469
FXUS61 KRLX 161041
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
641 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather continues behind a cold front with cooler
temperatures and some frost/freeze in store. Warmer on Saturday
with rain/thunderstorm chances returning through Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 215 AM Thursday...

Looking a bit pessimistic for frost this morning as northerly
winds have stayed a light clip and dew points are staying in the
40s. Some mid-level cloud cover still remains over the area,
but models show that clearing will gradually occur from
northeast to southwest the next few hours. Subsequently, this
will lead to the mixing down of drier dew points later this
morning. Lows have been stubborn to drop in accordance with
central guidance, so did stray away and raise them a few
degrees. Eventually most sites, specifically the sheltered river
and mountain valleys will decouple leading to crisp morning
temperatures in the 40s with a few locations in the mountains
dropping into the upper 30s. That said, some patchy frost is
likely in the northeastern mountain valleys, but outside of that
locale it is a gamble.

Fog also remains an enigma tonight due to the 925-850MB flow
aloft streaming along between 20 and 50 knots. Fog will mostly
be a concern along the Ohio River, mountain valleys, and
portions of the coalfields. Sites in these areas are either
decoupled or have a small dew point depression.

Our Thursday will be cooler with crystal clear skies. Dry
weather will remain in place with stout upper-level ridging and
surface high pressure overhead. High temperatures will be a
slightly lower departure from normal with the lowlands staying
in the 60s to around 70 degrees. The mountains meanwhile will
staying the 50s to the lower 60s. Winds may be breezy at times
along the mountain ridges with a pressure gradient gradually
departing to the east.

Frost looks to be more promising and widespread tonight as skies
will be clearer, winds calm, and temperatures colder. Lows look
to back down into the 30s for most locations and the mountains
could see some upper 20s. That said, freeze watch for the higher
elevations tonight into Friday will likely be upgraded to a
freeze warning; frost advisories likely across a majority of
the mountains and northern lowlands of West Virginia and Ohio.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 235 AM Thursday...

Areas of frost and fog Friday morning, then dry and mostly
clear. High temperatures will be a bit warmer than Thursday with
the usual warm spots in the lowlands possibly achieving the
lower 70s. Dew points will remain in the 30s and 40s, so RHs
will be very dry with most of the forecast area seeing
percentages in the 20s and 30s. Luckily, fire weather will be of
lower concern as winds will be too light. Still, heightened
risk of fire start will exist with this dry airmass.

Some changes on Saturday with high temperatures climbing above
normal with high 70s and lower 80s in store for the lowlands
with the mountains in the 60s and 70s. Otherwise the daytime
hours for Saturday showcase passing clouds and mostly dry
weather.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 310 AM Thursday...

Clouds and precipitation chances increase late Saturday night
ahead of a strong cold front and very vigorous trough
approaching from the west. Mostly expecting showers across our
Ohio counties and maybe far western West Virginia.

The main weather day will be Sunday with a wet, windy, and
showery day in store. Aforementioned trough moves overhead with
some Gulf moisture moving up with southerly return flow. Some
afternoon thunderstorms will be possible, but there are no
severe outlooks currently from SPC. There is a marginal risk for
excessive rainfall from WPC on Sunday due to heavy rainfall
expected in some showers. PWATs are expected to close in on an
inch and half for some locations. Most rainfall is expected to
be beneficial though given the drought conditions across the
forecast area.

Next week looks cooler with chances for some rain from passing
disturbances Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 640 AM Thursday...

Some patchy valley fog is possible this morning, but otherwise
VFR will remain in place. IFR or lower conditions could be
possible at CRW, EKN, and PKB as a result of fog formation.

Fog lifts and scatters by ~14z this morning, yielding to clear
skies and VFR conditions.

Winds will be northerly and light through the period, breezy at
times across the mountains. Some gusts between 10 and 20 knots
are possible at EKN and BKW this afternoon.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of improvement to VFR may vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS
CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
Patchy IFR river valley fog is possible Friday and Saturday
mornings. IFR in rain is possible Sunday and Sunday night.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for WVZ032-039-040-
     521>526.
     Freeze Watch from late tonight through Friday morning for
     WVZ039-040-521>526.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LTC
NEAR TERM...LTC
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...LTC