ample moisture and lift to
promote some convection out ahead of the feature during the
daytime. High pressure to the west will weaken and back off
toward the west. Central blended guidance has increased chances
since the last forecast package to where chances spread across
the entire area as opposed to only the northern sectors per the
previous run. This aforementioned feature plus daytime max
temperatures reaching into the low to mid 90s across the
lowlands will aid in providing more instability and fuel for
some thunderstorm activity to initiate during the afternoon
especially.

Daytime heating will be efficient enough to raise heat indexes
to the low 100s across the Tri-state area and southeast Ohio and
maybe even the Charleston Metro area as well. This will have to
be monitored especially since blended central guidance is flip
flopping back and forth from lowering heat indexes to raising
them in between forecast packages. According to forecast
soundings the environment will be very moist with around 2 inch
PWATs, plenty of low and mid level moisture and plenty of
CAPE/DCAPE, so heavy downpours could be possible. Without any
shear though storms probably wont be capable of becoming truly
strong or severe.

For Monday, temperatures will remain similar to Sunday with
similar sounding indices although much drier air will infiltrate
courtesy of the high pressure system building back into the
area keeping most of the area settled. The aforementioned cold
frontal boundary will meander across the region influencing
diurnal activity through this period and beyond. High pressure
will dry out the column causing the front to be somewhat
moisture starved on Monday. The only exception would be some
isolated activity along the mountains during the afternoon and
early evening due to elevated heat source and easterly flow to
provide orographic lift. Heat indexes will be slightly lower
than Sunday due to drier air being promoted from the
aforemention high pressure system.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 100 AM Saturday...

High pressure once again backs off allowing an upper level
short wave to influence the area beginning Tuesday spreading
in chances for convection across much of the area during the
afternoon and evening. By nightfall chances go up even further
as the feature settles in overhead.

Tuesday is forecast to be the hottest day therefore we
can expect more scattered activity during the afternoon and
early evening as well as on Wednesday.

For, Wednesday diurnal shower and thunderstorm activity
will be at its greatest and therefore temperatures will start
to decline with more cloud coverage. Once this feature crosses
over toward the east on Thursday the heat will break and
temperatures will fall to below seasonable for once as well as
on Friday with more diurnal chances for activity.

An upper level jet will then supporting a broad upper level
trough will enter the region and promote stronger and more
scattered activity at the end of this period and beyond.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 545 AM Saturday...

After dense river valley fog dissipates, expect mainly dry
weather with some cumulus today, although there may be enough
moisture for a couple of weak afternoon showers in the northern
West Virginia mountains.

Dense river valley fog can be expected again late tonight and
early Sunday morning.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium with fog, otherwise high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of fog lifting could vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SAT 08/16/25
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    M    M    L    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    M    M    M    M    L    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    M    M    M    L    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
A stalling frontal boundary will increase chances for afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms Sunday through Tuesday, which
could produce brief IFR conditions. Morning valley fog may produce
IFR conditions through Monday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RPY/JZ
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...RPY