849
FXUS61 KRLX 230330
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1030 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Wintry precipitation continues with an upper-level low to our
northeast, bringing accumulating snow in the mountains, through
Saturday. Dry Sunday into early Monday. Rain returns Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1030 PM Friday...

Continuing to see a decent moisture fetch originating from
Lake Erie traverse the area tonight. Temperatures have risen
quite a bit from early this afternoon. Many locations in the
lowlands are reporting low to mid 40s and many locations under
3,500 feet have risen to the mid to high 30s. That said, most
precipitation is falling as rain across the lowlands, while the
heavy snowfall remains in the higher elevations of the
northeastern WV mountains.

This will continue through the night as will breezy winds in the
lowlands; gusty winds in the mountains, especially the higher
elevations above 3,500 feet, where blizzard warnings remain in
effect until 10 AM Saturday.

As of 435 PM Friday...

Extended the Winter Weather Advisory in Taylor County until 6 PM
this evening. Still seeing some hefty bands of precipitation
moving over this area and temperatures have been reluctant to
reach forecasted highs today due to cloud cover and moisture.
Warm air intrusion will gradually take over this evening into
the night allowing for snow to change over to rain. Expecting
additional light accumulations of about 1 to 3 inches across the
area, with locally higher amounts across the higher elevations.


As of 145 PM Friday...

A Blizzard Warning is in effect for Northwest Pocahontas and
Southeastern Randolph counties until 15Z Saturday where
significant snowfall and blowing snow, as a result of strong
winds will reduce visibility to below a quarter of a mile for a
prolonged period of time today into early Saturday and snowfall
totals of 1 to 2 feet with locally higher amounts possible. A
Winter Storm Warning will follow the Blizzard Warning from 15Z
Saturday until 00Z for additional snow accumulations and blowing
snow.

A Winter Storm Warning is in effect for the surrounding mountain
counties in northeast and eastern WV until 00Z Sunday where,
area dependent, anywhere from 6 to 14 inches are expected with
higher totals in Southeastern Webster up to 2 feet. Blowing snow
can also be expected in these areas as well which could greatly
reduce visibility at times.

Lastly, a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for areas
surrounding the warnings where snowfall totals of up to 5 inches
are expected in Taylor, Wyoming, Raleigh, Fayette, Nicholas and
the lower elevations of Pocahontas county. The advisory for
Taylor county expires at 21Z this afternoon and remaining areas
will expire at 00Z Saturday.

Elongated vertically stacked low centered over SE New York will
continue to push a trough over our area this afternoon and
evening as the surface low rotates about the upper level low
with these features allowing precipitation to begin to
overspread our area this afternoon as a result. Moisture should
also increase over the area as the shortwave pushes south
bringing moisture from the Great Lakes, allowing for ample QPF
along the windward slopes under strong northwest flow leading
to potentially significant snow totals.

Temperatures today should increase steadily under warm air
advection through the evening hours keeping us warmer than the
previous night for most of the area. Precipitation could start
out as wet snow in some areas across WV but should quickly
transition to all rain by late this afternoon for the lower
elevations. Gusty winds are likely to persist overnight for much
of the area with gusts of up to 25 mph possible across the
entire territory with higher gusts of up to 50 mph possible
across the higher elevations in the mountains.

Any lingering heavy snow or rain should quickly become lighter
by Saturday afternoon in the mountains. Elsewhere precipitation
should quickly diminish from west to east by around 12Z.

Temperatures for Saturday will be a lot milder with high
temperatures in the upper 40`s to near 50 for the lowlands and
low 30`s to low 40`s across the higher mountain terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1209 PM Friday...

500-mb heights will begin to rise Sunday as high pressure
settles into the area, signaling the return of more seasonable
and drier weather across the region. Highs will rebound into the
middle and upper 50s across the lowlands and the upper 40s to
lower 50s in the mountains for Sunday afternoon. Some filtered
sunshine should also return. High pressure and dry
weather should continue into early Monday before the next system
brings another round of rain late Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1209 PM Friday...

The aforementioned low pressure system will continue to bring
rain into early Tuesday morning. Rain chances with this system
should continue into the early afternoon. The passage of a cold
front will then bring another return of chillier weather, with
afternoon temperatures only reaching the 40s, and even the 30s
in the higher elevations.

A southern stream system is expected to approach by Thursday,
Thanksgiving Day, bringing another round of rain to the region
areawide. Behind the system would be the return of northwest
flow and winterlike air for post-thanksgiving activities. Of
course, plenty of uncertainty remains, but we will have to
watch this potential as it unfolds. Confidence is low regarding
timing and impacts of this system at this time. Some models show
rain potentially transitioning into upslope snow showers
Thursday night or early Friday morning on the backside of this
system in the northern WV mountains.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 640 PM Friday...

Waves of precipitation will move across the area tonight, but
becoming more confined to the higher elevations of the
northeastern WV mountains after ~06z. Snow will be the most
likely P-type early, especially across the mountains and
foothills. Steadily warming temperatures will lead to a change
over to rain for elevations below 3,000 feet as the evening
progresses. The highest elevations of the northeastern
mountains could expect whiteout conditions due to strong wind
gusts and blowing snow.

That said, flight categories will be less than ideal with MVFR
and IFR being common across the area tonight; even LIFR is
likely across the highest ridges of the mountains due to the
aforementioned VIS restrictions, Wx and low ceilings. CIGs will
gradually lift from west to east tomorrow, but MVFR will be
prominent most of the day, with IFR/LIFR remaining in the
mountains.

WNW winds will be gusty overnight, especially in the mountains
where gusts between 30 kts and 45 kts will be common; the higher
end of the range most likely being observed above 3,500 feet.
Elsewhere, gusts between 10 and 25 kts will be common. Winds
will gradually start slacking off tomorrow as a disturbance to
our northeast pulls away and winds shift more WSW. Winds may
still be gusty at times in the mountains.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of restrictions in
precipitation will vary. Gusty winds will fluctuate.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  SAT 11/23/24
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EST 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    L    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
IFR ceilings at least in and near the mountains Saturday into
Sunday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Saturday for WVZ034-
     515>517-519-524.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Saturday for WVZ518-520-
     522-525.
     Blizzard Warning until 10 AM EST Saturday for WVZ523-526.
     Winter Storm Warning from 10 AM to 7 PM EST Saturday for
     WVZ523-526.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMC
NEAR TERM...28/LTC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...LTC