284
FXUS61 KRLX 240114
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
914 PM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Shower and storm chances continue through Sunday ahead of a cold
front. Broad surface high pressure builds behind the front,
providing a cooler and mainly dry upcoming work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 810 PM Saturday...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms have gradually progressed
from southwest to northeast across the CWA this evening,
generally south of I-64 / I-79. Most activity at this point is
across the northeast mountains and nearby lowlands, with just
highly isolated showers further southwest where a broad cold
pool from prior activity has lead to a significant reduction in
activity. Scattered showers/storms will continue across the
aforementioned northeast zones over the next hour or two given
some modest instability there, with brief gusty winds and
locally heavy rain possible. Following this, expect more/less
just ISOLD showers for the overnight, primarily southeast of the
Ohio River. Lows will be in the low/mid 60s across much of the
forecast area, with upper 50s possible across the mountains.
Some patchy fog is possible, mainly across the valleys, along
with the higher terrain in stratus, but overall think coverage
will be quite hindered by clouds and modest low-level flow just
above the surface. Have updated PoPs, cloud cover, and fog
coverage through tonight, with the rest of the forecast on
track.

As of 105 PM Saturday...

Key Points:

 * Increasing moisture will yield cloud cover and isolated to
   scattered showers and storms beginning this afternoon.

 * An advancing cold front will continue to bolster
   precipitation through Sunday before departing to the east.

With high pressure now shifting offshore, increasing low level
moisture out of the southwest will yield widespread cloud cover
today, which is already underway via satellite imagery. Up
aloft, an amplifying mid to upper level trough will continue to
dig further down into the Ohio Valley while driving a surface
cold front through the eastern CONUS. PWAT values will be on the
rise as we remain placed in the warm sector of this advancing
disturbance, with moisture levels on the upwards of 1.5 inches
already noted on SPC Mesoanalysis.

Model guidance has done a decent job at convective trends early
this afternoon, depicting scattered showers and embedded
thunderstorms first developing in eastern Kentucky and
southwestern Virginia. The anticipation is for additional
development to begin shortly after this discussion is posted
across our southern counties and grow in earnest along the spine
of the Appalachians through the course of the evening. Weak
forcing with activity today will preclude any strong to severe
storms.

The cold front slowly arrives into the Ohio River Valley
overnight into Sunday morning. Remaining in a warm and unstable
environment overnight will keep shower and storm chances going
beyond after dark, so continue precipitation chances of 50 to 60
percent going along the West Virginia foothill and mountainous
areas. Elsewhere in the forecast area, abundant low level
moisture will yield a mixture of low stratus and valley fog
overnight.

Sunday`s shower and storm chances remain generally along the
higher terrain and eastward as the front begins its passage
overhead. A few light sprinkles or showers may fall along the
boundary as it ventures through the Ohio River Valley, but
otherwise the best push for activity tomorrow will be where the
pre-frontal southwesterly flow will be strongest. Once again,
severe thunderstorm chances will be low due to lackluster
instability. Flooding concerns will be kept to a localized scale
though the forecast period, and will be mainly tied to any
repetitive showers over a location or heavy downpours that may
arise both Saturday and Sunday afternoons.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 105 PM Saturday...

Key Points:

 * A cool and dry airmass settles into the area for the start of
   the new week in the wake of the cold front.

 * This brings a glimpse of temperatures more commonly observed
   during the fall.

The short term period opens up at the tail end of the cold
frontal passage slated for late Sunday night into early Monday
morning. Lingering showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will
become confined to the northeast West Virginia mountains Sunday
night and diminish in earnest by dawn Monday morning.

With the front departing offshore, surface high pressure filled
with cooler and drier conditions will venture down from the
Upper Midwest and begin a multi-day residency in close quarters
to the forecast area. During which time, this feature will yield
unseasonably cooler temperatures more tied to readings commonly
observed during the fall than at the end of August. Afternoon
temperatures from Monday through midweek are progged to reach
the upper 50s to low 60s along the mountains and low to mid 70s
across the lowlands. Coupled with low humidity values, the area
will be able to relish the comfortable weather with no concerns
for heat and humidity for several days.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 105 PM Saturday...

Strong influence from surface high pressure will keep the
forecast area predominantly dry throughout the work week.
Overnight river valley fog and/or low stratus will branch into
fair weather cumulus fields each afternoon amid cool and
comfortable conditions while the high is nestled overhead.

A slight warming trend will begin to take shape late in the work
week as the dominating high starts its eastward exodus out of
the area. Warm air advection will resume under southerly flow,
promoting afternoon high temperatures to rise back into the low
80s across the Tri-State area beginning on Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 850 PM Saturday...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are currently affecting the
northeast mountains and nearby lowlands, with this trend
expected to continue for the next hour or two. This brings the
potential for brief MVFR/IFR VSBY at CKB, with restrictions
likely at EKN. Following this, ISOLD showers are possible
overnight, primarily southeast of the Ohio River, potentially
resulting in a few brief MVFR VSBY restrictions. The bigger
concern will be the development of low stratus and patchy fog
overnight. Confidence in either is only low/medium, but overall,
think stratus will be more problematic. MVFR/IFR has been coded
into most TAFs beginning later tonight. Any fog that develops
will lift by ~13Z, with stratus potentially taking an hour or
two longer to mix out. Following this, mainly VFR conditions
will prevail throughout the day, with the two exceptions being
the potential for brief MVFR late morning and early afternoon
w/ stratocu, and also w/ ISOLD showers/storms throughout the day.

Light and variable or calm flow is expected overnight, with
light WSW to WNW flow on Sunday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low to medium overnight, medium on Sunday.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Restrictions overnight with fog and/or low
stratus may vary from the forecast. Brief MVFR could occur with
stratocu and/or ISOLD showers/storms on Sunday.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            SUN 08/24/25
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    M    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    M

AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
IFR possible in river valley fog each morning beginning on Monday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEK
NEAR TERM...MEK/GW
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...MEK
AVIATION...GW