951
FXUS61 KRLX 031904
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
304 PM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure traversing north of the area provides a pleasant
finish to the weekend. Humidity builds next week with the chance
for daily showers/storms returning beginning on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 250 PM Sunday...

Surface high pressure traversing north of the area today has
resulted in a mainly dry and pleasant finish to the weekend
across the forecast area, with temperatures running slightly
below normal amid a SCT-BKN Cu field. The one exception to dry
weather today has been across far southern WV and southwest VA
where pesky/stagnant low/mid level moisture amid weak forcing
surface and aloft resulted in ISO/SCT showers this morning.
Satellite trends show this is beginning to mix out, with just
the chance for a few ISO showers going forward. Highs today
will range from the upper 70s to mid 80s across the lowlands,
with upper 60s and 70s in the higher terrain, all amid a well
noted decrease in humidity. Occasional breezes up to 15-20 mph
are possible.

A quiet overnight is expected amid dry conditions and
temperatures similar to this morning (lowlands: mid 50s-mid 60s;
mountains: upper 40s and 50s). Some river valley fog develops
once again, but coverage should be quite limited to the
typically favored areas of southwest VA, eastern/southern WV.

Conditions on Monday will be similar to that of today, with
progged highs a couple of degrees warmer, along with plenty of
sunshine (FEW/SCT Cu field). While much of the area remains dry,
a few ISO showers and perhaps a storm cannot entirely be ruled
out across the far south/west given upper air pattern beginning
to funnel low/mid level moisture from the gulf back towards the
forecast area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 250 PM Sunday...

The aforementioned low/mid level moisture stream from the gulf
will continue to slowly overspread the forecast area Monday
night into Tuesday, then linger through much of the short term
forecast period. This combined with general synoptic scale
ascent from an eastward progressing upper trough will translate
to increasing shower/storm chances late Monday night through
Wednesday. Afternoon/evening hours would be the favored time
frame for the best chance of rain, but some activity at night is
also possible. Severe weather is not anticipated throughout the
period, but an isolated hydro issue or two is within the realm
of possibility given rather weak steering flow. PoPs Tuesday
range from ~ 20-50%, with Wednesday being the best chance for
rain (~ 30-60%). Given increased cloud cover, highs will run
near to slightly below normal, generally low/mid 80s lowlands,
with upper 60s and 70s in the mountains. Some valley fog is
possible each night depending on prior rainfall and overnight
cloud cover, with lows expected to be near seasonable values.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 250 PM Sunday...

The long term period will feature a return to a slightly less
active pattern as weak mid/upper level ridging attempts to
build into the region as the trough exits east. This translates
into a slow warming trend (highs approaching 90 in the lowlands
by the weekend) amid a decent amount of sunshine and the chance
for ISO/SCT diurnally driven (afternoon and evening)
showers/storms. Given weak synoptic forcing, activity would
generally rely more so on small scale forcing mechanisms,
favoring areas in/near the mountains for the higher probability
of precipitation (~ 20-40%). Overnight lows are progged for the
low/mid 60s across the lowlands.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 140 PM Sunday...

VFR conditions prevail today amid a SCT/BKN 035-050 cu field.
The vast majority of the area remains dry, although an ISO
shower remains possible across far southern WV and southwest VA.

Dry weather continues overnight amid some developing fog across
the deeper river valleys of VA and WV. Fog coverage is expected
to be slightly less extensive than last night, likely impacting
EKN again with restrictions, with a low end probability at CRW.
All other terminals remain VFR. Any fog that develops
lifts/dissipates from ~ 11-13Z, giving way to VFR amid a FEW/SCT
030-050 Cu field that develops ~ 15-16Z.

A general light easterly flow persists today, with occasional
breezes up to 15kts possible. Light and variable or calm flow is
expected tonight, with light southeast flow developing on Monday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, extent, and intensity of river
valley fog tonight may vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
Brief IFR conditions are possible at times Tuesday onward with
showers/storms, primarily during the afternoon and evening hours.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GW
NEAR TERM...GW
SHORT TERM...GW
LONG TERM...GW
AVIATION...GW