166
FXUS61 KRLX 111240
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
840 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
The chance for showers and storms increases early this week
amid increasing humidity, peaks mid week, then decreases and
becomes more diurnal late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 840 AM Monday...

Other than a slight increase in cloud cover across the south
from the previous forecast, no changes were deemed to be
necessary.

As of 645 AM Monday...

The forecast is on track, with fog in the deeper valleys, mainly
north. GOES-R nighttime microphysics imagery also indicated
fog/stratus banked up along the east-southeast facing slopes of
the mountains in Pocahontas County.

As of 215 AM Monday...

Surface high pressure shifts east of the area today and tonight,
but, with the help of mid/upper-level high pressure holding
firm overhead, maintains mainly dry weather. Low level return
south to southeast flow around the high will bring increasing
moisture, enough for the pop-up afternoon shower or thunderstorm
over the higher terrain, but capped at slight chance to chance.

Low level flow up to 20 kts in the guidance early this morning
was supported by the RLX VAD wind profile, and should preclude
fog in all but the deeper mountain valleys. Guidance hits the
fog much harder overnight tonight amid slightly weaker low
level flow, as the surface high moves east, and a surface
trough over the midwest lifts northeast and weakens a bit.

Temperatures today top out near or a bit higher than on Sunday,
and then bottom out a bit higher tonight compared with early
this morning, above normal on both counts.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 215 AM Monday...

Moisture continues to increase this period amid south to
southwest flow level flow between offshore high pressure, and
systems approaching from the west.

The tail end of a mid/upper-level short wave trough approaches
Tuesday, and then drifts across the area Tuesday night. With the
increased moisture, this not only brings the chance for
afternoon showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon, but keeps
the chance going overnight as well.

A second, trailing southern stream short wave trough
approaches Wednesday, pushing a surface cold front closer to
the area, with a further increase in low and mid level moisture
ahead of it. Showers and thunderstorms are likely to be around
Wednesday afternoon as a result. With the short wave actually
crossing overnight Wednesday night, the chance for showers and
thunderstorms again lingers into the overnight hours.

Storms will contain heavy downpours, and overall be slow to
move in the light flow regime. Localized flooding will be
possible Wednesday afternoons, but widespread issues are not
anticipated due to antecedent dry conditions. The severe
weather potential appears to be relatively low during the
period.

Temperatures continue to be above normal this period, but
convection Wednesday afternoon may suppress high temperatures a
bit compared with Tuesday. Adjusted afternoon dew points down
slightly from central guidance for Tuesday and Wednesday. After
recalculation of Maximum Apparent Temperatures, lowland values
are corralled below 100 F, largely in the mid to upper 90s,
precluding the potential need for Heat Advisories in future
packages. Overnights will be warm and muggy.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 215 AM Monday...

Mid/upper-level ridging rebuilds Thursday through Friday, but a
weak mid/upper-level low nearby south of the ridge. All of this
lowers but does not entirely eliminate the chance for showers
and thunderstorms, but does keep them confined more to the
afternoon and early evening hours, for the latter half of the
work week and next weekend.

Storms will contain heavy downpours, and overall be slow to
move in the light flow regime. Localized flooding will be
possible Thursday and Friday afternoons, but widespread issues
are not anticipated due to decreasing coverage. The severe
weather potential should remain relatively low during the
period.

Central guidance reflects temperatures gradually returning to
above normal levels, And afternoon heat indices may creep toward
Heat advisory criteria over the lowlands next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 645 AM Monday...

Any remaining fog/stratus EKN should lift/dissipate by 13Z.

Otherwise high pressure will maintain VFR conditions with an
afternoon cumulus field. An increase in moisture may be enough
for the pop-up afternoon shower or thunderstorm over the higher
terrain /EKN-BKW/. Added a PROB30 TSRA for BKW as the chance is
a bit higher south.

Guidance hits the fog much harder overnight tonight amid
slightly weaker low level flow, and the forecast leans toward
the less pessimistic of the guidance, with VLIFR EKN and MVFR
CRW and PKB 08 or 09Z until 12Z.

Surface flow will be light and variable to light south to
southeast. Flow aloft will be light south, veering to light west
by dawn Tuesday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Confidence in afternoon convection in the
mountains was low, but inclusion may be needed in later
forecasts at EKN and amendments may be needed at EKN and/or
BKW. Fog formation overnight tonight may vary from forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EDT 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
IFR conditions are possible in mid afternoon storms the rest of
the work week, especially on Wednesday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM/sl
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...TRM