260
FXUS61 KRLX 311726
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
126 PM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The forecast remains on track and no significant changes were
made at this time.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Building heat with isolated showers and storms through midweek.

- 2) Shower and storm coverage increases late this week, as a
  cold front approaches.

- 3) Drier weather with more seasonable temperatures follow the
  cold front for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Surface high pressure across the area will provide mostly dry
conditions to the region. There will be some slight chances for
diurnal showers and thunderstorms albeit isolated in nature for
Tuesday although this should be confined to the northern tiers
of our County Warning Area. According to the National Blend of
Models Wednesday and Thursday looks to be dry although one
cannot rule out a diurnal shower or thunderstorm during the
maximum daytime heating as the area gets to anomalously high
temperatures for this time of year. Also, the moisture flux
from the Great Lakes driving around the periphery of the high
pressure system will traverse into the area which will bring
higher dew points, therefore humid conditions along with the
heat will be the main theme through Thursday.

This moisture flux track could advect in more cloud coverage
and shower potential then expected, therefore the confidence on
PoPs is low as central guidance is having a hard time dealing
with this solution and setup. For Tuesday, heat indexes were
borderline or less for advisory criteria, therefore no headlines
were issued as of now. For Wednesday and Thursday, that may be
a different story as indexes exceed advisory criteria across
much of the lowlands, especially across the Tri-state and
Charleston Metro areas. This will have to be closely monitored
for the next forecast package or two.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

For Thursday, shower potential rises as a cold front swings
down from the south and promotes shower and thunderstorm
activity out ahead of the frontal boundary. SPC has us already
in a slight chance or 15% for possible severe thunderstorm
potential with modest shear and instability to support this as
well as anomalously high temperatures. For Friday, the cold
frontal boundary slides through promoting more chances for
thunderstorm activity as well as severe potential as SPC has us
in a slight 15% probability as well for the afternoon and
evening.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Models have surface high pressure building in behind the front
which should suppress much in the way of shower or thunderstorm
potential. Drier weather is expected and cooler weather will
break the warming trend for the weekend. The area will likely
become settled after Saturday as mid and upper level heights
build slowly behind the aforementioned cold frontal boundary.
Mid to upper level high pressure will reinforce settled weather
going into the new work week.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail for the period outside some valley
fog overnight. The valley fog should only affect CRW/CKB/EKN.
EKN will likely be the only one to get dense fog with VLIFR
expected. Winds will generally be light picking up tomorrow out
of the west with gusts into the low teens across the higher
terrain sites.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent, timing and intensity of fog
overnight tonight may vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EDT 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR conditions are possible with patchy river valley fog
Wednesday and Thursday mornings. Strong to possibly severe
thunderstorms northeast of the area late Tuesday through
Wednesday night will settle south into the area Thursday and
Friday, resulting in IFR conditions and possibly strong to
severe wind gusts from brief, direct thunderstorm impacts.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JZ
AVIATION...TRM