798
FXUS61 KRLX 190533
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
133 AM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and humid today. A cold front pushes through Wednesday and
Wednesday night. Much stronger cold front arrives for the
weekend, dropping temperatures significantly.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 130 AM Tuesday...

Today we will mainly be in the warm sector along a warm
frontal boundary draped across our area with southerly flow
promoting some warm air advection to get us up into the 90s
across the lowlands and 80s across the mountains. High pressure
will back off and weaken as the day progresses opening up the
area to become susceptible to convection, however that will
likely be confined to a small area.

This aforementioned warm frontal boundary is ahead of a cold
front associated with a traversing low pressure system across
the Great Lakes which is due to impact us on Wednesday. For
this afternoon and evening Hi-res models have some shower and
storm activity developing across our southeast Ohio counties and
maybe even northeast Kentucky. Some may get into West Virgina,
just across the Ohio River by late evening, but chances are
much lower for that solution.

With ample heating and modest instability, but no shear,
therefore the severe threat is not there, however general run
of the mill diurnal storms have potential to develop along the
boundary influence during the afternoon and evening. With PWATs
near 1.5-2.0 inches and modest moisture in the low to mid
levels, heavy downpours could be a thing, which could lead to
localized flash flooding, especially where there is poor
drainage or low lying areas that are known to flood. Activity
could take place at night as well, although will be less
efficient in initializing convection since there will be loss
of heating, however as the cold front progresses toward the area
chances of activity will rise going into the morning.

Temperatures overnight will be above seasonable in the mid 60s
in the mountains and very low 70s across the lowlands due to
continued warm air advection. The area will endure increasing
cloud coverage overnight into the morning becoming cloudy by
early Wednesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1155 PM Monday...

A cold front will very slowly push southeastward through the region
Wednesday and Wednesday night, providing for a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Models vary somewhat on the timing of the front and
when it will push south of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1155 PM Monday...

Questions remain as to how much moisture well be left behind the
cold front and whether there is enough for showers and
thunderstorms in the mountains for Thursday and Friday.

A strong cold front will then push through Saturday night or Sunday,
providing a significant change in temperatures for the end of the
weekend and into the beginning of the next work week. There is some
disagreement on the timing of the front between the models, but the
models agree in the significantly cooler temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 140 AM Tuesday...

Except for some valley fog that may affect EKN/PKB/CKB/CRW with
some IFR, maybe VLIFR at EKN, VFR will dominate this period.
Once valley fog clears out ths morning at around 13Z some Cu
clouds may develop this afternoon and then cloud coverage will
increase by the evening to where some low clouds and mostly mid
to high clouds will invade. Winds will be light and out of the
south today. Depending on what the winds do tonight will impact
whether or not valley fog will develop tonight as well.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent and timing of valley fog may vary
from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   TUE 08/19/25
UTC 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
EDT 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    L    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    L    M    M    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
Brief IFR conditions possible in showers and thunderstorms
Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night.

IFR possible in river valley fog most mornings the rest of the
work week.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RPY/JZ
NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...JZ