494
FXUS61 KRLX 301741
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
141 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Persistent hot/humid conditions will continue into Thursday, with
a crossing cold front providing much cooler conditions for Friday.
Isolated/scattered afternoon thunderstorms are possible until then.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 140 PM Wednesday...

Key Points:

 * Extreme Heat Warning and Heat Advisory remains in effect for
   the lowlands until 8 PM this evening.

 * Cold front brings a relief in heat conditions, with drier/cooler
   airmass filtering in through the weekend.

General guidance suggests the probability of heat index exceeding
100 percent this afternoon is high, around 70-80 percent. Therefore,
heat headlines will continue until 8 PM this evening.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop once
again this afternoon and evening across the area. This convection is
triggered by ample humidity, heat and bouyancy under poor deep
layered shear. These ingredients suggest slow-moving storm could
produce localized heavy downpours this afternoon, but again,
coverage should be limited.

It will be muggy tonight with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. The
NBM shows a good signal for dense river valley fog development once
again tonight.

In terms of heat, abundant cloudiness and cooling showers should
help to mitigate afternoon temperatures on Thursday, allowing heat
index values to remain at or under the 100 degree mark. Therefore,
decrease dewpoints Thursday afternoon as they look to high mid to
upper 70s in order to lower heat index values. Since advisory
criteria will not be met widespread, perhaps the event can be
treated with a Special Weather Statement. Will let next shifts
to decide whether an advisory may be needed for portions of the
lowlands for Thursday.

A cold front approaches from the northwest overnight, stalling
across our north by Thursday morning. This feature will bring good
chances for showers and storms on Thursday and Thursday night. Some
storms could be strong to severe. SPC has portions of our northeast
sections under a Marginal Risk for severe storms, while the rest of
the area in under a general thunderstorms level.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 140 PM Wednesday...

By Friday, the front pushes further south away from the area, while
a high pressure builds behind it. This high will bring cooler and
drier airmass to the area through the end of the week, with near
seasonal temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 140 PM Wednesday...

Dry and pleasant weather is expected during the beginning of
next week as a broad high pressure over the Great Lakes takes
control. Then, general guidance bring a weak surface low
pressure system and associated occluded front crossing our area
from west to east Tuesday to Wednesday. Therefore, expect
showers and storms to return by mid week with temperatures
returning to near-seasonal normals.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 140 PM Wednesday...

Under an environment characterized by high moisture (PWATs around 2
inches), high bouyancy (SBCAPE exceeding 3000 J/kg) and poor deep
layered shear, expect widely scattered showers and thunderstorms to
develop this afternoon into the evening hours. Sites most likely to
be affected will be EKN and BKN over the higher terrain, but CRW
could be hit directly be a storm this afternoon. Expect brief
periods of IFR/LIFR conditions under heavier showers or storms.

By this evening, convection loses the afternoon heating, diminishing
in coverage and intensity. There is a good signal from NBM on dense
fog development overnight tonight. Conditions may start widespread
VFR tonight, but dense IFR/LIFR fog is expected to develop once
again mainly along the river valleys during the overnight hours.
Terminals most likely to be affected will be EKN, BKW, PKB and CRW.
Coded these conditions at those sites accordingly. Any fog or low
stratus will gradually lift or dissipate by 13-14Z.

A cold front arrives early Thursday morning, to stall across our
area through Thursday evening. A similar environment is expected on
Thursday, with an uptick in deep layered shear about 30-35 knots
across the northern sections. This environment will probably
support scattered to numerous showers and scattered
thunderstorms into Thursday night. Very heavy rain and strong to
damaging winds may be possible with this convection. IFR/LIFR
conditions expected along heavier showers and storms. Convection
should wane Thursday evening as the front moves further south,
allowing a high pressure to build behind it.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, extent, and density of fog
this morning may vary from the forecast. Timing of VCTS may vary
slightly from the forecast this afternoon.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR conditions are possible with valley fog Thursday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     WVZ005>008-013>017.
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for WVZ009>011-
     018>020-024>031.
OH...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     OHZ083>087.
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ075-076.
KY...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     KYZ101>103-105.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...ARJ