960
FXUS61 KRLX 122217
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
617 PM EDT Fri Sep 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure yields dry conditions with warm afternoons and
cool nights through next week. The extended dry period may lead
to an increased risk for fire starts.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 120 PM Friday...

Key Messages:

* A long period of dry weather is expected, lasting through the
  weekend and continuing into much of next week.

* The combination of dry conditions and low humidity may
  increase the risk for brush fires to start and spread. Please
  exercise caution with any open flames or spark-producing
  equipment.

A large area of high pressure remains anchored over the region this
afternoon, promoting continued dry weather under mostly sunny skies.
With a dry airmass in place, afternoon mixing will allow relative
humidity values to drop into the upper 20s to lower 30s for many
lowland locations. Winds will remain light, generally under 5 mph.
While the combination of low humidity and dry fuels will create an
elevated risk for accidental fire starts, the light winds should
mitigate the threat of rapid spread.

Clear skies and light winds tonight will once again allow for strong
radiational cooling, leading to the development of valley fog after
midnight. The fog may become dense in river valleys and areas
subject to cold air drainage away from major rivers. Lows will be in
the low to mid 50s. The fog will lift and dissipate by mid-morning
Saturday, giving way to another sunny and dry day with temperatures
beginning to climb into the mid 80s for most low elevation sites.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 120 PM Friday...

Upper level ridging will begin to build into the Ohio Valley
Saturday night, keeping the region dry. A weak disturbance passing
well to the north may introduce some high cloudiness, but a very dry
low-level airmass will preclude any chance of measurable rainfall.
Continued clear skies and calm conditions Saturday night will allow
for another round of valley fog development into Sunday morning.

The upper ridge will amplify and center itself over the Ohio and
Mississippi Valleys Sunday into Monday. This will result in a
continued warming trend, with afternoon high temperatures reaching
the upper 80s across the Metro Valley and southern coalfields, with
some spots potentially touching 90 degrees on Monday. These
temperatures are around 10 degrees above normal for mid-
September. Continued dry conditions and afternoon relative
humidity values in the 30s will maintain an elevated fire
weather concern.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 120 PM Friday...

The dominant upper level ridge will persist through the first half
of the new work week, maintaining hot and dry conditions. Highs on
Tuesday will again be in the upper 80s to near 90 in the lowlands.

Confidence in the forecast begins to decrease by the middle of the
week. Global models indicate the potential for a low pressure system
to develop off the southeast coast, attempting to retrograde
westward underneath the ridge. While there is considerable
uncertainty in the track and intensity of this feature, it
represents the first potential for rainfall in over a week. For now,
central guidance confines slight chances for showers to the eastern
mountain counties, particularly along the windward slopes, from
Wednesday afternoon onward. Elsewhere, central guidance remains dry
with temperatures slowly moderating back toward seasonal normals by
the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 615 PM Friday...

VFR conditions can be expected through the period, with the
exception of some dense late night river valley fog.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High, medium with fog.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of fog forming and the airports
affected could vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
EDT 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
IFR conditions are possible in valley fog each morning through
at least early next week.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...RPY