193
FXUS61 KRLX 241007
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
607 AM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
555 AM Update...

12z aviation forecast discussion.

234 AM Update...
06z aviation discussion update. Strong thunderstorms and heavy
rainfall may be possible late Monday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Warming trend continues through the weekend with afternoon
  chances for showers and thunderstorms.

- 2) A disturbance crosses Monday leading to the potential for
  some strong or maybe severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall
  in the late afternoon and evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Large dome of high pressure over the southern CONUS/Gulf remains
unwavering, spanning most of the southern US. The upper-level
ridge pattern overhead will keep conditions drier, but chances
for afternoon showers and thunderstorms will exist today through
Sunday with disturbances moving through the ridge creating a
typical `dirty ridge` pattern. Convection will be limited to
diurnal heating or upslope forcing. Currently, severe weather
remains low chance, but a isolated strong thunderstorm or two
could form Saturday or Sunday afternoon across the mountains
with upslope flow.

A warming trend starts today as many locations across the
lowlands reach the lower and mid 80s. By Sunday, mid to upper
80s will be common. Upper 80s to lower 90s are on the board for
the typical warm spots in the lowlands on Monday and Tuesday
with the warming trend increasing into early next week where it
will then plateau.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A fast-moving and vigorous disturbance is slated to move through
the ridge aloft Monday afternoon. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible in the late afternoon and
evening. Currently, most of the severe weather environment and
timing remains to the west, but our OH, KY, and western WV
counties may see some stronger thunderstorms with CAPE values
approaching 2,000 J/Kg. PWATs are being modeled between 1.75"
and 2.25" which would lead to efficient rainfall that could
cause flash flooding. Models are suggesting the heaviest rain
will occur across either the southern coalfields or the Tri-
State Area/KY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Mostly VFR conditions with SCT to BKN CIGs between 2,500 and
9,000 feet AGL this morning. Some MVFR CIGs are likely to move
in across the southern coalfields and the mountains. BKW will
likely hold these MVFR CIGs well into the afternoon. Expecting
low stratus to form tonight into Saturday with MVFR and IFR
conditions possible, especially for BKW and EKN.

There are chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms today,
but confidence is low, especially for location. VCSH, VCTS, and
TEMPO groups were added for areas of higher confidence.

SE`rly winds will be calm this morning, picking up to 4-7kts by
mid-morning. Gusts between 15 and 20 knots are possible at BKW
through the day.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Some locations could see some showers or an
isolated thunderstorm today when it is not in the forecast.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EDT 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR conditions could be possible in low stratus and patchy fog
Saturday morning.IFR conditions are also possible with showers
and thunderstorms late Monday through Tuesday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LTC
AVIATION...LTC