110
FXUS61 KRLX 291746
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
146 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Primarily diurnally driven convection through Monday. Cold
frontal passage Tuesday with strong to severe storms. Drier
airmass settles in for much of the remainder of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 130 PM Sunday...

Key Messages:

* Another round of diurnally enhanced storms today and Monday
  may produce locally gusty winds and heavy rain

* Strong to severe storms are possible Tuesday ahead of and behind a
  cold front

* A break from the hot (brief) and humid (less brief) and stormy
  weather is expected through the end of the week

The region remains mired in a stagnant, weak flow regime at the
western periphery of the Bermuda high south of a nearly stationary
boundary located just north of the forecast area through tonight.
This will yield similar conditions to the last several days
(although likely lesser coverage), isolated to scattered diurnally
forced convection amidst a very moist airmass. The main threats with
this activity will be: Slow moving storms producing localized heavy
rain which may produce localized water issues. Wet microbursts given
steep low level lapse rates with any initial convection producing
localized gusty winds sufficient for tree damage in Appalachia
(generally 45+ mph), in addition, brief but very high rainfall rates
(1-2" in 15 minutes) associated with core drops can produce
significant, but extremely localized flash flooding, especially over
areas that are already saturated from recent highly localized
rainfall. The risk for large hail remains rather low with wet bulb
zeros generally in excess of 14kft.

Much like the last few days, most spots will not experience this
activity given only isolated to scattered coverage, but most will be
able to see and/or possibly hear it on the horizon. This activity
should settle down by this evening, save for perhaps a lingering
updraft or two closer to the aforementioned front where flow
though the column will be slightly stronger.

Expect a bit more convective coverage on Monday as southwesterly
flow begins to increase ahead of an approaching mid-level wave and
associated cold front slated to arrive across our west late Monday
night. The diurnally enhanced activity a modest increase in deep
layer shear to work with, perhaps 20KTs or so suggesting more multi-
cellular development vs more pulse storms. As column moisture
remains anomously high and low level lapse rates remain rather
strong during peak heating could continue to see a threat for
wet microbursts producing marginally severe winds Monday
afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 PM Sunday...

The aforementioned cold front in the near term discussion
starts pushing through the forecast area Tuesday morning and is
expected to roughly bisect the region as we move into afternoon
peak heating. Ascent associated with this feature should provide
a focus for strong to severe convection Tuesday afternoon for
the eastern half of the area with mainly a damaging wind threat
expected before forcing exits east. Cooler air moving in aloft
behind the front coupled with strong insolation in any clearing
in its wake may provide another opportunity for additional
storms late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening closer to the
Ohio River. With cooler temperatures aloft this could add in a
marginal hail threat to the marginal wind threat, if it
materializes.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 135 PM Sunday...

Cooler and less humid in the wake of the front, but warming back up
again heading into next weekend. While temperatures are expected to
only take brief break from the heat, should see dew point values
remaining in the upper 50s to lower 60s through much of the work
week with afternoon heat indices only in the 80s until we get
to the holiday weekend. A weak backdoor cold front tries to
squeeze down from the south Thursday into Friday which could
provide some low end precipitation chances, but otherwise a dry
forecast is expected for much of the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 135 PM Sunday...

Isolated to scattered diurnally forced convection is expected
yet again this afternoon with the best coverage expected closer
to the higher terrain. Confidence of impacts at any given
terminal are rather low, but will include VCTS for most
locations and some PROB30 -TSRA closer to the mountains for a
few hours.

Any convection largely ends by 02Z this evening.

Patchy valley fog will be possible again tonight, mainly
affecting EKN/CRW and any terminal that sees any measurable rain
this afternoon/evening.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Onset timing of showers and thunderstorms
may vary this afternoon. Fog coverage and timing tonight may vary
from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
EDT 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR conditions possible in thunderstorms through Tuesday and
in morning fog Wednesday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JP