625
FXUS61 KRLX 040655
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
255 AM EDT Fri Sep 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Latest thoughts on thunderstorms and excessive heat today into
Saturday have been updated in Key Messages 1 and 2.

Updated 06Z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Thunderstorms will remain possible each day through this weekend.
Drier weather will return early next week.

2) Excessive heat and humidity will continue today. A cold
front will cross Saturday, bringing some relief.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Strong upper level ridging stretching across the southern half
of the country is set to undergo a bit of a transformation today
that will amplify shower and storm chances for the Ohio Valley
into the Mid-Atlantic. This modification to the upper level
pattern will suppress surface high pressure that hovered over
the area the past few days, opening the door for a wider area of
shower and storm chances here in the forecast area.

A stalled frontal boundary draped across the Great Lakes region
has been the catalyst behind the rounds of thunderstorm
complexes that has swept through the Upper Ohio Valley towards
the Delmarva coast each day, only sliding through our far
northern zones as a result of the surface high parked to the
south. With this feature now eroding, these complexes will be
capable of spreading across more of the forecast area, and could
come in multiple waves today, tonight, and into Saturday. Hi-res
CAMs tend to struggle with timing out storms and mapping their
projected paths within this regime, so radar and satellite
trends will be monitored for future forecast updates.

Another hot and muggy day on tap for today will be conducive for
approaching complexes to maintain their composure as they drift
south to southeastward, yielding potential for strong to severe
wind gusts along the way. The day one severe outlook has
expanded the slight risk further west into the CWA today,
capturing the wider scheme of storm capability with the loss of
the surface high. The risk for convection spills into tonight as
episodic rounds of showers and storms evolve off of the stalled
boundary.

The front is then slated to travel southward into the vicinity
of the Central Appalachians on Saturday, with on and off chances
of showers and storms prevailing into the start of the weekend.
This should gradually shift the severe risk south throughout its
journey towards the southeastern US, wrapping up altogether over
the forecast area heading into Sunday. From there, a stretch of
drier weather is set to reign over the region through the first
half of the work week.


KEY MESSAGE 2...

The ongoing heat wave remains firmly in place today, causing
oppressive afternoon and evening conditions. A Heat Advisory in
effect stretches into this evening as a result. Central
guidance forecast heat indices are in line with yesterday`s
observed values, with locations across the Tri-State area
stretching into the 103 to 105 range.

There is still some unknowns with temperature spread and
resulting heat index values for Saturday as we await the cold
frontal passage. Additionally, latest model runs suggest an
uptick in showers and storms throughout the day Saturday that
could keep the heat and humidity below advisory thresholds.
Enough uncertainty exists to currently refrain from an extension
to the Heat Advisory with this forecast issuance.

Once the frontal passage takes place this weekend, a relief from
the heat prevails heading into the start of next week.
Temperatures will tumble down closer to their climatological
norms for this time of year, but could be fleeting as long term
models hint at the return of the heat and humidity by the middle
of next week.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The mass exodus of thunderstorms from this past evening has
allowed for generally quieter flight conditions to return to our
airspace. However, that will likely yield the development of
river valley fog over the next few hours. Confidence was higher
of this notion for sites that received measurable rain, CKB and
EKN, but the potential could extend into PKB and CRW as well.
Tempo groups were included in the event development varies in
extent and intensity.

Fog erosion after daybreak then gives way to another day of
thunderstorm complexes dropping down from the Great Lakes region
during the afternoon and evening timeframe. Orientation of
storms will be on a similar scale to what was observed on
Thursday. VCTS was included for the concluding hours of the
valid TAF period for mountain terminals, with additional sites
being added depending on where storms set up for the day.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog development early this morning may vary
from forecast in extent and intensity.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   FRI 09/04/26
UTC 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
EDT 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    L    H    M    M    L    M    M    M    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR conditions possible in thunderstorms at times through
Saturday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>031.
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...05