027
FXUS61 KRLX 221505
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1005 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level system brings wintry precipitation, with
accumulating snow in the mountains, through Saturday. Dry
Sunday into early Monday. Rain returns Monday afternoon.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1005 AM Friday...

Upgraded Northwest Pocahontas and Southeast Randolph counties to
a Blizzard Warning, in effect until 15Z Saturday. The Winter
Storm Warning for these counties will continue from 15Z Saturday
until 00Z Saturday. The Wind Advisory that was in effect for
these counties is also replaced by the Blizzard Warning.

Strong winds combined with both heavy falling snow and previous
snowfall will create blowing snow and whiteout conditions
across the higher elevations of Pocahontas and Randolph counties
through the warning period, creating visibilities below a quarter
of a mile for prolonged periods of time. Blowing snow remains
possible through the duration of the Winter Storm Warning as
well but should be less significant than this afternoon through
Saturday morning.


As of 915 AM Friday...

The Winter Weather Advisories for McDowell, Boone, Logan, and Mingo
counties in WV and Buchanan/Dickenson counties in VA have been ended
as precipitation should largely remain light through the rest of
today with snowfall totals under criteria expected as snow
transitions to mainly rain this afternoon.

As of 535 AM Friday...

The Winter Weather Advisories have been upgraded to Winter
Storm Warnings for Barbour, Upshur and Western Webster counties
for accumulating snow showers today prior to temperatures rising
above freezing later this afternoon. It has also been extended
in time to 6 PM EST this evening. An area of snow showers was
moving into this area early this morning, under the
mid/upper-level short wave trough pivoting through there.

As of 335 AM Friday...

Snow associated with surface low pressure moving southeastward
across the area was confined to southern portions of the area
early this morning, and will be out of there by dawn. The low
was associated with a mid/upper-level shortwave trough extending
west-southwestward out of elongated low pressure over the
northern Mid-Atlantic. The trough should also pass southeast of
the area by dawn. Light additional snowfall accumulations occur
across the southern Coal Fields and southern mountains before
dawn.

We have had an inch of snow so far here at the Charleston WFO
and at nearby Hurricane, with 2 to 3 inches across the lower
mountainous terrain, and close to a half a foot up at Snowshoe.
Temperatures were near and below freezing throughout the area,
and should drop another degree or so early this morning.

Temperatures will be slow to rise today, especially this
morning, but low level warm advection will actually keep
temperatures rising this evening, and tonight will be milder
than early this morning, above freezing throughout the lowlands
and even into the lower mountainous terrain.

As such, showers that become more numerous north to south
today, especially this afternoon, on enhanced low level upslope
flow and deepening wrap around moisture, will take the form of
rain across the lowlands, while snow levels gradually rise in
the mountains through tonight.

For the foothills of the northern mountains of WV, temperatures
will be slowly approaching and then rising above freezing this
afternoon, with snow showers becoming more numerous midday and
early this afternoon. With the latest guidance showing more of
an intersection of still at or below temperatures and wet-bulb
temperatures, and snowfall, will upgrade our Winter Weather
Advisories to Winter Storm Warning for Upshur, Barbour and
western Webster counties. The rest of the Advisories still look
OK.

With QPF better resolved along the terrain, amounts along the
higher windward slopes could exceed two feet event total.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 205 AM Friday...

Surface high pressure shifts east into the Gulf of Maine on Saturday
gradually shifting parcel trajectories away from the Upper Great
Lakes and into the Midwest cutting off the upstream moisture source.
This will bring any residual mountain snow showers to a culmination
by mid-afternoon with perhaps up to an additional half inch of
snowfall along the most favored west facing ridges from Saturday
morning.

As cold air associated with the core of the low shifts east and it
is replaced by warmer air aloft, a strong low level inversion will
develop likely trapping moisture beneath it and yielding a rather
dreary stratus filled day Saturday, may even see a little drizzle
out of this as the column squashes down.

Skies should eventually clear late Saturday night into Sunday
morning with fair conditions expected through the balance of the
weekend and into the first half of the day Monday amid a return to
near normal temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 205 AM Friday...

The next chance for precipitation comes Monday afternoon into
Tuesday morning as a quick hitting northern stream shortwave glances
the region to the north. Precipitation amounts with this system are
expected to be relatively light, up to perhaps a quarter of an inch.
Surface temperatures will support all liquid hydrometeors at all
elevations.

Dry conditions return briefly Wednesday before a southern stream
system approaches Wednesday night into Thursday. Initial
precipitation type will once again be all rain. Models solutions do
display some differences with the strength of this system and
resultant strength of cold advection on the back side with potential
lake enhanced moisture. Mountain snow appears probable on Thursday,
with lake enhanced showers possibly continuing on Friday if parcel
trajectories are favorable. In this scenario, the mountains would
receive additional snowfall with some snow mixing in even in the
lowlands by Friday night. At this time, forecast confidence is low.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 630 AM Friday...

Snow showers in and near the mountains, associated with a
mid/upper-level shortwave trough, will diminish early this
morning, except north, as the trough swings on through.
Ceilings will remain MVFR, with MVFR visibility in any snow
showers this morning, otherwise VFR. Any ceiling improvement to
VFR will be brief, and BKW will have IFR ceilings through much
of the TAF period.

Light west surface flow will strengthen and become increasingly
gusty from the west during the day today. As moderate northwest
flow aloft becomes stronger during the day today, enhanced
upslope and diurnal heating will result in showers becoming
increasingly widespread from north to south today, especially
this afternoon. However, the boundary layer will warm due to
the diurnal heating, and the arrival of warmer air.

As a result, the showers will take the form of rain with
primarily MVFR conditions across the lowlands, and IFR in snow
at EKN later this morning through this afternoon, and MVFR to
IFR in snow at CKB and BKW this afternoon, will at least mix
with rain at these sites this evening, and then actually become
all rain overnight tonight. CKB should be all rain by this
evening. However, ceilings should settle into IFR most
everywhere tonight. Tonight will be warmer than early this
morning, with temperatures above freezing all TAF sites, as the
gusty west winds diminish only slightly overnight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of restrictions in
precipitation will vary. Gusty winds will fluctuate.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EST 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    L    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    L    M    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR ceilings at least in and near the mountains Saturday into
Sunday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
     WVZ032.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Saturday for WVZ034-
     515>517-519-524.
     Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for WVZ039-
     040-521.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Saturday for WVZ518-520-
     522-525.
     Blizzard Warning until 10 AM EST Saturday for WVZ523-526.
     Winter Storm Warning from 10 AM to 7 PM EST Saturday for
     WVZ523-526.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRM/JP
NEAR TERM...28/TRM
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...TRM