005
FXUS61 KRLX 030536
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
136 AM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler and mainly dry conditions through the weekend. Gradual
warming trend with a return of humidity next week, with more
widespread shower and thunderstorm chances increasing by midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 120 AM Sunday...

Today we have fairly zonal flow aloft and a bubble of high
pressure promoting dry air at most levels. We may see some
clouds today during the afternoon from a Cu field developing
potentially right around 040-050ft, however much of the area
will remain dry.

A disturbance to our south will advect in some chances for
rain showers, possible a storm or two to only the far southern
WV and southwest VA. Temperatures will remain below seasonable
with drier air and dewpoints only in the low 60s. The
aforementioned disturbance will move off toward the west through
the evening and overnight, but will not affect the area once
that occurs.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 120 AM Sunday...

Monday should remain fairly dry with upper level ridging
building in promoting more dry air. There is a trough sliding
in from the west across our area later in the day and for
Tuesday which may cause some diurnal activity on Tuesday.

Showers and or thunderstorms will be capable of developing
during the afternoon and evening mainly for the southern half
of the CWA where the trough sets up the best on Tuesday.
Temperatures will remain below seasonable for the period with
dewpoints rising slightly be midweek.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 120 AM Sunday...

By midweek, we have fleeting high pressure and more
disturbances around the region that will promote diurnal
activity, at the very least, during Wednesday and the rest of
the week with growing chances starting Wednesday afternoon and
for much of Thursday.

Friday will be less active and for the weekend as well where
just a few chances for shower or thunderstorm activity will
be possible for mainly the mountains due to the elevated heat
effect and a system riding up along the East Coast keeping
those chances across the mountains possible. The system may
spread some showers into our area although the chances remain
low (slight) at this time.

Temperatures will remain below seasonable, but will elevate by
Friday, becoming close to seasonable. Thereafter, a slight
warming trend kicks in for the weekend where by Sunday we might
be back to the low 90s, once again.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 120 AM Sunday...

Mainly VFR conditions prevail during this period, however some
valley fog may form near EKN/CRW/BKW which would give MVFR
conditons to CRW/BKW although EKN would be the lucky one to get
VLIFR for a short period, if the fog actually forms tonight.
Surface flow and right off the surface flow is strong enough to
deter most fog formation, so we will see.

Mostly clear skies will spill over to the afternoon at which
point may become FEW/SCT with a Cu field which would scour out
by the evening leaving mainly clear skies overnight into Monday
morning which would likely give EKN a good chance at fogging,
but not the rest.

Winds will be rather light, maybe up to 5kts out of the
northeast, turning more east-southeast by the afternoon.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, extent, and intensity of fog
this morning may vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   SUN 08/03/25
UTC 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
EDT 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    L    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    M    M    L    L    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR conditions are possible Monday and Tuesday mornings with fog
in the deeper valleys of VA/WV. Brief IFR conditions are also
possible Wednesday and Thursday in scattered afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JZ
NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...JZ