264
FXUS61 KRLX 140013
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
813 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather stretches across the work week amid strong upper
level ridging. A moisture starved cold frontal passage around
midweek will bring cooler weather to close out the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 812 PM Monday...

IR Satellite imagery shows an area of low stratus cloud shield
affecting the northeast quadrant of our CWA this evening, in
response of the vicinity of a coastal low pressure off the Mid-
Atlantic seaboard. WV satellite imagery indicate very dry air in
the column advecting from the northwest as the aforementioned
low departs further east. Adjusted sky grids to match satellite
imagery. Then, use a combination of models to keep skies across
most of the area clear, opposite to general guidance. Despite of
clear skies, northerly flow 20-25 knots at H850 should create
enough ventilation to prevent dense fog formation. Patchy fog
may be possible along most protected river valleys.

Some guidance insists to bring low status clouds from the north
and along the OH River by 13-15Z Tuesday. Have low confidence
on this later assessment.


As of 200 PM Monday...

Ridging just west of the forcast area will maintain dry weather
this period. Low clouds will continue to form from north to
south along and just west of the mountains through tonight, in
a low level surge of cold advection in northwest flow around a
low pressure center along the middle Atlantic seaboard, and then
persist into Tuesday, even as that low drifts east, offshore,
overnight and Tuesday.

The middle Ohio Valley will have a mainly clear sky through
tonight. Stratus is then likely to develop toward dawn and
may persist through much of the daylight morning hours Tuesday,
before lifting and breaking up into a low cumulus field early
Tuesday afternoon.

Temperatures will bottom out just above normal tonight and top
out just above on Tuesday, which is just a little lower than
lows this morning and highs today, respectively. However,
temperatures may be hindered further Tuesday where stratus
persists longest.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM Monday...

Ridging dominates all levels just west of the area through
midweek, before drifting eastward, and overhead at least at the
surface, Thursday night. A mid/upper-level flat wave drives a
reinforcing Canadian high into the forecast area Wednesday and
Wednesday night, behind a moisture starved, roughly west to east
oriented cold front.

Temperatures will trend slightly lower, near normal for highs
Wednesday, and then a bit below normal on Thursday, likely not
getting out of the 60s across the lowlands. Lows will be near
normal Tuesday night, below normal Wednesday night with valley
frost possible in and near the northern mountains, and then a
bit further below normal Thursday night with surface high
pressure overhead. This is likely to result in more ideal
radiational cooling conditions, and a more widespread frost at
least across northern portions of the area, even a freeze in the
better sheltered northern mountain valleys.

Will continue to monitor forecast trends for potential future
frost/freeze headlines.

The reinforcing Canadian high will also bring in drier air, with
afternoon relative humidity percentages dropping at least down
to the 30s Thursday afternoon. However, light flow associated
with the high should keep fire spread potential at a minimum.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 200 PM Monday...

Ridging shifts east of the area at all levels Friday through
Saturday, allowing a full-lattitude mid/upper-level trough to
approach from the west. That trough will drive a surface cold
front through the area on Sunday, before crossing itself Sunday
afternoon and night. Models diverge on the exodus of this
mid/upper-level trough Sunday night and Monday, the more
progressive Canadian allowing mid/upper-level ridging to build
from the west on Monday, while the GFS and ECMWF slow the
feature down and close off a mid/upper-level low over the
northeastern states.

After a continuation of dry weather, with a warming trend,
Friday into Saturday, the amplified system is likely to pull
enough Gulf moisture northward ahead of it for showers Saturday
night through Sunday night. This timing is likely to be better
resolved in future forecasts, but the showers are most likely
during the day on Sunday.

There could be a thunderstorm in the middle Ohio Valley
Saturday evening if the front gets close enough. By contrast,
there could be a thunderstorm Sunday afternoon if the front is
slow enough to allow sufficient diurnal heating ahead of it, the
amplified system somewhat offsetting the lowering autumn sun
angle. Central guidance leans toward the faster scenario, with
just the slight chance for a thunderstorm Saturday night.

Monday will bring drying and clearing given a more progressive
solution, or clouds and even the chance for showers given a
slower, more amplified mid/upper-level trough.

Temperatures climb above normal Friday through Saturday night
ahead of the incoming system, and then back down to and below
behind it early next week. Relative humidity percentages will
drop at least down to the 30s again Friday afternoon. However,
flow will again be light. Flow will increase a bit from the
south on Saturday, but so should dew points and, albeit to a
lesser extent given the higher high temperatures, minimum
afternoon relative humidity percentages.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 735 PM Monday...

Satellite and METARs observations indicate MVFR ceilings extending
from the northeast mountains (affecting EKN) west to PKB, while
the rest of the area is under clear skies at the moment of
writing. Light northerly flow will become calm once the lower
atmosphere decouples later this evening, except at higher
elevations where winds may remains light with a northerly
component.

Guidance shows mixed solutions as the low pressure center along
the Mid-Atlantic seaboard departs further east. As it moves
away from the region, will expect less influence over the local
skies overnight tonight. Therefore, dispute model solutions
bringing IFR/LIFR ceilings overnight at PKB, HTS and CRW.
Instead keep VFR conditions at these sites through 12Z.

Satellite trends indicate dry airmass at the mid and lower
levels is filtering in across SE OH and west and south of the
aforementioned cloud shield.

Despite clear skies, H850 northerly winds at 20-25 knots will
create good ventilation, negating dense river valley fog
development for the most parts of the area. Dense fog may be
possible along the northeast mountains where low status meet the
ground. Coded IFR conditions under low stratus and fog at EKN,
CKB and BKW late overnight into Tuesday morning.

Guidance continues showing at least MVFR ceilings along the OH
River and east Tuesday morning. Since confidence runs low, kept
these areas under VFR conditions under high pressure.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to Low.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Formation of MVFR stratocu, along the OH
River and east to CRW and PKB overnight tonight and early
Tuesday morning, and then improvement midday Tuesday, may vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            TUE 10/14/25
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    L    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
Patchy IFR river valley fog is possible each morning the rest of this
week.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM/ARJ
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...ARJ