373
FXUS61 KRLX 121620
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1120 AM EST Wed Feb 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Significant winter storm continuing in the mountains into
Thursday, with heavy rain far south as the next system crosses.
Yet another brings increased flooding concerns this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1120 AM Wednesday...

Have allowed the remainder of the winter headlines, in portions
of the middle Ohio Valley, and the higher terrain of the central
mountains of WV, to expire. Temperatures were still at or even
slightly below freezing in spots, especially over the higher
terrain, but midday insolation and a dearth of measurable
precipitation should mitigate the threat.

An Ice Storm Warning remains in effect for the higher terrain
and southeast facing slopes of the northeast mountains, and a
Flood Watch remains in affect across far southern portions of
the area, all for the next system coming up through the area in
waves later this afternoon into Thursday. Will reevaluate the
need for any sort of expansion of these this afternoon.

As of 1015 AM Wednesday...Corrected

Increased PoPs and lowered temperatures slightly in the middle
Ohio valley, where a Winter Weather Advisory for spotty light
freezing rain or drizzle continues until 11 AM. The Winter
Storm Warnings continue in the mountains until 11 AM where a
glaze of ice is still possible. The Ice Storm Warning goes into
effect at 11 AM in the northern mountains for the next system.

Nixed the remaining Winter Weather Advisories and Winter Storm
Warnings for much of West Virginia.

As of 630 AM Wednesday...

Forecast remains on track this morning with no necessary
updates. Latest radar scans continue to depict a plume of
moisture moving in a southwest to northeasterly fashion, with
surface temperatures dictating precipitation type. This remains
in a snow/freezing rain regime in areas where winter headlines
remain present, so have opted to keep those in place for the
time being.

As of 300 AM Wednesday...

Key Points:

 * Wintry precipitation comes to an end this morning across the
   northern lowlands, while freezing rain prospers along the
   higher terrain today into tonight.

 * Renewed precipitation chances return tonight, posing
   concerns for localized flooding across the southern
   coalfields.

Radar activity has lessened early this morning as the plume of
moisture that amplified the unsettled weather on Tuesday has now
shifted to the south and east. Main items of note during the
predawn hours will be a ribbon of showers streaming into our
extreme northwestern zones that could embody snow and freezing
rain/drizzle. Local observations in southeast Ohio and north-
central West Virginia indicate surface temperatures hovering
between 30 and 32 degrees, with light hydrometeors falling as
either snow or ice pellets. The forecast hinted at such an event
for the past several days, and should lead to one last batch of
wintry accumulations before daybreak. Will hold onto winter
headlines early this morning to account for this swath that
could cause slick travel from the combination of ice and snow,
but could foresee this being dropped quickly with the arrival of
the oncoming shift.

The forecast area remains deep in the trenches beneath a
blanket of overcast skies today, with occasional periods of
light drizzle or rain in the midst of surface temperatures
rising throughout the day. There will be a brief intermission
break this afternoon from heavy shower potential before the next
segment of active weather reveals itself by this evening. Mid-
level energy ejecting off the Rocky Mountains will yield
developing low pressure at the surface, beginning in the lower
Midwest region this morning before dashing across the Ohio
Valley later on today. The Central Appalachians looks to remain
in a dry slot for the early afternoon before filling back in
overnight in response to a warm front driving northward. This
will then be followed by a surface cold front venturing into
the area Thursday morning.

Renewed precipitation tonight could once again spark concern
for localized flooding for at least the southern coalfields.
Given the active Flood Watch already in effect, it was elected
alongside the Jackson, KY forecast office to extend the Watch
through Thursday morning instead of going through the trouble of
reissuing a new product with the afternoon forecast package
today. A combination of melting snow and additional rainfall
expected within the near term period were the primary concerns
behind the choice to extend the Watch.

While the predominant precip-type for the lower elevations is
anticipated to be rain after this morning, thermal profiles
along the higher mountain range will continue to support
prospering freezing rain and sleet through the end of the
forecast period. An additional few tenths of an inch could be
picked up across Pocahontas and southeast Randolph Counties
overnight, which warranted the previous issuance of the Ice
Storm Warning. This will run through the predawn hours Thursday
morning before freezing rain undergoes a transition to rain as
surface temperatures rise in the wake of the warm front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 220 AM Wednesday...

Cold front will be exiting the area early Thursday and PoPs should
quickly diminish after frontal passage as dryer, colder air is
ushered in under a brief period of cold air advection. This will
provide much more seasonable temperatures for Thursday night through
Friday night before the next system approaches from the west. Expect
Friday to be dry with a few stratocumulus post-frontal passage.

