384
FXUS61 KRLX 101800
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
200 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
159 PM Update...

~18z aviation forecast update.

1243 PM Update...
Flash flooding concerns remain through tonight with rounds of
showers and thunderstorms moving through the area ahead of a
cold front.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Through early Friday, rounds of showers and thunderstorms will
continue to traverse the area ahead of and along a cold front. Flash
flooding will be a concern due to heavy downpours and training
storms.

2) Active weather is expected through the weekend. Drier weather
moves in on Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Flash flooding concerns continue today with rounds of showers and
thunderstorms moving across the forecast area ahead of an
approaching cold front that will cross this afternoon. Ongoing and
new flash flooding is expected from showers and thunderstorms
through the afternoon and especially this evening from the crossing
cold front.

Between 3" and 6" of rainfall has fallen across portions of
southeastern Ohio and western West Virginia this morning leading to
significant flash flooding. A conveyor belt of light showers will
continue to move up from the southwest this morning. Models show
another heavier round of showers and thunderstorms that will form
later this afternoon and evening. This will be in the 5-10 PM time
frame today. Models still vary as to where the heaviest rain
will occur. The HRRR brings the heaviest rainfall across the
Tri-State and I-64 Corridor through the Metro Valley. The NAM on
the other hand, chooses to keep it north further impacting
locations that saw significant flooding this morning. An
additional 1-3" of rainfall is possible through tonight.

A conditional severe weather threat exists this afternoon and
evening for damaging wind gusts with any strong to severe
thunderstorms. Cloud cover may ultimately keep a widespread severe
weather threat at bay, but forcing from the crossing front this
afternoon will possibly create some stronger isolated to
scattered thunderstorms.

Light showers and drizzle will continue into Friday morning as
the front exits east. High pressure will sneak in late on Friday
providing a brief drier spell ahead of our active weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A warm front will lift north on Saturday bringing a widespread
soaking rain back to the area. The highest amounts around 1" to
1.50" looks to remain across the mountains and down into southwest
Virginia. Localized flash flooding could be possible into the
weekend with rounds of showers and thunderstorms impacting the
area.

High pressure is projected to move in on Monday and the
consensus is drier weather that will span Monday through
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

MVFR and IFR conditions will be in abundance later this
afternoon and overnight with another round of heavy showers and
thunderstorms moving through along a front. Widespread fog and
low stratus will be likely to form tonight and Friday morning
as a result of the lingering moisture. LIFR conditions will be
possible with any low ceilings and fog. IFR and MVFR ceilings
will likely linger at many sites through tomorrow morning.

Winds will be SW-W`rly today and will be light in speed. Gusts
between 15 and 20 knots will be possible as a cold front crosses
later. More organized showers and thunderstorms this afternoon
have the potential to produce strong and damaging wind gusts.
Winds will go calm overnight.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of showers/storms may
vary from the forecast. Fog and low ceiling formation tonight
into Friday morning will likely vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
EDT 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
Additional restrictions may occur in showers/storms Friday
afternoon and through the weekend.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LTC
AVIATION...LTC