933
FXUS61 KRLX 250317
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1117 PM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front completes its passage through the area late
tonight. High pressure builds behind the front, supplying
predominantly dry and refreshingly cool weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 925 PM Sunday...

Raised dew points a bit overnight, mostly along the lines of the
latest central guidance, as the pace of the cold front and dew
point drop behind it are sluggish. The front was inching its way
through central West Virginia where, just ahead of it, several
strong to severe thunderstorms rolled through northern WV.

As of 755 PM Sunday...

A cold front was sliding east of the Ohio River early this
evening. Added PoPs to cover isolated to scattered showers, and
even isolated thunderstorms, forming along and ahead of, and
even just behind, the front this evening. This is supported by
the CAMs, with the most stout cell, heading into Ritchie
County, right near where the 18Z NAM12 has a 1.48 inch QPF
bullseye.

As of 1230 PM Sunday...

A moisture-starved cold front continues an eastward journey
through the forecast area today. The boundary was analyzed to be
crossing the Ohio River at the time of writing, with dropping
dewpoints down into the 50s noted at upstream observation
stations in its wake. That trend is anticipated to sluggishly
occur within the Central Appalachians this afternoon and evening
as the boundary swings through. The best chance for showers and
storms today will be to the east of the forecast area, where the
best pre-frontal southwesterly flow is still present. A few
lingering showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder may still
occur along the northeast WV mountains today, but will grow less
likely with time due to the encroaching front.

Upon the departure of the front, progged to be sometime
overnight into early Monday morning, cold air advection settles
in from the west/northwest under the guise of approaching high
pressure. This will refresh the area with cool and comfortable
temperatures more representative of Fall than the end of August.
Predominantly dry weather and daytime highs tumbling down into
the 60s and 70s awaits us for the start of the new work week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1230 PM Sunday...

High pressure triumphs over the area through the forecast period
and will continue to support unseasonably cool temperatures and
dry weather across the Central Appalachians. The center of the
high will still be back in the Upper Midwest starting Monday
night, but its influence will stretch down into the Ohio and
Mississippi Valleys, and will maintain its grip over the eastern
CONUS as it slides eastward through the course of the work week.

During which time, overnight cool temperatures settling over
warm river basins will infer patchy to dense river valley fog
each morning that will then gradually branch out into fair
weather cumulus fields for the afternoon timeframe. Refreshing
afternoon temperatures will range in the upper 50s to mid 60s
along our mountain zones and low to upper 70s across the lower
elevations. Chamber of Commerce weather will therefore be on tap
for this upcoming work week.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1230 PM Sunday...

High pressure remains at the forefront of the long term period,
serving up multiple days of dry weather across the region. This
feature is progged to be centered overhead by Thursday and then
meander over the Great Lakes region and the Ohio Valley through
the end of the forecast period. The repositioning of the high
will begin to stir up rising temperatures and slightly higher
dew points for the latter half of the week as low level flow
shifts out of the south. This will encourage high temperatures
to reach the low 80s once again in the Tri-State area, returning
us to a more seasonable pattern for this time of year.

As it currently stands, there remains very little agreement on
the timing and location of the next weather maker for here in
the forecast area, so therefore little to no rainfall is
anticipated after today`s cold front highlighted in the near
term period.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 755 PM Sunday...

The TAF period opens up in the midst of a cold frontal passage.

Isolated to scattered showers and even thunderstorms forming
along and east of a cold front crossing the Ohio River this
evening may impact TAF sites with brief MVFR visibility. This is
most likely CKB through 04Z, and EKN 02-06Z, where thunder is
also most probable.

A northwesterly flow of drier air in the wake of the cold front
overnight should limit fog formation. Current forecast is for
LIFR dense fog at EKN 08-13Z and 11-12Z CRW, with IFR as early
as 09Z there and 09-11Z CKB. Elsewhere, fog formation is not
expected overnight. The fog will burn off by 14Z EKN, 13Z CRW
and 12Z CKB. The fog will also battle stratocumulus, which is
forecast to lower to MVFR at EKN overnight, and then remain so
through Monday morning, before lifting into a VFR cumulus field
by Monday afternoon, the afternoon cumulus field expected
throughout the area.

Light west to southwest flow ahead of the front in and near the
mountains, and light west to northwest flow behind it over the
middle Ohio Valley, will become light west to northwest
throughout the area as the front sluggishly crosses tonight,
and will become a bit gusty from the west to northwest on
Monday. Light northwest flow aloft tonight will become light
west on Monday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and location of fog formation
overnight and lifting Monday morning may vary. MVFR
stratocumulus overnight and Monday morning may vary, but should
remain confined to areas in and near the mountains.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            MON 08/25/25
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    M    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    H

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
IFR possible in river valley fog each morning this week.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEK/TRM
NEAR TERM...MEK/TRM
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...MEK
AVIATION...TRM