109
FXUS61 KRLX 070010
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
810 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front moves south tonight before stalling overhead on Saturday.
Expect showers and storms, some with localized heavy rain tonight
into Saturday. Active weather persists into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 800 PM Friday...

Radar imagery shows a lull in precipitation between showers
exiting east of the Appalachians at the time of writing, and
the next batch of convection over central KY expected later
evening. This second batch of showers and thunderstorms will
gradually diminish in intensity and coverage as it affects most
areas tonight. However, localized heavy downpours can not be
ruled out through early Saturday morning.

Adjusted hourly temperatures and dewpoints as showers and storms
interrupt the diurnal trend. Adjusted PoPs according to the
latest HRRR, with convection moving in across NE KY, and SE OH
before midnight, spreading east through the overnight hours.

As of 240 PM Friday...

Key Points

 * Scattered showers and storms quickly developing this
   afternoon ahead of a sagging cold front.

 * The slow nature of these storms may yield locally heavy
   downpours and resultant high water issues.

 * The front is anticipated to wobble over the area into the
   start of the weekend.

Surface analysis at the time of writing painted a stalled cold
front through the Ohio Valley, with waves of low pressure
progressing along the boundary. Our forecast area remains in the
warm sector of this slow progressing feature, with rapid shower
and storm development once again today within the afternoon
agitated cumulus field. Mesoanalysis depicts favorable
destabilization in addition to an encroaching low level jet,
which will work in tandem to sustain convection through the
course of the afternoon and evening. Thunderstorm chances
lingering late into the nighttime hours, but will then shift to
mainly heavy showers heading into Saturday.

The frontal boundary slips down into or on the western outskirts
of the forecast area late tonight into Saturday morning.
Additional impulses of moisture ride along the boundary late
tonight into Saturday morning, maintaining periods of moderate
to locally heavy downpours during the course of the front`s
residency. The boundary is progged to nudge southward Saturday
afternoon and will yield lower chances for showers and storms in
comparison to this afternoon`s POP forecast. However, we will
not fully escape the front for long, as it will continue to
wobble over the region through much of the weekend.

Overall rainfall totals will be reliant on where swaths of
showers and storms set up shop through the course of the period.
Timeframe of note for the best QPF production will be overnight
tonight as the front drapes itself through the area. Model
guidance outputs continue to be highly varied in overall
amounts, with a few overzealous models producing over two inches
of rain in some spots. Confidence remains low in regards to
where the heavy downpours will set up and/or potential for
training activity, so pinpointing locations where flooding is
likely to occur continues to be low. Will retain strong wording
in the HWO for high water issues possible in renowned trouble
spots overnight into Saturday morning.

Temperatures will be highly variable this afternoon in the
midst of passing showers and storms. Strong cold pools
associated with activity will cool temperatures down 5 to 10
degrees, but should rebound quickly during peaking heating
hours. Otherwise, forecast highs today will span the upper 70s
to 80s across the lower elevations and into the 60s/70s along
the spine of the mountains. Similar forecast highs are
anticipated on Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1246 PM Friday...

Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected Sunday as a warm
front lifts north through the region and a 500-mb vort. max crosses
from the west. PWATs will be slightly lower Sunday, ranging from
1.25-1.50" across the region. However, slow-moving downpours are
still possible. In addition, saturated soils from recent heavy
rainfall can lead to quicker instances of localized flooding.
The areas at greatest risk of flash flooding would be urban
areas and in any training cells. 25-30 kts of 0-6km shear and
800-1,000 J/kg of MLCAPE can lead to a few strong to severe
thunderstorms during the afternoon. The main threats appear to
be damaging winds and hail. A marginal risk of severe weather
and excessive rainfall are both outlooked for Sunday.

A cold front will still be west of the County Warning Area Monday,
so showers and thunderstorms will remain possible once again,
especially during the afternoon. Building afternoon instability and
modest shear will create additional chances for damaging wind gusts
and large hail.

Temperatures will reach the upper 70s Sunday with widespread clouds
and convection. Monday will be a bit warmer with our region located
in the warm sector and more breaks of sunshine expected. High
temperatures will be in the lower 80s Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1246 PM Friday...

A cold front will cross through the region midday Tuesday, leaving
dry and quiet weather in its wake. Temperatures in the upper 70s to
lower 80s Tuesday and Wednesday will rise to the middle and upper
80s by Thursday and Friday as a large upper-level ridge moves over
the eastern portion of the country.  The next chance of widespread
rain will be towards the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 741 PM Friday...

Slow moving cold front crosses south over the area overnight
into early Saturday. This front will pose a low probability for
showers or storms overnight, increasing in coverage and
intensity Saturday afternoon. Meanwhile, expect IFR conditions
under low stratus mainly over areas that received rainfall
today, PKB, EKN, BKW, and CRW. Other sites may experience
VFR/MVFR ceilings overnight.

CAMs guidance suggests a cluster of showers and thunderstorms
arriving to NE KY, SE OH and portions of WV around midnight
(04Z). This activity will spread east to affect other terminals
into Saturday morning. Expect periods of IFR/LIFR conditions
under heavier showers or storms.

By Saturday morning, most terminals should experience MVFR/IFR
ceilings during the predawn hours, then gradually rising to VFR
during the afternoon.

Light and variable winds south of the front, and light northwest
winds behind the front are expected tonight. Periods of calm
winds will be possible at most terminals overnight. However,
winds could be gusty nearby storms.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of deteriorating ceilings overnight
may vary. Timing of convection affecting any terminal could
vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            SAT 06/07/25
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    H    L    L    L    L    M    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    H    H    H    M    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    H    H    L    L    L    M    M    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    H    H    H    L    M    L    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    L    M    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    M    L    M    M    H

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
IFR conditions at times in showers and thunderstorms through
Tuesday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEK/JMC
NEAR TERM...MEK/ARJ
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...ARJ