192
FXUS61 KRLX 212313
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
613 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level system brings wintry precipitation, with
accumulating snow in the mountains from today through Saturday.
Dry Sunday. Next system brings rain to start the new work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 600 PM Thursday...

Everything looks good with the forecast and no major changes
were needed at this time. The second disturbance is riding
along spreading more light snow across the Tri-state area and
south of there. The convective showers are exiting toward the
east and we should see less activity for the lower elevations
but the mountains will continue to see upslope snow thereafter.

As of 145 PM Thursday...

An upper level low just north of the region will slowly drift
eastward through Friday. Energy rotating around this low will
provide periods of precipitation. This will also combine with
northwest upslope flow to to enhance the precipitation.

The first disturbance is moving through this afternoon and will
transition into an upslope event with cold air advection. Model
soundings late this afternoon and evening have extremely deep
moisture and steep lapse rates. This gives the potential for
snow squalls and some quick accumulations. The upslope wanes
overnight as another disturbance rotates through Kentucky,
southern West Virginia and southwest Virginia. Since this will
be moving through during the nighttime hours, most of the
precipitation should be in the form of snow.

Yet another disturbance will affect the region on Friday. This
will once again be an elevation storm, with the lower elevations
struggling to accumulate. Meso models are giving impressive
precipitation amounts with this disturbance, some over three
quarters of an inch. Went on the conservative side of guidance
for the moment since we already have nearly 2 feet of snow in
the forecast for the higher elevations of the northern West
Virginia mountains, but be aware that even more is possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM Thursday...

Period starts out with upper low continuing to rotate off to our
northeast, with a northwesterly flow aloft taking hold across the
area. Rain and snow showers will continue Friday night into
Saturday, enhanced by additional shortwaves rotating on the back
side of the low through the area, and from upslope northwesterly
flow/moisture fetch off the Great Lakes across the higher terrain.
Additional snow accumulations can be expected across the mountains
late Friday night into early Saturday, however, snow shower activity
will be on the decrease during the day Saturday, as the low and
upper trough continue to move away from the area, and flow becomes
less favorable for the continuation of upslope activity. In
addition, gusty winds will continue through at least later in the
day Saturday until surface high pressure can briefly build in, with
a relaxed pressure gradient taking over. A wind advisory has
been issued for the potential for wind gusts over 40 kts across
the higher terrain of Randolph and Pocahontas counties Friday
through early Saturday.

Sunday looks to be dry, and mild, with high pressure briefly
building into the area. High temperatures on Sunday will be in the
40s to lower 50s across the mountains, and in the 50s across much of
the lowlands.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 PM Thursday...

Active weather looks to return early to mid week as another system
approaches the area from the west. Bulk of precipitation associated
with this low will be in the form of rain, although a few flakes of
snow, or a brief wintry mix cannot be completely ruled out across
the highest elevations. Front associated with the low will move
through the area mid week, with slightly cooler air in its wake. At
the end of the period, models are indicating a more substantial low
pressure system to affect the area, with the potential for a soaking
rain.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 620 PM Thursday...

MVFR CIGs are prevailing, however VIS restrictions are getting
into the IFR category, although convective bands are leaving
the area and more stratiform snow will enter the Tri-state area
and south of there. Some possible lower CIGs under shower
activity otherwise should stay relatively unrestricted
predominately. There may be a slight break during the early
afternoon tomorrow, however the mountains will likely continue
across CKB/EKN. Snow showers start back up at every site by
late afternoon with expected VIS restrictions and low, maybe
widespread IFR, CIGs. Winds will continue out of the west
settling down some overnight but picking back up for the early
to mid-morning.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of restrictions in
snow could vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
EST 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    H    H    H    L    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR or worse conditions possible, mainly for the mountains, in
periods of snow through Saturday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Saturday for WVZ033-034-
     039-040-515>517-519-521-524.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Friday for WVZ024>026-
     032.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Saturday for WVZ518-520-
     522-523-525-526.
     Wind Advisory from noon Friday to 6 AM EST Saturday for WVZ523-
     526.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Saturday for VAZ003-004.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RPY/JP
NEAR TERM...RPY/JZ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JZ