737
FXUS61 KRLX 152341
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
741 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated Aviation forecast discussion. Additionally, an Air
Quality Alert has been issued for the state of Ohio from 7 AM
Thursday morning to midnight Thursday night.

158 PM update...
Low-level moisture increases on Thursday,
raising the potential for heat highlights in the lowlands with
somewhat thinner suspended smoke expected. Near-surface smoke
added for Thursday night and Friday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1.) Increasing low level moisture will yield near advisory level
heat indices Thursday. Will see periods of haze/smoke from
distant wildfires through at least Friday.

2.) Localized flash flooding and damaging wind gusts from
organized thunderstorms are possible Friday night through the
weekend, maximizing Saturday afternoon and evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

An expansive H500 ridge extending across the eastern two-thirds
of the country will maintain mostly dry conditions through
midday Friday across the forecast area. While strong subsidence
and solar radiation would typically maximize surface heating,
an elevated plume of wildfire smoke from Canadian fires will
somewhat filter incoming sunshine this afternoon. Deterministic
guidance keeps high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s
degrees across the lowlands, including the Metro Valley and
southeast Ohio, with upper 70s to mid 80s in the Northeast
Mountains. Combined with slightly drier surface dew points, heat
index values should remain just below advisory criteria this
afternoon.

On Thursday, the mid-level ridge retreats southeastward
and subsides, allowing a weak surface high to slide south. Low-
level wind fields will shift to favor enhanced moisture
advection around the western periphery of the high, bringing
surface dew points into the lower 70s. Ambient high temperatures
peaking in the lower to mid 90s in the lowlands, combined with
this higher boundary layer moisture, will drive peak heat index
values into the upper 90s to perhaps low triple digits on
Thursday afternoon. This will approach Heat Advisory thresholds
for portions of the lowlands. Wildfire smoke aloft is expected
to thin temporarily during peak heating Thursday, allowing
maximum insolation before a thicker plume drops south late in
the day.

By Friday, northwest flow aloft takes hold as the main
ridge axis shifts into the Intermountain West. This pattern
shifts a much denser smoke plume southward, introducing near-
surface smoke concentrations to southeast Ohio and northern West
Virginia. This thick haze and smoke loading will enhance
scattering of solar radiation and substantially suppress daytime
heating, keeping maximum temperatures in the 80s and largely
keeping heat index values remain short of advisory criteria on
Friday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A significant pattern transition occurs late in the week as the
upper ridge retrogrades westward, putting the Middle Ohio
Valley under northwest flow on the downhill side of the ridge. A
weak, mainly dry cold front will sag south into southeast Ohio
and northern West Virginia by Thursday afternoon. While a stray
shower or thunderstorm cannot be completely ruled out along the
boundary before sunset, moisture and forcing remain too limited
to alter the dry deterministic forecast from central guidance.

More substantial convective chances arrive Friday evening and
maximize on Saturday into Sunday as a potent shortwave trough
digs across the Great Lakes and forces a stronger cold frontal
passage. Ahead of the boundary, deep southwesterly transport
will draw an anomalous moisture reservoir into the region,
pushing precipitable water values near 2.0 inches, which
represents 90th+ percentile of local climatology. This
exceptionally moist column features very deep warm cloud depths,
supporting highly efficient warm rain processes capable of
producing extreme rainfall rates exceeding 2 inches per hour.
While steering flow aloft of 15 to 30KT from the west will keep
individual cells progressive, the low-level frontal boundary
will stall parallel to the upper-level flow, establishing a
setup for training convective bands from west to east across
West Virginia, southeast Ohio, and northeast Kentucky. Several
intervening days of dry conditions will somewhat mitigate
the threat.

In addition to localized flooding concerns, moderate deep-layer
shear on Saturday afternoon may support updraft organization
and linear convective segments. Steep low-level lapse rates and
high moisture loading will favor wet microburst development,
bringing a risk for damaging downburst winds. Storm threats may
linger into Sunday afternoon across the southern coalfields if
the front is slow to clear the region.

Overall confidence in timing and magnitude of both severe and
flash flood threats remain on the lower side at this temporal
distance.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The erosion of afternoon cumulus fields continues this evening,
leaving behind a hazy sky from Canadian wildfires. Another
signal for river valley fog development has been detected for
late tonight into Thursday morning, leading to IFR or worse
vsbys/ceilings for the majority of TAF sites until 12/13Z.
Generally quiet flight conditions persist during the day despite
the festering smoke. Surface flow remains light and variable
through the valid forecast period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog may vary from the forecast during the
predawn hours Thursday.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
EDT 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
Some visibility restrictions will be possible in smoke across
the northern terminals Thursday night into Friday, but should
generally remain above 3SM. Valley fog possible Friday morning.

Showers and thunderstorms return late Friday and maximize on
Saturday into Sunday ahead of a cold front, bringing a chance of IFR
restrictions in heavy downpours.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...Air Quality Alert from 7 AM Thursday to midnight EDT Thursday
     night for OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JP
AVIATION...05