863
FXUS61 KRLX 092022
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
322 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure exits tonight. A low pressure system brings a wet
finish to the weekend. Mainly dry weather returns Monday through
Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 140 PM Saturday...

High pressure with its very dry air exerting its influence over
the area this afternoon, moves away from the area tonight.
Downslope associated with large scale low level southeast flow
around the high, which was centered to the northeast of the
area, over the northeastern states, was mitigated only by an
inverted trough over the area, keeping the flow a
topographically neutral northeast northwest of the mountains,
and upslope southeast along the southeast-facing slopes. Despite
this mitigation of downslope flow, RH values were already in
the 20s in spots, and these values will become more widespread
this afternoon.

The inverted trough fades tonight, although nocturnal backing
and decoupling may keep surface winds light northeast.

High clouds will continue to increase this afternoon, and then
lower and thicken tonight, followed rain Sunday as a low
pressure system tracks across the Great Lakes. The lower levels
will not moisten up in ernest until first thing Sunday morning,
when rain from the middeck begins reaching the ground.

GOES-R imagery suggests at least some moisture being pulled
northward out of tropical system Rafael over the northern Gulf
of Mexico, and rainfall potential Sunday depends upon how much
moisture gets absorbed into the system moving into the midwest
tonight, before low level flow associated with this system
becomes decoupled from the Gulf as the system crosses the Great
Lakes on Sunday.

PW values are progged to reach at least 1.5 inches, which is at
the top of the climatological maximum for this time of year.
While forecast rainfall amounts have backed off a bit, a solid
wetting rain of greater than a tenth of an inch is expected for
all but perhaps far southeast portions of the area through
Sunday, with amounts of up around an inch over the middle Ohio
Valley, where rainfall will be most persistent.

Cloud cover will make for a milder night tonight, compared with
last night, but the rain will hold highs Sunday to near normal,
with a slow daytime rise.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 255 PM Saturday...

Scattered rain showers will continue Sunday night in advance of
and along a crossing cold front, with a rumble or two of thunder
not out of the question early Sunday night. Additional rain
amounts up to half an inch are possible Sunday night, with the
highest amounts expected in/near the higher terrain. Low
temperatures Sunday night will range from the mid 40s to mid
50s amid breezy conditions, particularly in the mountains where
gusts of 25-35 mph will be possible. Showers should by and large
exit the area by dawn on Monday morning, with perhaps some
isolated showers lingering in/near the mountains until noon Monday.

Mainly dry weather will then prevail through the remainder of
the short term period. A weak and moisture starved cold front
will cross early on Tuesday. Much of the forecast area will
remain dry, with perhaps a few showers possible across the
northern mountains. High temperatures on Monday will be in the
60s across the lowlands, with 50s in the mountains, while
Tuesday will feature mid 50s to low 60s in the lowlands, with
40s to low 50s in the mountains. Both days will feature a decent
amount of sunshine, particularly on Tuesday. Mostly clear skies
on Tuesday night will allow for chilly temperatures - upper 20s
to upper 30s across the lowlands, with mid 20s to low 30s in the
mountains. Some river valley fog is expected to develop late
Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 255 PM Saturday...

Mainly dry weather is expected for the extended period. Lingering
high pressure on Wednesday brings dry conditions to begin the
period, with the chance for showers returning Wednesday night
into Thursday as another cold front crosses through the region.
Rain amounts are anticipated to be on the light side, generally
a quarter of an inch or less. Traversing high pressure then
brings a return of dry conditions for late Thursday and Friday.

Temperatures are progged to be above normal throughout the
period, particularly on Wednesday in advance of the front (highs
in the 60s across the lowlands), with a return to slightly above
normal for Thursday/Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 140 PM Saturday...

High pressure with its very dry air exerting its influence over
the area this afternoon, moves away from the area tonight.
Downslope associated with large scale low level southeast flow
around the high, which was centered to the northeast of the
area, over the northeastern states, was mitigated only by an
inverted trough over the area, keeping the flow a
topographically neutral northeast northwest of the mountains,
and upslope southeast along the southeast-facing slopes. The
inverted trough fades tonight, although nocturnal backing and
decoupling may keep surface winds light northeast. Low level
flow will pick up out of the southeast on Sunday, with gusts
into the 15-20 kt range at most locations.

Light southeast flow aloft this afternoon will veer to light south
and then southwest tonight, and then become moderate southwest
on Sunday.

High clouds will continue to increase this afternoon, and then
lower and thicken tonight, followed rain Sunday as a low
pressure system tracks across the Great Lakes. The lower levels
will not moisten up in ernest until first thing Sunday morning,
when rain from the middeck begins reaching the ground. Even
then, ceilings are forecast to remain above the 3 kft MVFR
threshold through 18Z Sunday, but visibility will likely drop
to at least MVFR at most locations by late Sunday morning.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Low level wind shear could develop early
Sunday morning if flow aloft can strengthen before surface flow
picks up, given a low level inversion in place. Ceilings may
lower to MVFR in the middle Ohio Valley by 18Z Sunday.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
EST 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR possible in rain Sunday night, and into Monday morning in
lingering stratus.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Air Quality Alert until midnight EST tonight for WVZ005-006-
     013>015-024>026-033-034-515>518.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRM/GW
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...GW
LONG TERM...GW
AVIATION...TRM