009
FXUS61 KRLX 310807
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
307 AM EST Fri Jan 31 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Widespread rain continues today with periods of heavy rain
resulting in flooding concerns. Dry Saturday and Sunday.
Unseasonably mild next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 245 AM Friday...

Stratiform rain supported by warm air advection and a low level
jet associated with a triple point low pressure system to our
west is the main synoptic layout this period. This feature or
features will provide plenty of lift and ample moisture to
squeeze out a substantial amount of rain for this time of year.
The QPF amounts have not changed much, therefore the flood watch
area remains the same. Thinking the main locations that are
prone to getting some potential flood activity would be the
areas with snow pack and are expected to receive the most
rainfall amounts which is along the mountains, especially the
northeast mountains where the snow pack is the greatest.

Gusty winds will pick up this afternoon and with plenty of
mixing and warm air advection temperatures are forecast to
reach near/at 60 degrees or slightly above across the entire
lowlands and for the mountains a mild mid 40s to mid 50s for
them. Chances of rain will decrease by the afternoon from west
to east with the highest chances along the mountains through the
afternoon.

By late evening, chances of rain will drop to basically slight
to low chance PoPs into the night and overnight. After a cold
front passes through overnight lingering showers will be
possible along the mountains into Saturday morning. These
lingering showers could changeover to snow while temperatures
drops to below freezing along the northern periphery of our CWA
and in particular the northeast mountains along the highest
elevations, but accumulations will be little to none.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Friday...

Key Points:
* Cool Saturday, warming again for Sunday.
* River flooding remains a concern into Saturday night.

Light upslope precipitation may linger over the mountains early
Saturday morning while a cold front slides to the south. High
pressure then builds in from the north allowing drier conditions
to take hold for the rest of the day. Temperatures will be
cooler behind the front, with 40 to 50 degree highs in the
lowlands and mid 30s to 40s in the mountains.

Flooding remains a concern into Saturday night as rivers slowly
respond to prior rain and snowmelt. Waters should then trend
downward late Saturday through early Sunday.

A low pressure system moving east across southern Canada is
projected to lift the cold front back to the north as a warm front
on Sunday. Little to no precipitation is expected to occur during
the frontal passage. Warmer air will, however, flow into the area
and raise temperatures back above normal. Daytime highs are expected
to warm into the mid 50s to low 60s in the lowlands and mid 30s
to low 50s for the mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 300 AM Friday...

The first part of the work week should be fairly quiet, though a few
showers could accompany a front that descends through the area late
Monday into Monday night.

During the second half of the week, a system heads towards the
Great lakes and then continues northeast into Canada. While
timing details are still uncertain, this system and its
associated fronts are expected to introduce widespread
precipitation chances mid to late week.

Temperatures throughout the long term period should remain
above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1220 AM Friday...

Stratiform rain, heavy at times, will spread across the area
through this period before tapering off by this late evening to
only chances of rain being confined to the mountains into
tonight. Restrictions are due to mainly lower VIS under heavier
shower activity (MVFR or worse) with CIGs still hovering just
above MVFR at most sites. These CIGs will gradually lower in
height (some) through the morning, but then lift out to VFR by
the late afternoon. CIGs will then quickly lower in height and
restrictions will then follow under lower stratus overnight and
early Saturday morning.

A low level jet is pushing across the area this morning with
55KT at 850mb. This could promote some low level wind shear
across most sites if lulls in gusty conditions persist longer,
therefore left mention of llws in TAFs even with gusty conditons
on the surface. Most of the timing for shear will be through
the late morning and into the afternoon, however it will likely
persist across EKN through this period. If winds stay steady
elevated and do not bounce around, llws will be negated.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Onset and intensity of restrictions could
vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              FRI 01/31/25
UTC 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
EST 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    H    H    H    H    M    L    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    H    L    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    L    M    H    H    H    L    H    L    L    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    M    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    H    M    L    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR conditions are possible in low stratus late tonight into
Saturday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flood Watch through this evening for WVZ005>008-013>016-018-
     024>029-033-034-515-517.
     Flood Watch through Saturday morning for WVZ030>032-039-040-
     516-518>526.
OH...Flood Watch through this evening for OHZ086-087.
KY...Flood Watch through this evening for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...Flood Watch through this evening for VAZ004.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JZ/JLB
NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...JZ