055
FXUS61 KRLX 191744
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
144 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains large and in charge, with sunny days and
warmer afternoons into next week. A cold front approaches the
middle of next week, with cooler weather to end the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 130 PM Saturday...

Chamber of Commerce weather is underway across the forecast area
this afternoon in response to high pressure being anchored over
the region. Dry air observed on morning RAOB soundings will
attempt to mix down to the surface during peak heating hours,
and could yield relative humidity values to drop into the 20 to
30 percent range this afternoon. Wind flow will be lackluster
due to the strong influence of the surface high, which should
mitigate fire weather concerns to only localized spots today.
Temperatures will plateau in the low to mid 70 range across the
lower elevations and into the 60s along the higher terrain.

River valley fog will once again make an appearance late tonight
into Sunday morning under the guise of radiational cooling and
decoupling at the surface. This will quickly erode into another
quiet weather day as we round out the weekend. Afternoon temperatures
and RH values will be similar to today, with highs in the 60s
and 70s and humidity readings bottoming out around 30 percent.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 144 PM Saturday...

Upper heights will build across the area on Monday, with continued
warm and dry conditions. Afternoon RH values will be low with plenty
of dry air and subsidence, but winds should overall be light,
keeping much in the way of fire danger at bay. After some patchy
river valley fog early Tuesday morning, dry and warm conditions are
expected again. Afternoon RH values will be low once again, but
depending on timing of next trough and surface cold front will
dictate how low they are able to get. Winds will start to increase
Tuesday evening into Wednesday out ahead of the approaching
disturbance.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 144 PM Saturday...

Upper trough and surface cold front will sweep across the area
Wednesday evening. There may be some light shower activity across
the north and east as it does so, but for the most part, the main
effects look to be gusty winds and a brief increase in cloud cover,
along with cooler temperatures, and dry conditions to round out the
extended period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 130 PM Saturday...

High pressure remains anchored over the area through the period,
yielding optimal flight conditions under mostly clear skies and
light surface flow. River valley fog may attempt to form once
again during the predawn hours Sunday morning, but will quickly
erode after sunrise. VFR conditions then resume for all sites
for the day on Sunday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Overnight river valley fog may vary from
the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected at this time.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEK/SL
NEAR TERM...MEK
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...MEK