Winds will be gusty on Thursday with westerly winds turning
northwest of 20-30 mph before diminishing Thursday evening. Winds
will be stronger across the northeast WV mountains with gusts of
around 30-40 mph before diminishing overnight Thursday. These gusty
winds, combined with much colder temperatures, will create wind
chills between 5 and 10 below across the northeast WV mountains
Thursday night into early Friday morning and an advisory may be
needed for those areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 220 AM Wednesday...

Active weather at the forefront of the long term, with a broad
frontal system poised to slide southeast across the Ohio Valley late
Friday into Saturday in addition to a developing surface low across
the southern U.S. deepening and merging with the more progressive
system, bringing with it a broad swath of abundant moisture. Strong
warm air advection will be underway early Saturday raising
temperatures steadily throughout the day and overnight into Sunday,
with Sunday`s high temperatures likely occurring overnight across the
entire area.

The first area of concern Saturday morning is the potential for
freezing rain across the northeast mountains of WV and the
Greenbrier Valley in Pocahontas county. There is also the potential
for a very brief wintry mix across SE Ohio and northern WV before a
rapid changeover to rain is expected with maybe a hundreth of an
inch of ice possible. In the higher elevations, there is the
potential for warning criteria ice early Saturday before that area
also changes to all rain Saturday afternoon. This could lead to
power outages, downed trees and lines, and dangerous travel,
primarily across the northeast mountains and Pocahontas county. This
is especially dangerous given the prolonged period of rain and
potential for flooding that is expected Saturday into Sunday.

WPC has placed the entire forecast area in a SLGT risk for excessive
rainfall for Saturday, with a MDT area encroaching the area just to
the west. It appears that we are likely to see a widespread swath of
at least 2-3 inches of rain during this event, with the potential
for higher totals depending on where the axis of heavier
precipitation sets up, as well as the potential for thunderstorms.
This will likely lead to significant flooding across a good portion
of the area, especially in areas still recovering from previous
flooding and areas where soil remains saturated due to short
recovery times between precipitation. PWAT values are well over 200%
of normal value for this time of year and some areas pushing the
300% mark, which suggests that we will likely see most of the area
push the higher end of the aforementioned rain totals and likely
exceed it in some areas with probabilistic guidance suggesting that
most of the area has an 80% chance of exceeding 2" of rainfall, with
a near 50% chance of 3" exceedance across southern and southwestern
portions of the forecast area.

After the front pushes through Sunday, colder air will rush in
quickly providing a brief period of wintry precipitation providing a
chance at some light snow accumulations before tapering off. It is
still uncertain how quickly moisture will be cut off after the
frontal passage but given the strong frontal gradient we will likely
see at least a short period of snow before dry air and high pressure
take hold early next week. This will also lead to some gusty winds
as well with higher terrain nearing advisory territory Sunday night.
With cold temperatures also in place it is likely we will also need
cold weather headlines for the mtns. Cold air advection takes over
afterwards providing much more seasonable temperatures for the
remainder of the extended period with a much needed break in
precipitation as well.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 630 AM Wednesday...

The area is currently positioned in between low pressure systems
today, but remaining entrenched beneath LIFR/IFR/MVFR ceilings
and vsbys at the time of writing. A swath of precipitation
streaming across the northern half of the forecast area ths
morning will be capable of producing a variety of wintry
weather, strongly dictated by surface temperatures.

Slight improvements to ceilings are expected for a time later
this morning into the afternoon, but will quickly deteriorate
once more tonight as the next disturbance ventures into the
area. Above freezing temperatures in most locations will yield
rain as the predominant p-type, but freezing rain will be
ongoing along the higher terrain. Ice accretion is expected in
areas that observe freezing rain.

A frontal boundary will be inching its way into the area near
the conclusion of the valid TAF period. Ahead of its arrival, an
uptick in low level winds will insinuate potential for LLWS late
Wednesday night into early Thursday morning on the order of 45
to 55kts at the time of the flight column. Surface flow will
shift out of the northwest in its wake Thursday morning.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Ceilings and vsbys may vary this morning
in and outside of precipitation.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EST 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    L    H    H    M    M    L    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR conditions possible once again this weekend within moderate
to heavy rain, likely changing to snow sometime on Sunday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for WVZ024-033.
     Ice Storm Warning until 4 AM EST Thursday for WVZ523-524-526.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for VAZ003-004.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...28/MEK/TRM
NEAR TERM...MEK/TRM
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...MEK