633
FXUS61 KRLX 230505
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1205 AM EST Sun Feb 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry through Monday with moderating temperatures. There is a
chance for light precipitation on Tuesday, and then a better
chance for precipitation Wednesday night through Thursday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1205 AM Sunday...

A surface high pressure system will provide dry weather today
and tonight. Temperatures today will moderate a bit, but still
remain below normal for this time of year. An upper level
disturbance will move across tonight providing some clouds to
central Ohio and northern West Virginia, but no precipitation is
expected with this disturbance.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 PM Saturday...

Dry air associated with remnant arctic high pressure rules the
roost this period, as the high sits over the southeast and
middle Atlantic states, keeping Gulf and Atlantic moisture at
bay. As a result, warm advection low-level flow beneath west to
northwest mid/upper-level flow does not moisten up the
atmosphere much, and a mid/upper-level short wave trough
crossing Tuesday may barely be able to squeeze out a shower
across northern portions of the area, with the small
probability of a snow shower over the higher mountainous
terrain.

The system pulls out Tuesday evening without much of a cold
frontal passage, allowing high pressure to build back in by dawn
Wednesday. Low cloud to begin Tuesday night give way to some
increase in high cloud toward dawn Wednesday.

Lowered lows from central guidance in the normally colder spots
Sunday night, even with patchy mid/high cloud. While cold,
Sunday night will not be as cold as recent nights or even
tonight, and the warming trend in general continues. Radiative
cooling under high pressure Tuesday night, again amid some
cloud, stunts the warming trend on lows temporarily.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 245 PM Saturday...

High pressure right over the forecast area Wednesday morning
sets up a dry Wednesday, with a chilly morning followed by a
milder afternoon, as the warming trend starting this weekend
resumes.

A southern stream short wave trough crosses late Wednesday night
through Thursday. It may be able to tap a bit more moisture than
its early week predecessor. However, even as high pressure to
the south and east weakens and exits, the southern stream system
will still not be able to tap much Gulf or Atlantic moisture, as
low level flow beneath it remains light. While precipitation
may be more widepsread compared with Tuesday, amounts will be
light.

The chance for thunder with this system appears quite small,
given a morning frontal passage and a dearth of moisture, as
suggested by surface dew points only climbing into the mid 40s
ahead of it. The system will be able to pull a cold front
through the area Thursday morning, and snow showers are
possible, at least in the mountains, Thursday night, before
precipitation ends on Friday.

High pressure of Pacific origin pays a brief visit Friday
afternoon. A northern stream mid/upper-level short wave trough
then drives a cold front at least into the area on Saturday,
with the chance for showers, possibly snow showers across the
higher mountainous terrain.

After the warming trend to start the long term period,
temperatures drop back to normal to end the work week amid air
of Pacific origin behind the cold front, but then climb back
above normal ahead of the next cold front on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1205 AM Sunday...

VFR conditions can be expected through the period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  SUN 02/23/25
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EST 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR conditions are possible in precipitation by the middle of
the week.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RPY/TRM
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...RPY