398
FXUS61 KRLX 181842
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
242 PM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front hovers to our south today, then another slowly
pushes through Wednesday and Thursday. A much stronger front
arrives next weekend, bringing a spell of cooler weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 145 PM Monday...

Warm and mostly dry weather today will turn a bit hotter for
Tuesday as high pressure shifts off to the east and southerly
winds develop ahead of the next approaching front. Before that
happens, however, we`ll have a calm and mostly clear night once
the diurnal cumulus field dissipates later this evening, with
more valley fog tonight, likely spreading more into the lowlands
compared to last night. Winds may stay up just enough in some
spots to prevent fog formation, but anywhere that can decouple
will be at risk of some valley fog.

Forecast highs tomorrow are 70s to lower 80s in the mountains,
and upper 80s to mid-90s in the lowlands. With lowland dew
points expected to get into the upper 60s to perhaps lower 70s
in the afternoon, heat index values will be well into the 90s
for much of the area, but should generally fall shy of the 100F
heat advisory threshold.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM Monday...

As the front slowly pushes towards the area, a few showers or
storms are possible across our SE Ohio counties Tuesday night
into Wednesday morning, but confidence is low at this point, and
coverage would probably be limited. With the accumulation of
moisture ahead of the front, day time heating, and some forcing
from the weak boundary, at least scattered showers and storms
will be possible across the entire area. With PWAT values in the
1.5-2.0 inch range ( and locally higher), any storms could
contain very heavy rainfall rates. Combined with the potential
for slow moving or training storms, some localized flooding is
possible and WPC has us in a marginal excessive rainfall risk
for Wednesday. Showers and storms should wind down Wednesday
night as we lose daytime heating and the front gradually pushes
out of the area. The increased cloud cover and expected PM
precipitation will tend to keep high temps a few degrees cooler
compared to Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 225 PM Monday...

Though the front is forecast to be through the area by the start
of the period, there could be enough lingering moisture and
possibly a trough extending west from Erin as she passes by off
the East Coast to allow for some isolated diurnal shower
activity, mainly in the higher terrain. Friday currently looks
to be dry for the area, and both days will linger around or just
a bit above normal on temperatures for the second half of
August.

A stronger front approaches on Saturday and passes through the
area Saturday night or Sunday. This will bring more area-wide
showers and storms on Saturday, with the picture less clear on
Sunday, due to increasing uncertainty on how quickly the front
will pass through the CWA. Regardless, while Saturday may remain
seasonably warm for areas that don`t see rain too early in the
day, models do agree on Sunday turning cooler, with further
cooling into the start of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 130 PM Monday...

As areas of morning valley fog burned off, a robust cumulus dec
has formed in the FL025-040 layer for much of the area, with a
few sites intermittently in and out of MVFR when it locally
thickens to a BKN coverage. The cumulus deck should continue to
lift gradually with the daytime heating, so instances of MVFR
ceilings should be ending. Winds will remain light, and mainly
from the north and northeast today.

Some more valley fog is expected tonight, and may be a bit more
widespread than last night, with impacts possible at several of
our sites. Winds tomorrow will shift SE-S`ly as high pressure
moves off to the east and another front closes in from the
northwest.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent and timing of valley fog tonight may
vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
Brief IFR conditions possible in showers and thunderstorms
Wednesday afternoon into Thursday.

IFR possible in river valley fog most mornings the rest of the
work week.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FK
NEAR TERM...FK
SHORT TERM...FK
LONG TERM...FK
AVIATION...FK