079
FXUS61 KRLX 250629
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
229 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
06Z Aviation Forecast Discussion update. Potential for strong to
severe thunderstorms late Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- 1) Isolated to scattered showers and storms this weekend.

- 2) Passing disturbances Monday and Tuesday will lead to
  scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some could be strong or
  even severe. Flash flooding is also possible Monday night and
  Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

High pressure remains an influence through weekend as it remains
parked nearby or overhead leading to drier conditions for most
this weekend. A series of weak disturbances are projected to
move through each afternoon leading to chances for isolated
showers and thunderstorms across the northeastern mountains this
afternoon and more scattered activity on Sunday. Severe weather
is not expected, but an isolated strong storm cannot be ruled
out, especially along the upslope side of the mountains.

Temperatures will continue on a warming trend through the
weekend with mid to upper 80s this afternoon and Sunday
afternoon across the usual warm spots in the lowlands.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Shortwave disturbances are still slated to cross the area late
Monday and Tuesday leading to an unsettled weather pattern
emerging as we start the new week. Most of Monday will be dry,
outside of the chance for a decaying MCS that some models show
moving across Kentucky and southern West Virginia early in the
morning. Whether or not this affects the secondary activation of
convection remains unknown, but CAPE is projected to recover to
about 1,000-2,000 J/Kg in the afternoon. The latest NAM run has
scattered showers and thunderstorms reforming late in the
afternoon and through the evening. Some storms may be strong to
severe, mostly across our portions of the Ohio River Valley as
upper-level support from a jet enters the area. Still many
details that need to be ironed out once hi-res guidance gets in
range.

Flash flooding looks to be an issue with this activity late
Monday with rounds of heavy rainfall, but particularly on
Tuesday, as PWATs between 1.50" and 2.25" move over the area.
The NAM currently shows a swath of an inch to an inch and a half
of rainfall being picked up across our Kentucky counties and
far northern West Virginia.

A drier spell looks to arrive on Wednesday behind this active
pattern, spanning the rest of the week as high pressure
continues to settle in. Still, isolated chances for afternoon
storms will exist due to peak heating and a `dirty ridge`
setting up.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

A mix of low stratus and patchy valley fog makes for a bit of a
tricky forecast this morning. SCT to OVC CIGs between 2,000 and
9,000 feet AGL will be common across the lowlands with possible
patchy BR or FG under any breaks in the clouds. ISO showers are
possible until ~09z across the northeastern mountains.
Afterwards, expecting IFR and LIFR low stratus to form in its
wake. BKW will experience the lowest CIGs, possibly between 100
and 500 feet AGL. EKN is most likely to join in, but
southeasterly flow from the sfc to 925MB may be a hindrance.

Expecting VFR to resume as any low stratus and fog dissipates by
~13z. FEW to SCT CU fields between 3,000 and 7,000 feet AGL
will then form from late morning through the afternoon; 2,000 to
3,500 BKN CIGs are likely into the afternoon at BKW, CKB, and
EKN.

Winds will be light and variable to calm this morning across the
lowlands; light and SE`rly across the mountains. W`rly winds
between 4 and 10 knots are expected during the day Saturday.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW this morning, HIGH after ~12z

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Low stratus and fog could be more impactful
than advertised. Low stratus may not manifest at EKN.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                        SAT 07/25/26
UTC 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
EDT 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    L    M    H    H    H    H    L

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR conditions are possible with river valley fog Sunday
morning, and also with showers and thunderstorms late Monday
through Tuesday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LTC
AVIATION...LTC